thermalben

Very large, windy swell inbound

Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 14th October)

Best Days: Wed: fun though inconsistent new swell with light winds. Sat/Sun: very large swell, though very windy. Protected locations only. Mon/Tues/Wed: light winds, rapidly easing swells, initially very good for the Surf Coast. 

Recap: Wave heights have been very small over the last few days, best suited to locations east of Melbourne where winds have also been mainly offshore. A small long period groundswell (leading edge of 20 seconds) arrived overnight Saturday and provided small inconsistent sets on Sunday though no major size was reported across central Victorian coasts. Today is even smaller, with light N’ly winds now around to the south in the lee of a shallow change. 

Stunning conditions on the Mornington Peninsula today (via our Portsea surfcam)

This week (Oct 14 - 17)

These notes will be brief as Craig’s on annual leave.

It’s always fun jumping into the Victorian forecast when you haven’t looked at the Southern Ocean synoptics for a while. So, let’s get stuck into things, as there’s a lot to digest. 

Right now we’re in the midst of a summeresque spell of tiny surf, and it won’t change much into Tuesday with very small waves expected early morning, ahead of a minor pulse of long period swell through the day from a distant polar low that formed near Heard Island on Friday. 

Model guidance has the Torquay region building late afternoon and overnight and peaking through Wednesday, though the large travel distance will result in very long breaks between the sets. Given my tight timeline today I haven’t been unable to hindcast this system properly so I’ll leave Craig’s estimate as is - occasional 3ft sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets, bigger near 4-6ft across exposed beaches east of Melbourne. 

Winds will be light and variable under a weak synoptic pattern so it’ll clean everywhere. The main downside will be the very long breaks between sets - as this will be the only swell source in the water, it’ll be tiny to flat between waves.

Thursday will see a slow easing trend, but with strengthening W/NW winds as a powerful Southern Ocean low develops south of Western Australia. This low will undergo several stages at storm force strength, and is therefore shaping up to deliver a couple of days of very large waves across the Victorian coast.

Friday will for the most part see very windy conditions with gale force NW tending W’ly winds, and mainly small surf across the Torquay stretch ahead of a possible afternoon kick in size (though the bulk size will arrive over the weekend). Given the likely strength of the wind - 30-40kt gusts at times - it’ll be hard to recommend anything but I’ll fine tune the specifics on Wednesday incase the new swell is sped up in later model runs. 

Melbourne surfers will also be able to consider a local stormy surf on Friday once the winds increase up over 30kts. 

This weekend (Oct 18 - 19)

This week's Southern Ocean low looks incredible on the synoptics this week.

Initially, it’ll move its alignment around slightly within the swell window (from Tuesday thru’ early Thursday), but from Thursday afternoon onwards a powerful secondary development at polar latitudes will intensify a broad core fetch of 45-50kts winds at the tail end of a very broad frontal system, and this will provide the biggest and best waves of the swell event - also assisted by this development’s closer proximity to the Victorian coastline, and slightly more SW thru’ S/SW position in the swell window. Though, it does appear that this part of the cycle may be slightly better aimed towards South Australian than Victoria. 

However, local winds will be really strong all weekend, initially W’ly on Saturday, then W/SW Sunday, whilst gradually weakening. Both mornings should see very early periods of W/NW winds in Torquay but this may only just clean up the wave faces - the broader lineups at exposed spots will probably remain a little wobbly thanks to (by this time) three days of persistent westerly gales through Bass Strait.

As for size - the first pulse should push from 4-6ft in Torquay Saturday morning to 6-8ft during the day, whilst the second pulse will arrive overnight Saturday, and early morning should be somewhere in the 8-10ft range at Surf Coast swell magnets (of course, not all locations pick up this size), before easing steadily during the day. Given the expected winds, it’ll be a weekend for protected spots. 

East of Melbourne will be huge, building from a stormy 6-8ft to 10ft Saturday and then pushing 12ft+ early Sunday before easing back in strength. Again, protected locations in and around Western Port will have the only rideable options. Or, you can consider any one of the many Bayside locations for a local stormy. 
 
Next week (Oct 20 onwards)

Nothing major in the pipeline for next week, just a steadily easing swell from the weekend with light variable winds for a few days thanks to a relaxing pressure under a high pressure system. 

A series of long period, long range W/SW swells are expected from about Thursday onwards, generated by a broad, strong pattern of fronts and lows centred in and around the Heard Island region later this week and over the weekend. They’re much better aimed for Indonesia, but will nevertheless kick up some small (but inconsistent) Surf Coast waves later next week, with better options (winds pending) east of Melbourne.

More on this in Wednesday’s forecast. 

Comments

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 3:42pm

Huff too many orchies last night Ben? Craig would be rolling in his grave if he knew what time this forey came out today. Good news about the swell though, cheers cob

UTFS

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 3:43pm

Eh? I realise I'm too old to be down with the kidz any more, but what the fuck are "orchies" and how do you "huff" 'em?

And, I've never heard a forecast abbreviated as "forey" before. Urban Dictionary offers a few alternative "forey" definitions, most of which are a little uncomfortable for a surfing website.
​​​​​​​https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=forey

Though I do agree, what a forecast! Bloody good looking charts today.

dastasha's picture
dastasha's picture
dastasha commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 6:27pm

"huffin orchies while doin the forey"

Thanks, you just made me spit coffee all over my monitor...

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 10:42pm

Classic!

If you argue with a fool long enough you will loose sight of who the fool really is........

bradpitted69's picture
bradpitted69's picture
bradpitted69 commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 4:59pm

Dont listen to the tubbabird (hes never actually been shacked before) Benny. I like how youve been playing hard to get with the forey. Been that keen on the forey all day. Almost beggin for it. Helluva forey, fully froffin.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 5:00pm

VicLocal now’s your chance, winki all by yourself this weekend! Hurrah!!!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 5:36pm

paging Gary G, come to the Victorian forey

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 5:37pm

Also, reset the hype clock to zero and...start!

See you all at Fishos

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 7:50pm

Gary’s been on his yearly pre-schoolies study trip to the most exposed parts of Victoria’s coastline but heard the siren song of the forey

It’s one of the things that keeps Gary coming, and coming, and coming, at Swellnet.com.

It’s not just the deft touch shown by Craig in his workmanlike handling of the forey like clockwork 3x per week. Gary’s surely not the only person on the subscriber list who loves it when Ben and Craig tag team it, and he is sure that Ben is titillated to deliver the large and sustained climax contained within the forey this week.

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 9:29pm

Well said Gary G! Nothing gets my big narrow gun out of the shed like the forey delivered by the holy craigos himself. That being said I still get a semi gun for ben’s foreys

UTFS

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 11:05pm

lol Gold!

and i learned a new word today :)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 15 Oct 2019 at 4:52pm

New lines showing on the Peninsula.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Tuesday, 15 Oct 2019 at 6:55pm

Will be looking a bit different to that over the weekend.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 10:10am

Terribly inconsistent this morning, but there are waves.. below image from Torquay around 7am.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 10:12am

Clean and straight at 13th Beach with threatening clouds off shore.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 12:44pm

Less photos, for foreys, please !

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 1:57pm

Just got an email from Randall (who send a message through the website but didn't leave an email address): "So, just drove all the way down to Torquay for the 2 -3 ft waves you said are happening. And hey! It's all but flat, I've been watching for about an hour now. It's ONE foot, on the sets."

Yeah, it's super inconsistent (as noted in the surf report and also suggested in Monday's forecast).

However, I just logged into the Torquay surfcam and here's what I saw within ten seconds - and Bells would be a little bigger. 

Critter's picture
Critter's picture
Critter commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 2:26pm

Ben, I’m all for you tipping on Randall but I feel like you’re just toying with us now! Where’s the Wednesday forey! My refresh button is about to break...

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 2:36pm

Working on the forey right now.

Also looking at the weather charts.

HKFC's picture
HKFC's picture
HKFC commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 2:37pm

Drag Craig back from the doof to help crunch some synoptics! Vicco froth levels are at an all time high.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 2:45pm

Randall uses Hawaiian scale... don’t be Randall

Critter's picture
Critter's picture
Critter commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 2:41pm

If when Craigos returns he doesn’t accompany his arrival with a photo album of a surf trip or a bush doof I’ll feel like I’ve been cheated on.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 2:56pm

Forey went off over the weekend, well not in that kinda way, still kept a lid on it.

Onto the next swell now..

Kevchecksurf's picture
Kevchecksurf's picture
Kevchecksurf commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 3:14pm

Chance of a forecast?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 3:15pm

I'm doing it now mate, it'll be up around 4pm.

To receive an email when they go live, please edit your user settings here: www.swellnet.com/user

cuddlypandasbc's picture
cuddlypandasbc's picture
cuddlypandasbc commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 3:50pm

Forey @ 4

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 3:57pm

Went out with young one late morning for a while, drove past the TQ/Drain area and yes, it did look 1ft or so between sets, so went somewhere else. There were a couple of head high sets and we ended up a fair way offshore, looked moreso because of the lulls.
Grey clouds in the sky and westerly getting into it, sheltered by the cliffs - felt like a Vic winter's day, quite nice really. But I did see head high sets.