Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 3rd May)

Best Days: No good days

Recap

A small and inconsistent W/SW swell yesterday to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and a better 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula with favourable winds all day for the beaches. This morning the swell was a similar size though with a shift to NW winds, favouring the Surf Coast.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This weekend and next week (May 4 – May 10)

With an initial downgrade in the swell due over the weekend from a tricky and broad multi-centred mid-latitude low, we've now got a slight upgrade on the cards with a better and more prolonged fetch of strong SW winds due to be aimed up and into us today and tomorrow.

The fetch will bring a SW change early-mid morning tomorrow (W'ly early on the Surf Coast but with no size), with building surf to 3ft+ across the Surf Coast into the afternoon and 4-5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions will be very average though with the SW wind.

Come Sunday we'll see the mid-period SW swell easing as winds linger from the S/SW, creating average conditions. Expect dropping surf from 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

As touched on last update there's nothing significant at all on the cards for next week as the mid-latitude low linked to the weekend's swell deepens in the Tasman Sea. This will put a temporary block across our swell windows before a couple of strong cold fronts try and push in across the country early next week.

As they do so they'll weaken and not bring any decent swell with them. Tricky mid-period W'ly swell pulses are on the cards from mid-late week, with a long-period signal in the mix on Thursday.

The long-period signal will be generated by a good mid-latitude front pushing through the Indian Ocean towards WA, poorly through our western swell window.

Size wise the Surf Coast isn't likely to see anything over 1ft Thursday, with the Mornington Peninsula possibly seeing very infrequent 2ft to maybe 3ft sets. Winds look poor for exposed beaches though as a stronger cold front moving in later week brings strengthening N/NW winds ahead of an afternoon W/SW change.

Behind this front some better swell is likely but the models diverge on the outlook into later next week and weekend, so check back here Monday for more info. Have a great weekend!