Exposed breaks all week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 25th April)
Best Days: East of Melbourne Tuesday, Wednesday, early Thursday, Friday morning, Surf Coast for keen surfers tomorrow and later Wednesday/early Thursday
Recap
An average start to the weekend with onshore waves everywhere including the Torquay region, while some new swell filled in through the day.
Yesterday was much better with a light variable wind, tending offshore at times and good 3ft+ sets on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft sets to the east.
Conditions remained clean most of the day with only light sea breezes, while today the swell is smaller and back to 2ft on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
This week (Apr 26 – 29)
You'll have to focus your attention over the coming week to the swell magnets east of Melbourne and other exposed beaches across the state. There's nothing major due size wise and N'ly winds will create favourable conditions.
The storm linked to our new pulse of inconsistent SW groundswell due tomorrow wasn't quite as strong as the models forecast on Friday and we're probably only due to see inconsistent 2ft sets continuing across the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula through tomorrow, fading into Wednesday.
Conditions tomorrow will be clean across most spots with local offshore winds persisting all day (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE east of Melbourne).
Wednesday morning will be smaller across both coast, struggling to reach 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula with stronger N'ly winds. An acute W'ly swell off an intense mid-latitude low that formed south-west of WA is due into the afternoon.
The initial stages of the low weren't favourable but currently a better fetch of W'ly gales aimed towards the Bight and dipping south-east should produce a fun kick later in the day.
The Surf Coast should kick to 2ft+ through the afternoon with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula before easing through Thursday.
Clean conditions are due again Thursday morning with early N'ly breezes ahead of a shallow SW change. Friday is due to be tiny on the Surf Coast and best east of Melbourne with fading 2-3ft sets under N'ly offshores.
This weekend onwards (Apr 30 onwards)
Saturday is expected to remain tiny with less favourable and strengthening NW winds, while from Sunday and more so next week we'll start to see pro-longed period of swell get under way.
This will be linked to strengthening and stalling node of the Long Wave Trough developing across the Bight through the weekend and persisting most of next week.
This placement in the Bight isn't ideal with the fronts falling under its influence being projected more towards South Australia and through our western swell window. In saying this we're due to see at least a week if not two of swell energy but check back here Friday for more on the specifics surrounding this.
Comments
Hey Craig,
The swell tonight is decreasing but I see there's a jump in period to 15s .. And last week the same thing happened (maybe a bigger jump in period) and the swell increased a bit. Do you still think the surf will be smaller than today ? Not sure if location comes into play, but I'm in SW vic looking at SW facing beaches.
Thanks heaps, hope you had a good weekend !
In the forecast above I mention a small new inconsistent pulse for tomorrow.
Still some big sets this morning, way to pushy.
Swell looking super tasty this afternoon..
Craig the wams have next Tuesday with a red blob hitting the whole Victoria and south Australia how big is that you mentined the long wave trough be responsible for the swells that one looks huge and offshore winds for Victoria
Yep all due to the stalling LWT aiming front after front up into SA and then across to Vicco. A great setup!
Models still moving a touch so size will be as well.
Ok the lwt returns
The return of the long wave truff guy. Can't wait to get over and surf some juice.
mmmmmm not sure if that photo is Micky Free from " the revolution " or Garry Lyon dressed as Cher .
anyone seen this
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Has Garry Lyon passed aswell?.......he's awfully quiet.
Nah , he was just making passes at other blokes missus's .
That's the problem with a lot of celebrity's, they start believing their own inflated ego .
Where's Gary G , he knows how to keep s lid on it .
I got that one southey.:-)
Another swellnet alert a smart man would set up a hot dog stand.
For all you blokes coming down to surf some juice. I'll put his as politely as possible. If your in a group larger than one, Fuck off!!
And if ten viccos in two cars rock up on the WC of SA to a wave on private property with no invitation, well you know exactly what they can do eh Hako...get far away and shut the gate on the way out!
If any one of those 10 cunts reads this, you know you well and truly over stepped the mark.
P.S. If you guys are ever caught cutting up the pristine sand dunes in ya troopies again, you won't be driving or walking out...fucking disrespectful cunts.
That's fucked.
Any idea where abouts in Vic they were from?
What type of boards did they have?
Yeah super disrespectful. Ruining it for everyone!
Yep, ruin the good rep of other travelling surfers...don't know what boards they were on so can't give clues to their own territory.
Only clue is two troopies with Vic plates and ten guys paddle out on mass and a dog that wouldn't shut the fuck up.
No traveler will be welcome to this magic place and wave for a long time, if ever again.
Not all travellers are cockjockeys, some of us travel by ourself or with a friend and leave no trace behind but happy memories .... Next time chase them down and take some of their sticks for payment !!
We need Vic Local to do a early forecast for this.
He was pretty on to the Easter swells
I see the other Oz forecasting site is hyper frothing on Tuesday already. It looks solid, but probably too west for 'ginormous' (their words) surf coast?
Wow, way off, calling ginormous, it's so so so west... Ha.
Fuck me they love a headline over there. Kings of hype. Someone send vic local over to have a whinge.
How is to west on the wams the purple blob is going straight for Victoria and the swell direction is WSW is won't be ginormous but still will be 8ft won't it ? Winds looking good aswell.
And what happened is WC SA with Victorian surfers haven't heard about this I am interested what did they do ?
Total disrespect for local land owners, local surfers and the environment is all I'm gonna say...let those 10 surfers fill in the details if they are on SN...I hope they enjoyed their stay ;-)
Tripper .
I have no idea who would travel with 5 guys in one troopy .
It's a bit gay let alone stupid . No doubt they were car pooling to save on fuel expenses so most likely young blokes .
And I'm tipping they learnt about that area from Instagram or at very least got an appetite to search through it from Instagram .
Might be time you guys reign in a few guys getting trigger happy up that way . So you'll have less chance of the other trigger happy guys dealing with these types of muppets .
And I'm tipping they aren't from the SE . As that region is usually pretty staunch . Although saying that , every where's changing .
Caml don't get too excited .
Crikeyzzz ! I can't stop looking at next week forecast swell !
'Yep, ruin the good rep of other travelling surfers...don't know what boards they were on so can't give clues to their own territory.
Only clue is two troopies with Vic plates and ten guys paddle out on mass and a dog that wouldn't shut the fuck up.'
Interesting. Wordy has it that they were from the SE corner/Bass Straight region. One had a highchair and that endlessly yapping pet mutt.
Not all lost though, surfed on my own in deluxe waves they and their inside tip off mole don't know about. And its not 'that' wave. Or the 'other' 'one'(s)