Fun weekend of surf, larger swells next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 14th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning, selected locations to the east later tomorrow, Sunday, Monday


Clean conditions on the Surf Coast and a slow increase in new mid-period W/SW swell from 2ft during the morning to 2ft to occasionally 3ft into the afternoon yesterday.

This morning a better pulse of W/SW groundswell has filled in providing 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula with N/NW breezes. This swell should ease through the day as winds shift W/NW.

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This weekend and next week (Jun 15 - 21)

Two down, one to go.

We're currently seeing the second of three swells talked about through the week breaking across the region, with tomorrow's third due to come in from a more favourable south-west direction and peak through the afternoon.

The low linked to this swell is generating a fetch of W/SW gales in our south-western swell window, south-west of us and will continue east towards Tasmania while maintaining strength until moving out of our swell window this evening.

The swell is due to arrive into the afternoon, with the Surf Coast coming in around 3ft through the morning (4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula), kicking to 3-5ft on the swell magnets across the Surf Coast late afternoon, with 6ft+ sets to the east.

Winds will be favourable all day for the Surf Coast and out of the NW, while later in the day a more variable N/NW breeze may be seen to the east of Melbourne.

Sunday looks great across most locations (besides the Mornington Peninsula beaches) with a persistent N/NW offshore and easing 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 5ft+ to the east.

Monday will be clean again as N/NW offshore winds persist and the swell continues to ease from a smaller 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and the 4ft range to the east.

Now, moving into Tuesday and our large long-period groundswell event is still on track, but there'll be two distinct and seperate pulses.

This will be a result of a two stage polar frontal progression, with the initial stages of it being strongest but furthest away. A polar fetch of storm-force W'ly winds have already started to be produced south of the Heard Island region and will continue east today, weakening early tomorrow morning.

An inconsistent but strong long-period SW groundswell will be seen from this source, arriving Monday evening and filling in Tuesday, peaking through the day to an infrequent 4-5ft (sets) on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east on the sets. Winds will be favourable only early with a W/NW offshore, giving into a SW change mid-late morning as a surface trough moves in from the west.

We may see a broad low develop in this trough, so winds for Wednesday are a little unsure but at this stage they look variable as the second pulse of W/SW groundswell fills in.

This second pulse will be generated by a slower moving and broader fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds moving in on the back of the storm-force W'ly fetch, rolling slowly east through the weekend and then under the country early next week while weakening.

The groundswell from this system will peak Wednesday to a larger 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula with those morning variable winds.

Easing surf will then be seen Thursday but winds are still up in the air with the low possibly deepening bringing winds from the eastern quadrant, but we'll have to review this Monday. Have a great weekend!


bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond commented Friday, 14 Jun 2019 at 5:05pm

You've been bang on with your forecaster notes for such a tricky stream of swells from various storms. It's been fun with plenty more to come by the looks of things. Cheers mate!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 14 Jun 2019 at 8:18pm

Thanks bluediamond! Much appreciated.

conrico's picture
conrico's picture
conrico commented Friday, 14 Jun 2019 at 8:57pm

always on the money Craig. Love your work

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja commented Sunday, 16 Jun 2019 at 1:52pm

Plus it gets done before midday and it’s straight to the point

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 16 Jun 2019 at 3:47pm

Hi Craig, I can see the computer model forecast size has gone to flat for Sunday and Monday, as at Sunday arvo... glitch in the Matrix?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 16 Jun 2019 at 3:53pm

The unexpected wave model outage we had late last week some data being lost, which meant the model has missed some crucial swell generation. As such, since we got it back up and running yesterday, it’ll take a few days to get back into sync. A bit unfortunate but nothing we can do at all... sorry!