Craig

Large surf easing into the weekend

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 18th September)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday exposed beaches, Saturday afternoon Surf Coast, Sunday

Recap

Average onshore waves across most locations yesterday morning with a good sized S/SW groundswell, improving into the afternoon around Torquay as winds eased back and the swell straightened up.

This morning the surf is a little smaller again but much cleaner with 3ft waves on the Surf Coast and waves to 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Later this afternoon our first pulse of SW groundswell is due to fill in, kicking the Surf Coast to 3-5ft late and 6ft+ to the east as winds go sea breezey.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Sep 19 - 22)

This afternoon's pulse of SW groundswell was generated by a pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale NW winds moving through our swell window, with a much larger S/SW groundswell due after dark from a stronger storm-force fetch of trailing W'ly winds.

This fetch was longer lived and well angled in our swell window, with the long-period swell arriving overnight and peaking early tomorrow morning to 6-8ft across the Surf Coast and the 8-10ft range on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula.

The swell will ease all day and winds are going to be tricky to work around, only favouring selected spots with a moderate to fresh NE tending N/NE breeze. Into the afternoon as the swell eases more options should open up, more so Friday with the swell easing further from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east under strong but easing N/NE winds.

A low point in swell is expected Saturday morning, ahead of a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell into the afternoon and Sunday morning.

The source of this swell is a strong but distant polar front projecting up and into WA before weakening rapidly when pushing under WA. The strength of this system has been downgraded a touch since Monday resulting in a slight downgrade in the expected size.

We should see the Surf Coast building to the 3ft range into the mid-late afternoon and 4-5ft+ to the east and winds are still a little uncertain as the models diverge on a trough moving through Friday evening. The morning might be dicey but another approaching front looks to swing winds to the W/NW through the afternoon with the building swell.

Sunday looks great as the swell eases back from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively with N/NW winds persisting most of the day.

Following this there's nothing too significant on the cards for next week at this stage with the size slowly trailing away with less consistent long-range mid-period swells on the cards. Therefore make the most of the coming days and weekend.

Comments

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 18 Sep 2019 at 12:52pm

NB, your on! Go, go, go ;) Any banks?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 18 Sep 2019 at 2:27pm

Had a couple today, but that swell is kicking right this second

I am the bone

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Wednesday, 18 Sep 2019 at 6:52pm

hey De Bone you going to give 10 ft + sharky's a go tomozza I remember a few years back you were out there, maybe it was only 7.5 ft to 8.7 ft though
Be fun to go and watch 12 to 15 ft HH's in the morning

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 19 Sep 2019 at 7:46am

Could be the day of days at sharkies jbay. HH? Gonna have a stab and say Chevs?

I am the bone

denchy's picture
denchy's picture
denchy commented Thursday, 19 Sep 2019 at 10:49am

A few dissed Geoff.Baun for questioning the models on Monday.
Well guess what. The models were pretty much correct

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 19 Sep 2019 at 1:35pm

How’d people go today? Came in a bit under by the looks of it.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 19 Sep 2019 at 3:29pm

I'd love to throw up a photo i took today of a certain place of a bloke in a thumping 10ft pipe but I don't think the regulars would be too happy.
I'd say it was a good call by Craig. 6-8 with very odd 10 footer. Inconsistent

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 19 Sep 2019 at 8:05pm

Which coast was that GF?

Saw a photo of a spot east of Melbourne firing.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 19 Sep 2019 at 8:10pm

MP

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 19 Sep 2019 at 8:42pm

Right. We’re probably talking about different photos of the same spot.

Would have been big out west today.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 19 Sep 2019 at 4:46pm

Yeah looks like it was a bit under expectations everywhere. Interesting as last week’s swell from that small tight low tracking away provided similar sized surf while this much larger and longer lived low didn’t. Maybe a touch too zonal...

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 6:13am

Looks like South Channel is offline..

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 7:31am

How you doing Nick? Heard/saw ya injury, hopefully heal up quick!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 9:49am

Hah, news travels fast! Actually rather sore this morning, 6 stitches but more so the swelling and bruising in the bottom of my mouth. Throbby and hurts too talk and chew - soups ahoy for a few days.

I wish there was a bit of glory too it though, not a 1ft floater haha.

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 9:51am

Surfing injury? That’s sucks, heal up quick

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 9:59am
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 10:07am

Fuck man was that your fins?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 10:34am

Chin plant on me fin, yes. One of those ones as soon as it hits you know that wasn't good.

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 12:01pm

So fast haha, ah that's good it wasn't too much of an issue. Lucky the outlook is meh. Heal up.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 10:20am

That looks fucking HORRENDOUS mate!

Only positive I can think of is that you did it here and not the middle of nowhere in the tropics. Hope ya get hooked up with a good placcy surgeon Boner.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 10:38am

6 stitches and wear the scar like a badge of honor haha. If it had too hit, this was the best spot I guess..

I am the bone

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 20 Sep 2019 at 12:06pm

Heavy mate! Surprised you didn't chip a bone.