Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 19th November)

Best Days: Keen surfers exposed beaches tomorrow, possibly Surf Coast Saturday morning for keen surfers

Recap

Poor bumpy and small waves across all locations on Saturday with an onshore wind while Sunday started small and slow but improved through the morning with a new swell filling in as winds tended more offshore ahead of mid-afternoon sea breezes.

The Mornington Peninsula offered inconsistent but good 3-4ft+ sets, small and average on the Surf Coast, while this morning the swell has unfortunately eased back to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and an inconsistent 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula but with great conditions. Thought reports are that the swell has since dropped away further.

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This week and weekend (Nov 20 – 25)

It's not the greatest looking forecast period ahead of no decent swell energy and average winds.

Tomorrow morning will be great and clean on the beaches again but size wise I wouldn't expect too much.

We are expecting a very long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell this afternoon, holding tomorrow morning but size wise I wouldn't expect anything over 3ft on the sets on the Mornington Peninsula, tiny on the Surf Coast.

A moderate to fresh N/NE breeze is expected most of the day, giving into a late SW change.

Wednesday morning should then be clean on the Surf Coast with a light W/NW offshore, but with no size or power to the swell.

A small and acute mid-period W'ly swell is due Thursday morning, but this is being generated by a weak and northerly located mid-latitude frontal system south-west and under WA.

With this the Surf Coast will be mostly tiny, if not for the rare 2ft'er at magnets, bumpy and a touch bigger (3-4ft) to the east but with a gusty W/NW tending SW wind.

This change will be linked with a broad and deepening mid-latitude low drifting across us, with it due to stall off the south-east corner of the state and east of Tassie later this week and slowly weaken through the weekend.

With this we'll see strong onshore SW winds aimed through Bass Strait from Thursday through Friday, kicking up a weak increase in SW windswell through Friday but with generally poor conditions.

Size wise we're likely to see the Surf Coast building to 3-4ft or so, 5-6ft to the east, easing Saturday with persistent SW winds (possibly W/NW early on the Surf Coast).

Another mid-latitude low moving in from South Australia looks to bring persistent onshore S/SW winds as the swell continues to ease.

Longer term there's nothing of significance until possibly mid-next week but more on this Wednesday.