Craig

Small westerly swells all week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 26th May)

Best Days: Tuesday morning at exposed beaches on Surf Coast and western end of Mornington Peninsula, Thursday - Sunday morning on the Mornington Peninsula

Recap

A new pulse of S/SW groundswell on Saturday provided great waves either side of 3ft across the Surf Coast with offshore W/NW winds. The Mornington Peninsula offered more size but average conditions during the morning before winds tended more offshore into the afternoon.

Sunday was the day to hit up the beaches east of Melbourne though with a straighter offshore that persisted into the afternoon and easing swell.

Today the surf is back to a small, clean 2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula with local offshores favouring the beaches across both coasts.

This week (May 26 - 30)

As Ben pointed out on Friday, this week is quite tricky to forecast with a series of acute westerly swells without too much size expected across the state throughout the week. The reason for this is the storm track being focussed up into WA and the Bight, just a bit too far north to be ideally in our swell window.

Unfortunately this will limit the size on the Surf Coast, with more exposed locations like 13th Beach expected to rake in the most swell, while the Mornington Peninsula should fare well for the most part.

A small initial pulse is expected tomorrow to 2ft+ or so at 13th Beach, 1-2ft in Torquay, while the Mornington Peninsula should see 3-4ft sets. This swell should dip away into Wednesday ahead of a secondary smaller increase on Thursday, followed by a tertiary pulse on Friday. The Torquay region on these additional pulses isn't likely to get much above 1ft to occasionally 2ft, while the Mornington Peninsula is expected to be in the 2-3ft+ range.

Winds early tomorrow should be workable across the western end of the Mornington Peninsula with a strengthening N/NW'ly, but a shift to the NW during the day will favour the Surf Coast.

Wednesday will be a day to miss with NW tending variable winds and small to tiny swell. The Mornington Peninsula will offer the only real decent waves on Thursday and Friday with persistent N/NE winds for the most part and small-medium sized waves.

This weekend onwards (May 31st onwards)

The weekend will play out similar to the coming week, with small, inconsistent levels of W/SW groundswell expected through both Saturday and Sunday, peaking on the later. The models seem to be overestimating the size on Sunday though, with it combining two swell trains, one a small medium-period W/SW groundswell and the other a similar size but longer-period groundswell. Size wise we're probably looking at a very inconsistent 1-2ft of swell across expected breaks on the Surf Coast with 3ft sets east of Melbourne.

Winds should remain favourable for the Mornington Peninsula Saturday before a shallow change associated trough moves though Sunday. In saying this the Surf Coast may only see light SE winds, with more variable breezes on the Mornington Peninsula.

Longer term there's still nothing too significant on the cards for next week as the upper level weather patterns remain subdued (read no real strong amplifications of the Long Wave Trough). In saying this we should see a touch more size than the coming week, but check back Wednesday for more on this.

Comments

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf commented Monday, 26 May 2014 at 1:35pm

Craig what was the angle of the swell on Sunday? From the cliff tops at Portsea looked like it was almost south east. A lot of left handers with the odd right.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 26 May 2014 at 1:40pm

I haven't been totally across the swells hitting the Victorian coast over the weekend as I was on holidays and focussed more on South Oz, but Ben mentions the swell coming from the S/SW. So this may have been the reason for the swell to appear to come more from the south.

There wasn't any SE windswell in the water at all, so that's a weird one.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Monday, 26 May 2014 at 2:30pm

Thanks it was probably a lot of south in it.