Craig

Best Sunday, good Monday with an inconsistent but strong building swell

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 6th November)

Best Days: Keen surfers Torquay early Saturday, both coasts Sunday and Monday, both coasts Thursday

Recap

No real SE windswell left across the coast yesterday morning as the fetch through Bass Strait evaporated leaving fading 1-1.5ft sets under N/NE winds, while the Mornington Peninsula didn't see much either with a background SW groundswell to 1-2ft or so.

Today a new mix of SW groundswells are filling in with good 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast 4-5ft sets across the Mornington Peninsula this morning, but a fresh SW change is yet to be seen with variable winds and fun conditions across selected breaks. We should see the swell kick further to 3-4ft and 6ft+ respectively across both coasts but with deteriorating conditions as that change pushes through.

This weekend (Nov 7 - 8)

With today's onshore change delayed, the period and chance of possible W/NW winds tomorrow around Torquay has been diminshed.

There's still a good chance for a period of W/NW winds around Torquay, worth an early surf with easing 3ft sets, but check local obs before hitting the highway. A shift to the SW is due 8am or so, creating poor conditions for the rest of the day. The Mornington Peninsula will easy from a messy 6ft.

Sunday should be fun and looks to be cleaner with light variable (likely local offshore) winds due with easing 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Afternoon SE sea breezes will create bumpy conditions after lunch.

Next week onwards (Nov 9 onwards)

Monday afternoon's strong kick in long-period and inconsistent SW groundswell is still on track, with a 'bombing low' south-west of WA generating a storm-force W'ly fetch in our far swell window. Satellite observations confirm this fetch with 50-60kt barbs recorded, but not quite to the hurricane-force strength.

The low will track east-southeast while slowly weakening today, leaving a strong, inconsistent SW groundswell to spread up towards us for Monday. The long-period forerunners around 21-22s are due to hit Cape Sorell Sunday evening, with the bulk of the swell filling in around the 16-17s range Monday afternoon across our coasts.

Early Monday will likely be very slow with inconsistent 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of a strong afternoon kick to 3-5ft and 6-8ft respectively across both coasts. Conditions should be great across both coasts Monday morning with local offshore breezes, while only a weak and shallow SW change is due through the mid-afternoon, so conditions should be workable as the swell starts to muscle in proper.

We've got plenty of moderate sized W/SW groundswell to follow into Tuesday and Wednesday across the coast due to a broad and elongated fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds trailing the 'bombing low'. The Surf Coast should hold around 3-4ft Tuesday, kicking a touch bigger through the afternoon and then easing slowly from 3-4ft Wednesday morning. The Mornington Peninsula should ebb and pulse between 6-8ft, dropping form this size Wednesday morning.

Unfortunately the poor winds forecast Wednesday are still on the cards with a stronger S/SE breeze due into Tuesday in the wake of Monday's weak change, followed by strong E'ly winds into Wednesday, kicking up some new SE windswell across the Surf Coast.

Thursday will be the day to surf with easing peaky 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula under fresh N'ly winds.

Longer term a mix of good sized W/SW groundswells are due next weekend but with what looks to be SE winds, more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 6 Nov 2015 at 11:44am

Craig, the swellnet forecast models arent picking up monday just yet!? Either is buoyweather. I mean a 6-8ft swell at 23secs is gonna be pretty god damn interesting no?

Another quicky. Sometimes you refer to European and American models. Would buoyweather fall into either of these in a very basic form? Buoyweather is downplaying monday currently (4ft at 16secs)

I am the bone

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 6 Nov 2015 at 11:47am

FYI - Buoyweather uses GFS (or 'American') model data, which is the same source that we use. So there may be differences in the particulars but the overal trend would be similar. 

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 6 Nov 2015 at 11:44am

The 21-22s forerunners contain no real size, as I pointed out above, the bulk of the swell is around 16-17s and forecasts have 2.3m @ 16.3s for 6pm Monday.

Forecast isn't for 6-8ft at 23s. Also very inconsistent so I believe more 3-4ft, with 5ft bombs Surf Coast and 6ft with 8ft bombs Mornington Peninsula.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 6 Nov 2015 at 11:45am

Also, I wouldn't think anything too special about this swell, it's just a very inconsistent long-period number and hardly epic.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 6 Nov 2015 at 11:47am

Ahhhh gotcha. In that case, is there ever any potential for a 20+ sec of 8ft swell to hit morn pen? Never really seems to get above 18 (and that being rather rare)

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 6 Nov 2015 at 11:49am

Yes, for sure, but as you said rare. Would need the storm to be close to Victoria and producing winds in the 50-60kt range.

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Friday, 6 Nov 2015 at 2:27pm

It seems like a lot of swells in Victoria are called inconsistent what needs to happen for an consistent swell to reach Victoria ? By the way I am not taking the piss this is a proper question

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 6 Nov 2015 at 2:30pm

Last month or so yes, because the storm track hasn't been focussed towards us, hence relying on long-range and inconsistent groundswell energy. If the fronts are right off our doorstep and pushing through under the Bight towards us, or up from the south-west of Tassie, the swell will be a lot more consistent.

coachPotato's picture
coachPotato's picture
coachPotato commented Saturday, 7 Nov 2015 at 8:13am

You are over thinking this. All you need is for there to be more waves per hour and it'll be heaps consistent

Rossrips's picture
Rossrips's picture
Rossrips commented Saturday, 7 Nov 2015 at 3:54pm

You were on the money Craig about the winds this Saturday morning. Appreciate you saving me the drive down for the early . Definitely looking sketchy for Sunday early as well you would have to say - do you think it may be a case of swinging offshore mid morning?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 7 Nov 2015 at 7:32pm

No worries Ross, no tomorrow is still looking fun and clean! Probably cleanest mid-morning through midday though.

superfish's picture
superfish's picture
superfish commented Saturday, 7 Nov 2015 at 8:25pm

Sweet how strong is the offshore change meant to be and when-ish? .. just wondering whether it's worth hauling out of bed for the dawn session if it'll still be lumpy . Cheers great job hope you get some waves yew

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 7 Nov 2015 at 8:28pm

Read the forecast, it's all there

superfish's picture
superfish's picture
superfish commented Saturday, 7 Nov 2015 at 8:56pm

Kinda not really .. I wasn't sure if that thing about winds going W/NW was about sat or sunday and otherwise it says light variable but Craig said just above that it should be clean so just checking .. either way I'm spoilt with these forecasts anyways and worst case scenario is me walking back across the road to bed .. wouldn't mind sleeping in knowing it was gonna be lumpy is all

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon commented Saturday, 7 Nov 2015 at 11:47pm

Plenty of sleeping in the coffin s f.
Get out and enjoy the lumpy journey .!

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Sunday, 8 Nov 2015 at 1:45am

.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Sunday, 8 Nov 2015 at 1:46am

Personel trainer !

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 9 Nov 2015 at 8:03am

Cape Sorell showing those strong 22s periods yesterday evening, and also a very strong kick in size this morning, should be all systems go from midday onwards..

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 9 Nov 2015 at 9:33am

Yew! Hopefully the wind stays offshore long enough

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 9 Nov 2015 at 10:49am

Looking at the forecast, I think it will go variable and stay good until about 3pm.