Fun waves to start the weekend, average until mid-next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st February)
Best Days: Exposed beaches Saturday, beaches Wednesday
OK conditions around Torquay yesterday morning with a drop in swell back to the 3ft range, average across all other locations. This morning the Surf Coast is poor and a mess while the beaches to the east aren't too bad and surfable for keen surfers.
This weekend and next week (Feb 2 - 8)
We're now on a downwards regarding swell and surf size, with this trend continuing to play out through the weekend.
We'll see conditions improve across the states beaches tomorrow morning though with a N/NE tending N'ly breeze and easing 3ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, 2ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets.
Sea breezes don't look to really kick in until mid-afternoon so there should be plenty of time for one or two surfs.
Come Sunday the surf will be clean again with a light N'ly wind but the surf only small to tiny. The Mornington Peninsula may see 1-2ft sets if we're lucky. Into the afternoon a surface trough moving in from the west will bring a fresher S'ly change, followed by a strong high and S/SW tending S/SE winds on Monday.
A new long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell will fill in through the day, generated by a strong slow moving low south-west of WA the last couple of days, but size wise the Surf Coast isn't likely to get above 2-3ft later in the day and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
This swell will ease Tuesday ahead of a late increase in mid-period SW swell, peaking Wednesday. This has been downgraded since Wednesday, with the front generating it not looking as good as it was.
The front will only produce a small fetch of strong W/SW winds that hardly look to reach gale-force now, resulting in a smaller mid-period SW swell.
Size wise the swell is due to peak Wednesday morning to 2-3ft across Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Coming back to the winds and Tuesday looks poor with fresh SE tending stronger E/SE winds, adding a SE windswell to the mix across the Surf Coast.
Both the SE windswell and W/SW swell are due to be a similar size Wednesday morning, easing under a better E/NE-NE wind for the beaches, possibly tending NW later in the day. Either way the beaches should be good most of the day.
Longer term we may see a strong polar front push up and towards us late week, generating a windy increase in swell next weekend, but the models diverge on this. So check back here Monday for a clearer idea. Have a great weekend!