Craig

Wintery blast on the way

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 27th November)

Best Days: Keen surfers Surf Coast magnets tomorrow morning and beaches to the east early Friday, protected spots early Monday, early Tuesday and possibly early Wednesday

Recap

Poor conditions across all locations yesterday with strengthening onshore winds and a building windswell, much cleaner today but smaller, mixed in with an inconsistent SW groundswell. The Surf Coast magnets were 2ft+, with bumpy 3-4ft waves to the east for desperate surfers.

This week and weekend (Nov 28 – Dec 1)

The outlook over the coming days isn't great, but you'll be able to find an OK (if you're desperate) wave across both coasts working the winds.

Tomorrow will be clean on the Surf Coast through the morning with a NW offshore, but the swell will be small and back to 2ft, while a shallow S/SE change is due early afternoon.

The mid-period SW swell due later in the day has been brought forward a little, with the low linked to it currently weakening south-west of us, but it will continue to generate a weaker W/SW fetch through our swell window into this evening.

We should see the swell arrive late morning tomorrow and building to 3ft on the Surf Coast into the afternoon, 4-5ft+ to the east, peaking overnight and easing slowly Friday. Easing sets from 3ft and 4-5ft+ respectively are due and an early morning E/SE breeze should open up a few options east of Melbourne, before shifting to the S/SE mid-late morning.

Saturday looks poor for both regions with an easing mid-period swell and moderate to fresh S/SW breeze.

We then look towards our cold blast of onshore winds and snow from Sunday into mid-next week, with a strong node of the Long Wave Trough currently moving in from the west. This node is expected to stall just east of us into the weekend and early next week, slowly weakening later week.

This will project a series of polar fronts up and into us from Sunday through at least mid-week if not later next week.

They'll be of various strength and projected between our south-western and southern swell windows, producing moderate to large pulses of SW-S/SW swell from Monday through Friday.

The first swell is expected to build Monday, produced by an initial broad and strong polar front projecting from the polar shelf Saturday, south of WA, up and into South Australia on Sunday.

It'll be initially well aimed and then move out of our swell window, resulting in a moderate sized mid-period SW swell. As this swell builds, a broad and elongated but weaker polar front will project strong S/SW winds up and into us, generating an additional S/SW swell to the mix.

Size wise building surf from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east is expected Monday, building to 4-5ft and 6ft to occasionally 8ft later in the day respectively. Winds will be W/NW early Monday, shifting W/SW mid-morning and strengthening, limiting surfing options.

A secondary front projecting up and towards us Tuesday should steer winds back to the W/NW early Tuesday with similar amounts of swell to later Monday. Winds will shift strong W/SW again from mid-morning with an additional increase in size through the afternoon, holding Wednesday. Winds look an issue and W/SW-SW, but we'll have a closer look at this on Friday.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 9:19am

Can it get fucked. Language is validated

I am the bone

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 9:34am

Mate, you should sign-up for one of those Tulla wave pool foundation memberships or something, you need to get in the water ASAP This sudden warming- subsequent flow on effect thingy (My official term) looks like it's going to linger, so far it's bloody destroying our typical summer weather pattern.

How long is it likely to continue influencing our weather Craig?

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 10:37am

I have to work next weekend so expect 3-4ft peelers and a light offshore.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 11:59am

But your having a win no?

I am the bone

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 3:51pm

No! I most definitely am not!

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 9:40am

After a reasonable start this has been by far the worst spring in my time on the morn pen. Extended forecast looks cooked too

gazzee's picture
gazzee's picture
gazzee commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 12:57pm

Save a goat sacrifice Viclocal....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 1:18pm

Haha, feel for you guys a little who look forward to the warmer weather, water and NE winds of spring.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 27 Nov 2019 at 2:10pm

Time, time, time, see what's become of me
While I looked around for my possibilities
I was so hard to please

But look around, the leaves are brown
And the sky is a hazy shade of winter

Hear the Salvation Army band
Down by the riverside
It's bound to be a better ride
Than what you've got planned
Carry your cup in your hand

And look around you, leaves are brown now
And the sky is a hazy shade of winter

Hang on to your hopes, my friend
That's an easy thing to say, but if your hopes should pass away
Simply pretend
that you can build them again

Look around, the grass is high
The fields are ripe
It's the springtime of my life

Ah, seasons change with the scenery
Weaving time in a tapestry
Won't you stop and remember me
At any convenient time?
Funny how my memory skips
While looking over manuscripts of unpublished rhyme
Drinking my vodka and lime

I look around, leaves are brown now
And the sky is a hazy shade of winter
Look around, leaves are brown
There's a patch of snow on the ground
Look around, leaves are brown
There's a patch of snow on the ground
Look around, leaves are brown
There's a patch of snow on the ground

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 11:58am

Cleaning up nicely on the Peninsula.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 12:34pm

Yes Ben it was also offshore this side, then went glassy - there was a troughy development that probably saw the Cape onshore early, moved through SC by 9:30am, turning light southerly. Wonder if this calm on the Peninsula is preceding that change as well?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 12:51pm

Still bumpy but. South Channel has it as around 5 knot North. Not reaching the other side as per usual.

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 12:54pm

Glassy AF on the bay.

I am the bone

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 3:20pm

Nice pic. Used to dream the Swan had waves when growing up, had to be content with dinghy sailing and windsurfing!
Did that drive up past Frankston from the ferry in September, following the Bay - I reckon there'd have to be a couple of spots you could surf in a strong westerly?
Also speaking of westerlies, if you guys go around WP all the way to the east, is it an option to head around the other side of those two islands to your south, and end up on a coast that behaves like our one? Just a thought, looking at the maps.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 6:37pm

How far along you talking VL? There’s novelty waves in Porto on a big swell, generally protected and then theres the bay waves in Morno on a howling NW’er?

I am the bone

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 8:29pm

It must've been coming down the hill at Mt Martha, looking north. I could see sandbars and thought "that's a nice setup". If you get a W or NW blowing, surely there would be a wave? Bonus: imagine trying to shape a board just for these conditions. Maybe floaty, quick turn ability... something unconventional?

As far as along the other way - east of Wonthaggi? Too much of a mission? We did Baw Baw after ferry this winter and it was more of a drive than I thought it would be.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 12:31pm

Also NC reporting on other surf site that Winki walkway is a no go, but similar structure will be constructed for the Bells comp to assess it, so it's a yes go as well??