Craig

Poor end to the week, much better from the weekend

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 20th November)

Best Days: Surf Coast late morning Saturday through mid-afternoon, Sunday morning Surf Coast, Monday morning

Recap

Yesterday's reinforcing pulse of SW swell provided a bit more size than expected, to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula with early clean conditions around Torquay, bumpy elsewhere and improving to the east into the afternoon.

The swell has eased off into today, back from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east with more favourable winds and conditions for exposed beaches. It was a bit morning sick early but has since straightened up.

This week and weekend (Nov 21 - 24)

Tomorrow still looks like a lay day, with Friday more than likely also being a miss, but there's a bit more swell expected.

With the swell bottoming out tomorrow along with strong N/NE winds, any surf left will likely be blown out. Winds will shift more N/NW through the early afternoon while easing slightly ahead of a strong SW change.

A lingering and moderate SW'ly is expected on Friday, likely W'ly early around Toquay along with a small mid-period W/SW swell.

The mid-period swell has been generated by a broad, but distant and relatively weak fetch of W/SW winds south-west of WA the last couple of days. Only a minimal 1-2ft wave is expected on the Surf Coast magnets Friday, 3ft+ to the east but onshore.

Of greater importance is the W/SW swell event into the weekend and early next week.

As pointed out on Monday, a strong and multi-staged frontal progression will roll in from the south-west of WA, forming today and continuing slowly east through the end of the week and weekend.

The initial stages of the progression will be strongest, with winds now forecast to be mostly gale-force today and early tomorrow, weakening as secondary fetches of strong W/SW winds push closer towards us and more into our western swell window on top an active sea state.

This will produce a moderate sized W/SW swell that's expected to build slowly Saturday and likely peak early Sunday, mixed in with mid-period energy on Sunday from the secondary front projecting towards us.

Saturday morning will start slow and only around 1-2ft or so on the Surf Coast with an offshore NW breeze, with the swell building slowly into the afternoon and reaching 3ft+ by late afternoon but with mid-afternoon SE sea breezes ahead of a stronger S/SW'ly change late afternoon.

Sunday is the pick with the peak in swells coming around 4ft on the Surf Coast (4-5ft swell magnets) and 6ft+ to the east (8ft cleanups swell magnets) with a light morning W/NW offshore, giving into S/SE sea breezes.

Next week onwards (Nov 25th onwards)

A flurry of smaller, secondary fronts pushing in from the west on the weekend will soften the easing trend into Monday, followed by a more distant and stronger polar low (generating a long-period and inconsistent swell for Wednesday) though coming back to Monday, winds will be great with local offshore N'ly breezes early, shifting W/NW late morning ahead of a S/SW change into the afternoon. Easing sets from 3-4ft are expected on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east.

Tuesday will be smaller along with a possibly early W'ly around the Surf Coast, SW elsewhere. Wednesday's inconsistent swell should boost wave heights slightly to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 4ft+ to the east with what looks to be early variable winds. More on this Friday and any change to the weekend's and Monday's outlook.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 2:10pm

Can SAM fuck off with it’s negativity. Looks like it almost cheers up only to get upset again. Get it some molly stat.

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 2:11pm

How accurate is that forecast. Surely if a negative is predicted, it’s a matter of how negativity? It’s unlikely it would go the other way?

I am the bone

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 5:58pm

Hey Craig
I was at Gunnamatta this morning and there were blue bottles everywhere, the most i’ve seen in Vic, at least 3-4 every linear meter of the high tide mark.
Any idea why so many?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 6:43pm

Ha ha I logged on to ask the same question as fridge above ^^^^
Last night bluebottles on the sand

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 6:43pm

Rare occurance

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 6:45pm

Anecdotally been told there not the same as the Nothern blue bottles. Happens round this time of year but not particularly every year

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 6:46pm

A one to remember was the one about 5 years ago, can’t remember to be exact, the mass failed mutton bird migration. Dead ones everywhere

I am the bone

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 6:52pm

Stepped on a bluebottle with a pop over this way shortly after stepping on the sand today.

Nick I remember that vividly - my young one was 13 and just getting into his surfing, we would go to one of the beachies and dead, emaciated, starved muttonbirds everywhere. 2 years after Fuku... study their migration patterns

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 8:09pm

Yes I can remember that Nick, not a pleasant sight was it.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Wednesday, 20 Nov 2019 at 9:16pm

blue bottles on west coast too but not as many as Blairgowrie today

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 10:44am

Very interesting, can't be from the East Coast and must have spawned somewhere more locally.

Remembering that blue bottles are at the whim of the wind, ie they get blown either left or right by their sails, maybe from down southern to south-east Bass Strait?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 10:51am

Surely everyone entered the water at the same time on the beaches i.e Monday and it was persistent Westerlies. Can’t forgot that.

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 10:55am

I thought this was yesterday or even Tuesday? So after Monday's change and Tuesday's southerly winds?

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 1:52pm

yesterday yea

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 2:05pm

At 1pm, Aireys Inlet was 38 degrees, whilst Cape Otway was 17 degrees.

Haven't seen that kind of temp difference across such a small region in ages. 

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 5:00pm

Interesting too note, on the MP when that kicked round to the NW, the wind temp got considerably hotter before the change proper came with the cool air.

I am the bone

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 5:06pm

Avalon went from a temp of 40.4 at 1:30pm to an apparent temp of 9.1 at 4:30pm. Crazy.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 7:17pm

love Vic, never boring weather, always big changes.

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 2:33pm

The mutton birds didn't show up at all this year. Only a few starved ones observed apparently, not the usual flock of 40-50,000.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 2:48pm

Heard about this, seen the exhausted ones washed up on the East Coast here as per normal, and randomly one on the far West Coast of SA, well off track!

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 8:59pm

totaly left of field here. i have a pyzel phantom very good looking board...surfs like poo because it doesnt hold rail on bottom turn.3/10
i also have an old pyzel bastard surfs ausome the bigger the better it peforms yet still works in small surf just a little slugish.7/10.
does any one have a pyzel ghost in square tail..and rate it...i dont want to spend 950 clambs to find out if its no good.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 10:05am

Interesting to hear that pigdog. I've had my Phantom skip out quite a few times bottom turning. I thought it was just because I'm a kook but maybe there's more to it than that.

Usually only happens when it's bigger (say 4-5ft+) and/or lumpy.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 7:48pm

i bought my phantom as an allrounder Bnkref. i have large fins for hold. the tail of the board is not that wide i thought it would have hold...it doesnt even hold a bottom turn in a good 3/4 foot surf. i was going to buy another weirdo ripper because i rate that board as one of the best allrounders made 8/10. im worried a pyzel ghost needs oversize surf for it to work properly. i also have had a lost quiver killer in the last 12 months gave it 4 surfs and no good...from the moment i stood up the first time it felt like a pice of shit. 2/10. all these problems are my fault for not getting custom.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 10:14am

Bigger fin in the tail perhaps?

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 10:41am

I use large fins on the Phantom. And I guess it's meant to be a small wave board. I'm a bit bigger (6'2, 80kg) and on a 6'0 so maybe I'm not getting crouched enough or something.

Have never really had it happen on other boards. Still love it though. Goes great.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 1:59pm

Gary surfs a ghost.
6'2" length with all the other girth dimensions the same as the 6'1" stock model. Glassing 6+6 on top and 6 on bottom, futures fin setup.

Gary loves it but it's like a racecar with fairly hard suspension: drive it well and you'll go faster than you ever have before, drive it poorly and you'll be punished for it.

Gary's all for a bit of punishment when he's been a bad boy, so gets off on that sort of thing, but appreciates it's not to everybody's tastes.

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 2:00pm

Round tail BTW

Never had any issue with hold off the bottom or when on rail.

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 2:15pm

Hmmm, maybe Gary G is really JJF?

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 2:21pm

JJF's alter ego = GGF.

Gary
G
Facey-lord

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Clivus Multrum's picture
Clivus Multrum's picture
Clivus Multrum commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 2:25pm

I always figured Gary G was more of a soft top guy, much to the displeasure of the bloke underneath him

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 2:44pm

Gary always rides a round tail

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 2:47pm

Funnily enough, JJF once spent some time under Gary.

JJF came to Gary looking for a double entendre, so Gary gave him one

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 2:56pm

Awesome

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 4:57pm

950$ on a board. Bugger that.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 7:52pm

$650 second hand going by market average.
my first surfboard i paid for when i was 16 was an oke custom for $400 in 1994.