Looking towards Sunday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th April)
Best Days: Surf Coast Friday morning, both coasts Sunday, Surf Coast Monday morning
OK waves around Torquay most of yesterday with an early light W/NW breeze, tending W/SW but then back to the W into the afternoon. The swell was smaller and mostly around the 2ft range. East of Melbourne conditions were poor and onshore.
Today a strong and cold onshore change has moved through, creating poor conditions while also generating a building windswell. There's also some new groundswell in the mix, but quality is lacking at all spots.
This week and weekend (Apr 27 - 30)
The possible early W'ly breeze for the Torquay region tomorrow morning is now off the cards, with the strong front pushing into us today due to develop into a low off the southern NSW coast, resulting in persistent onshore S/SW tending SW breezes across both coasts.
A mix of groundswell and windswell should ease from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and the 6ft range on the Mornington Peninusla, smaller Friday morning.
A small reinforcing W/SW swell for Friday should provide 2-3ft sets at swell magnets across the Surf Coast early, easing through the day with 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
An approaching will generate offshore W/NW winds during the morning, only tending W'ly into the afternoon.
Saturday morning will start small, and an early W/NW breeze is expected to give into a fresh SW change mid-morning.
This change will be associated with a strong mid-latitude front moving in from the west-southwest late week, generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our swell window.
We should see a small to moderate sized W/SW swell building from this front on Saturday, mixed in with a larger long-period SW groundswell.
The groundswell has and is continuing to be generated by a vigorous polar low moving through the southern Indian Ocean. We're seeing a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds projected through our far south-western swell window, with the low due to weaken south-west of Tassie tomorrow.
Both swells will build Saturday afternoon, reaching 3-4ft+ across the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, but with those onshore SW winds.
Sunday however looks excellent with another strong polar frontal progression approaching from the south-west due to swing winds light offshore from the NW, persisting all day. There's a good chance the Mornington Peninsula will see N'ly breezes through the morning, and the swell should be easing from from a similar size to later Saturday.
Monday will see fresher NW winds developing ahead of an afternoon SW change with easing levels of SW swell.
Longer term, the polar frontal progression approaching us Sunday will generate a new W/SW swell for Tuesday along with a S/SW swell Wednesday and Thursday. Winds for these swells are looking onshore for the most part, but we'll look at this in more detail Friday.