Poor weekend, better mid-late next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 10th February)
Best Days: Both coasts Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings
Great conditions yesterday morning with a fresh but easing N'ly wind although there was no swell to speak of.
This morning an onshore wind is blowing along with a tiny weak windswell.
This weekend (Feb 11 - 12)
Moving into tomorrow, the surf is due to remain tiny and early variable winds are expected to freshen from the south-west through the day.
There'll be no waves on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula might offer 1-2ft sets early.
Our new W/SW groundswell for Sunday is looking good, with a persistent and broad mid-latitude front moving in from under WA, towards us last night and through today.
This should see surf building to 2-3ft through the late morning at exposed breaks on the Surf Coast with larger 4-6ft sets developing on the Mornington Peninsula into the afternoon.
Conditions will remain average through with a strengthening W/SW breeze as a stronger polar front pushes up and into us. The chance of an early W'ly breeze is unlikely and the swell will be small early anyway around Torquay.
Next week onwards (Feb 13 onwards)
The stronger secondary polar front projecting up towards us through the weekend should produce a moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell for Monday, coming in at 4-5ft across the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, with random bigger sets at times.
Conditions will remain poor though with a gusty W/SW-SW breeze. The change of an early W'ly wind around Torquay is very slim and it's not worth driving from Melbourne for.
The swell will ease off through Tuesday as S/SW tending S/SE winds continuing to create poor conditions.
Come Wednesday better offshore winds are due across both coasts, swinging from the N/NE early, NW into the afternoon and holding as a strong low approaches from the south-west. Size wise the Surf Coast will be small and easing from 2ft to maybe 3ft at magnets, with 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Now as talked about last update some stronger swell is due later in the week and into the weekend, and this will be due to a strong low and front combo.
The low is forecast to form south-west of as, as the remnants of a tropical low drifting south past WA combines with a cold front, resulting in the formation of a severe-gale to storm-force W/SW fetch directly through our south-west swell window on Wednesday.
A moderate sized SW groundswell should result, filling in Thursday and reaching 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are this stage are looking variable during the morning, with N'ly offshores Friday as the swell eases.
A secondary slow moving polar frontal progression should generate some new swell for next weekend but with less favourable winds. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!