thermalben

Plenty of swell; onshore Tues but improving Wed

Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 21st September)

Best Days: Tues: protected locations only as the swell builds. Wed: should be an early window of offshores in Torquay. Thurs: fun morning waves on the Surf Coast. Fri: small bump in new swell with good winds for most open beaches. Sat/Sun: light winds and plenty of waves for both coasts, tho' inconsistent.

Recap: Plenty of fun waves over the weekend with 3ft sets along the Surf Coast and 5-6ft waves east of Melbourne, and offshore winds both days keeping conditions clean just about everywhere. Surf size eased a little this morning and early NW winds preceded a gusty SW change that reached the Aireys Inlet AWS around 10:30am. Winds have recently veered back to the W so the Surf Coast is still quite manageable. The Cape Sorell buoy has picked up the leading edge of a new long period swell (Tp 18 seconds) in the last few hours but there’s been no major size increase at the coast yet.

This week (Sep 22 - 25)

We’ve got a couple of swell sources for the short term.

The new long range groundswell recently detected at Cape Sorell should provide a small increase from tonight into Tuesday. It was generated by a severe low pressure system located near Heard Island during the middle to latter part of last week, and generated very large waves for West Oz yesterday. However, the extra couple of thousand kilometres of travel distance means we’re seeing a much smaller size in Victoria due to the effects of swell decay.

In addition to this swell, the front responsible for today’s change (in actual fact, there are two fronts - one that arrived this morning and another due to cross the coast tonight) will generate some short range SW swell for Tuesday, but it’ll be lower in quality.

A third swell source for the next few days will push through later Tuesday, originating from a second severe low pressure system near the Heard Island region on Friday. It tracked below the continent over the weekend and we should see a corresponding kick at the Cape Sorell buoy around lunchtime (Tp of 16-17 seconds), with the swell filling into Central Victorian beaches late in the day, before peaking overnight and then easing through Wednesday.

Unfortunately, local winds are not looking very favourable on Tuesday, thanks to a developing low pressure system in the Tasman Sea and a broad high in the Bight, which will direct strong S/SW winds across most locations. There is an outside chance for a period of early W'ly winds across the Surf Coast for an hour or two at dawn, but confidence is lower than usual for this local anomoly as the synoptic southerly looks like it’ll be quite strong, and well established overnight Monday. So, don't get your hopes up for anything amazing.

Wednesday will see lighter synoptic winds as the pressure gradient relaxes, and therefore there’s a much better chance of an early light offshore breeze along the Surf Coast. But in general expect a dominant southerly flow. 

So, how much size will we see? I haven’t had much of a chance to review the hindcast data from the weekend, but for now I can’t see much reason to deviate from Craig’s estimates on Friday for the Surf Coast to building from 3-4ft to 4-5ft during Tuesday, easing from 3-5ft Wednesday. Note: our surf model is calling a peak on 5-6ft in Torquay late Tuesday (see image below) however I think this is probably a slight overcall, as the wave model is combining two swell trains into one (note the jump in size on the long period swell from 2.1m to 3.7m between 6am and 12pm Tuesday, this is the giveaway and therefore the raw data should be treated with caution).

East of Melbourne it’ll be very large on the open beaches but Tuesday should have good options at protected locations inside Western Port into the afternoon as the swell builds. Even Wednesday morning may have smaller leftovers with much lighter winds however the trend will be downwards throughout the day.

The trend for the rest of the week is then slowly down through Thursday with light winds (small fun waves in Torquay), ahead of a bump in energy on Friday, originating from a polar low developing east of Heard Island today that’s expected to remain very low in latitude for the coming days. 

Strong core winds should result in a decent leading edge swell period (around 15-16 seconds) and a slow upwards trend is likely during the day with inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets on offer in Torquay by the late afternoon. Winds are expected to tend light NE as a high pressure system migrates just south of the region, so this will favour the open beaches both east and west of Melbourne (east should see a late peak in the 4-5ft+ range). 

This weekend (Sep 26 - 27)

Looks like we’ve got a great weekend of waves ahead for all regions. 

A dominant high pressure system is expected to maintain light winds across all coasts, and a series of strong polar lows developing all week in our far and mid range swell windows should generate a couple of pulses of quality swell that’ll deliver plenty of great waves across the coast.

Early indications are for inconsistent both days somewhere in the 2-3ft+ range west of Melbourne, and 4-5ft+ east of Melbourne. I’ll have more on this in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (Sep 28 onwards)

Nothing major on the radar for next week at this stage.

We’ve got a couple of fronts expected to push through our swell window on the weekend that should renew more energy for late Monday or Tuesday (say, 2-3ft+ Surf Coast), and the only other feature I’ll be keeping a close eye on is a possible amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough in the south-eastern Indian Ocean (i.e. east of Heard Island) early next week that may spawn a series of intense fronts and lows, with a strong resulting groundswell arriving in Victoria later next week or (more likely) into the following weekend. More on this over the coming days. 

Comments

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Monday, 21 Sep 2015 at 4:56pm

Hi Ben,
What are your predictions for the winds for the surf coast over the weekend. I have looked at the BOM winds for Victoria and it seems both Saturday and Sunday will be accompanied by southerly winds
What are your thoughts?

Cheers

Average's picture
Average's picture
Average commented Monday, 21 Sep 2015 at 5:45pm

Are you a subscriber? If so, you'll be able to see 14 day automated forecast for winds on the Surf Forecast tab.

At the time of writing, the wind forecast for Torquay is East on Saturday, NE-NW on Sunday. Less than 10 knots both days. Size forecast is exactly as Craig (edit: Ben) reports.

Also in case you're interested, 14-day forecast has it offshore on the following weekend (3rd, 4th October).

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 21 Sep 2015 at 5:48pm

"A dominant high pressure system is expected to maintain light winds across all coasts". This means light and variable both days - but variable literally means "from any direction". This isn't a cop out, it's the fact that when the synoptic wind is weak, the wind direction is usually steered by local influences and usually changes several times throughout the day. The most likely/general trend would be early offshore, afternoon onshore (given that we're heading into that time of the year where sea breezes are a little more prevalent), but it's early days and I'll have more info on Wednesday.

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Monday, 21 Sep 2015 at 7:36pm

Thanks Ben much appreciated information
Cheers
And Average sadly I am not a subscriber but the 14 day forecast would be very handy. Just out of interest how is the whole of next week looking in general for the surf coast ( Jan juc way) seems like Monday and Tuesday are looking offshore hopfully. I am on school holidays so got this week and next week off so trying to get down as much as possible.

One last thing average,
Is the 14 day forecast picking up any size or showing any signs of the long way trough that Ben was talking about that might bring some bigger waves mid next week or next weekend
cheers

zdawg1's picture
zdawg1's picture
zdawg1 commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2015 at 6:06pm

Why don't you subscribe to the extended forecast you bloody dickhead

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Monday, 21 Sep 2015 at 8:00pm

Is sorrento a plant? Seems to be asking very simple basic questions in several regional forecasts.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 21 Sep 2015 at 8:24pm

Giving him the benefit of the doubt for the short term. But on a short leash.

Tabby10's picture
Tabby10's picture
Tabby10 commented Monday, 21 Sep 2015 at 9:48pm

Hi Ben,
I was just wondering where in aus would be working best on the 1st to the 4th Oct ( next weekend), finally getting to go on a mini surf trip with the boys ( 2 kids under 2 haven't helped my surf trips) and we are prepared to go anywhere the waves will be pumping.
I know it's still a fair way out but any of your knowledge would be helpful in choosing a destination, I see you think vicco might have waves but where from there so it would be nice to get away from here.
Cheers

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Monday, 21 Sep 2015 at 9:58pm

Wouldn't call asking questions on Victoria and some on the Queensland forecast notes several. Quote from google several means " more than two but not many " and since that I have only commented on 2 means you are wrong, please don't overexaggerate to get your point across. I am just interested in surf forecasting and surf spots and winds, so I don't see the problem with asking questions big Donny boy.

And no I am not a plant I no your trying to make a joke ( not really funny to be honest ), but each to there own I guess I am just interested.
Have a good night :)

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2015 at 10:13am

Subscribe if you're interested then.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2015 at 10:31am

Can you change your email address on your account? You've submitted the wrong one and the owner of that email is getting forum alerts.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2015 at 2:04pm

Me?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2015 at 2:09pm

Ha, no.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2015 at 10:36am

How can that error happen ?shonk

# Autophagy for Health - Just do it #

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2015 at 10:49am

Not necessarily: I saw the original email address and it'd be easy to get a letter or numeral wrong (and when you're a part of a large orrganisation, one small error can sometimes mean the email address belongs to someone else.) 

FWIW, it's incredible how many people screw up their email addresses when they register with the website. We need to implement a better system to check against this.

zdawg1's picture
zdawg1's picture
zdawg1 commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2015 at 6:08pm

Hey Sorrento, you comment on the forecast notes every week asking the same dumb questions which are clearly answered by a read of the fantastically comprehensive forecasts that Ben and Craig make available to the public FOR FREE.

Howabout you go back to sucking your mumma's titties instead of being a serial internet pest.

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Tuesday, 22 Sep 2015 at 10:58pm

Haha very funny zdawg your pretty intimidating mate your a genuine hero you absolute potato. Please explain how my questions are dumb would love to get your opinion, I am just interested so I asks questions about things that I don't no the answer to which is the reason for asking questions. Plus because Ben and Craig have great knowledge in this field of work I love asking them questions which further benefits my knowledge about winds and swells but also terms like variable winds. As you said I also find Ben and Craig's forecast notes excellent and comprehensive but I don't see why I can't ask questions however dumb you may think they are. Some people haven't been studying forecasting for 50 years like I am guessing you have as you seem like a cranky old fuck who has nothing to do but try and bring others down.

And no I won't go "suck my mums titties" ( I no you are clearly joking, such a bad joke) but life goes on doesn't it. I do have some advice for you though, I reckon you should chill out, simmer down and just enjoy life, I mean I no you probs live in Frankston and hit the bong every night but honestly mate just chill out and go for a surf , I find it calms you down.
Have a great night:)

uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2015 at 8:09am

@Sorrento
If you don't know the answer to your questions after reading the forecast notes, for the sanity of the internet, please look at other weather/swell websites to find your answers
You don't have to be able to read the charts for 50 years as all the information is there laid out right in front of you to view
It would seriously take the same amount of time you put into thinking about writing a question, to check half a dozen different websites to pick the wind direction or swell size on any given day
Try it out, you might just learn something in the process that helps you score better waves by understanding what is going on, rather than modern day google search in getting your life experiences
Have fun bud

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Wednesday, 23 Sep 2015 at 12:58pm

Gary can't help but notice that Sorrento and fellow 'simple question asker' Tom P resort to Tuber-based insults when pushed about their questions.

Has anyone seen both of them in the same gym at the same time, or could they be two sides of the same set of abs, trying to waste the time of the good folk here at Swellnet...

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker