Plenty of moderate swell potential across Victoria
Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 7th March)
Best Days: Sat: small clean waves in Torquay, bigger east of Melb but watch the winds. Tues/Wed/Thurs: small/mod sized SW swell for Torquay coast though winds may veer E'ly. Easter break: plenty of surf but winds are tricky, currently looking at being onshore Fri/Sat then favourable Sun/Mon.
Recap: Slowly building SW swell through Thurs arvo and into today with inconsistent but fun 2-3ft sets west of Melbourne and 4-5ft sets east of Melbourne.
This weekend (Apr 8 - 9)
Note: these Forecaster Notes will be brief this week as Craig is on annual leave
An approaching cold front and low in the southern Bight have split. The front is moving north-east towards the SA coast and the low is tracking SE and slowly dissipating. This doesn't change the surf outlook much though as the system has largely generated much of the swell it was going to anyway.
Saturday will see freshening N’ly winds and a similar sized, similarly inconsistent swell as per today. If anything a very slight easing trend is possible during the day. There should be fun small waves west of Melbourne and bigger, but slightly more wind affected surf east of Melbourne.
On Sunday we’ll see strengthening NW winds at dawn swing W/SW mid morning ahead of a strong to gale force SW change through the afternoon. Early morning is expected to be similar in size and consistency as per Sunday but a combination of new groundswell and trailing windswell will build size after lunch. Though it probably won’t be big enough for protected locations west or Torquay or inside Western Port.
Next week (Apr 10 onwards)
Monday isn’t looking great. With Sunday’s change moving slowly eastwards we’ll be in a post-frontal S/SW flow and the likely strength of this airstream reduces the prospects for a brief window of early W’ly winds in Torquay (it is a chance though much less than we’d ordinary expect).
Monday’s surf will consist of around 3-4ft groundswell along the Surf Coast but Sunday’s strong SW winds could generate another foot or so of additional short range windswell. This should provide some reasonable size waves in Western Port but quality won’t be high with the S/SW breeze. Protected spots west of Torquay should be worthwhile though. This swell combo will then ease into Tuesday.
The rest of next week looks busy with a steady progression of Southern Ocean storms generating back to back moderate SW groundswells for the region. The next is due to build through Tuesday, peaking Wednesday, and it’ll be overtaken by a super long range swell (20+ seconds) from an intense system west of Heard Island at the moment (swell period charts look impressive, but the actual surf we’ll see at the coast will be sourced from mid-range systems located closer to the mainland).
Short version is rebuilding surf to 3-4ft in Torquay throughout Tuesday (may be smaller at first) and holding at this size - or possibly a smidge more - on Wednesday. As mentioned for much of this week we’re looking at SE tending E’ly winds mid-next week so conditions won’t be great. East of Melbourne it’ll be considerably bigger (6ft+).
Wave heights will then ease slowly through Thursday and Friday with variable winds tending onshore as a moderate front clips the region.
I’m still expecting a steady progression of moderate new swells through the Easter break plus an onshore change at some point.
The models have brought this change forward to Friday and surf size should increase to 3ft during the day and then 3-4ft Saturday and Sunday before easing slightly into Monday. This timing change has also pushed the best window of conditions to Sunday and Monday. Craig will have more on this in Monday’s update.