Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 4th October)

Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow morning, Surf Coast small wave reefs afternoon, east of Melbourne Saturday and Sunday

Recap

Pumping waves across the Surf Coast yesterday morning to a clean 4-5ft on the reefs, remaining great until a mid-late afternoon change pushed through. The Mornington Peninsula was also clean most of the day but too large for the beaches.

This morning the swell was back to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast with variable winds from the NE, favouring most breaks, while the Mornington Peninsula was also clean with solid sets hanging in there.

We'll see the swell ease slowly further through the day with freshening E/SE sea breezes.

This week and weekend (Oct 5 - 8)

We should see the swell continuing to ease into tomorrow and winds are now looking good for both locations at stages through the day.

A deepening surface trough moving in slowly from the west will stall a little tomorrow, resulting in morning N/NE winds, tending NW late morning and W/NW through the afternoon.

The Surf Coast will ease from 2-3ft, with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday is still looking poor as the trough moves across us, bringing strong onshore S/SW winds and some sizey windswell to the 4ft range on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula during the morning, fading during the day.

The trough will continue moving ease into Friday afternoon and Saturday resulting in a drop in S/SW windswell mixed in with some inconsistent SW groundswell.

The groundswell will be generated by a good elongated but thin fetch of pre-frontal W/NW winds moving through our swell window over the coming days.

Easing surf from 2-3ft is due on the Surf Coast with 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula as winds swing variable out of the NE, favouring the beaches.

Sunday looks a tad smaller and around 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds persist from the N/NE.

As touched on last update, a strong frontal system is expected to fire up towards WA and then push through the Bight on Sunday/Monday, moving across us Monday afternoon.

This should bring a moderate sized W/SW swell for Tuesday with variable winds as the front quickly clears to the east and a high moves in. We'll have a closer look at this Friday though.