thermalben

Tricky forecast but small windows likely in Torquay

Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 14th November)

Best Days: Monday thru' next weekend: extended period of mainly small to moderate, pulsey groundswells but with brief periods of favourable winds for the Surf Coast (Tues AM the pick at this stage). Wednesday should also have good options east of Melbourne as light N’ly winds settle under high pressure. 

This weekend (Nov 13-14)

*today's forecast notes are very short as Craig is away, and I'm somewhat time poor*

It's not a great weekend for Victorian surfers. A broad low pressure trough over the inland region will maintain mainly moderate onshore winds across the region on Saturday. A small kick in swell evident at the Cape Sorell buoy today (but only just starting to show along the coast) should be in the water with inconsistent 2-3ft sets west of Melbourne but it’s not worth getting too excited about.

Another inland surface low will cross the region overnight Saturday and a front will rear up from the west, so we may see a brief window of W’ly winds west of Torquay early Sunday morning. However the swell will be slowly easing by this time and W/SW winds will be threatening to envelop the coast. If you’re in the Torquay region it’ll be worth a quick look but I’m not confident that it’s worth a drive from Melbourne. 

East of Melbourne looks pretty average all weekend with wave heights only expected to favour the open beaches (which will remain onshore regardless).

Next week (Nov 15 onwards)

A moderate front will cross the coast Sunday night, followed by a more vigorous system further south later Monday and a third front around Wednesday.

Beyond that, a series of deep Southern Ocean lows look to back up in our medium to far swell window mid-week, so there’s plenty of intermittent swells lining up for next week.

The entire long term forecast period should have just enough size for something worthwhile on the Surf Coast, with Tuesday morning showing the most promise at this stage with early 3ft+ sets likely along with a brief period of W/NW winds (these winds are also possible early Monday but surf size will probably be a little smaller). Winds will tend fresh W/SW both days though so you will have to make the most of the early sessions.

Light offshore winds and easing swells are then expected on Wednesday as a high pressure system occupies the region, and this will be the best day for locations east of Melbourne, with plenty of size on offer for the open beachbreaks.

The second half of next week also looks busy with a few windows of clean waves west of Melbourne, likely to persist through into the weekend. I’ll have more detail on this in Monday’s update.