Craig

Workable week, large into Sunday/Monday

UNLESS YOU LIVE AT THE BEACH, PLEASE DON'T TRAVEL TO SURF

COVID-19 is changing the way we think about surfing. Travelling to the surf now means you're putting an unnecessary strain on the resources of small regional communities. So, please stay home. If you live near the beach and want to surf, please maintain a healthy spacing in the lineup, don't hang in the carpark, and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet. Above all, stay happy, healthy and look out for one another.

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th October)

Best Days: Every morning from Wednesday on the Surf Coast, Mornington Peninsula Thursday morning

Recap

Saturday was excellent across the Surf Coast and good east of Melbourne if you could find a spot handling the swell. Offshore winds persisted all day across both coasts as the strong S/SW swell eased.

Yesterday morning was OK for a period on the Surf Coast with an early W'ly before a change moved through writing off the surf for the rest of the day as a new SW groundswell filled in.

This groundswell has dropped away this morning, coming in smaller than expected with 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under variable winds from the north-eastern quadrant.

This week (Oct 7 - 10)

Tomorrow's not looking too flash as a strong W'ly change moves through, bringing with it a building short-range W/SW swell but only to a weak 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula through the day (smaller at dawn). Under those fresh W/NW tending W/SW winds there won't be too many options.

Some better W/SW groundswell is due in the wake of the frontal system for the rest of the week though generated by continued frontal activity under the country this week. The W/SW swell should come in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula on Wednesday, with a touch more size possible into the afternoon/evening.

Conditions should be good around Torquay with an offshore NW wind ahead of a shift to the SW through the afternoon. Thursday looks good as well and better for the Mornington Peninsula with a period of N/NW winds and easing swell from 3ft and 4-6ft respectively.

One final pulse of W/SW swell should keep 2ft waves hitting Torquay and 3ft sets at 13th Beach Friday with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula as winds persist from the NW to SW.

This weekend onwards (Oct 11 onwards)

As talked about the last few updates, a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough is due to move in from the west later this week, bringing with it a flurry of broad and strong frontal activity.

With this we should see a large W/SW-SW groundswell developing for Sunday/Monday with what at this stage looks to be favourable NW to SW winds Sunday and then onshore S/SE winds Monday. We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday though.