A deep upper cold pool in the upper atmosphere will provide the catalyst for the formation of a deep and powerful Tasman Low directly off our coast on Saturday.
This change will whip up a small south swell for exposed south facing beaches on Thursday, but it looks like the biggest beneficiary will be the Lower Mid North Coast, which should see an earlier influence from a building ridge of high pressure - fresh southerly winds at dawn winds are expected to go variable by lunchtime ahead of a late afternoon nor’easter.
A deep and powerful Tasman Low is expected to generate a large stormy S/SE swell over the weekend with associated S'ly winds. limiting surfing options to protected spots.
But at the peak of the swell Friday morning, much better E/SE winds are expected across most locations. Size wise we should see 6-8ft sets in the South West, 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Perth, and 4-5ft up at Gero.
Oooh yeah, we’ve got a complex weekend for surfers and weather watchers alike. A developing low off the South Coast on Saturday morning - just east of Batemans Bay, according to the latest model guidance - will initially strengthen W/NW winds about the Sydney and Hunter regions, with more SW winds south of Wollongong and S/SW in the Far South.
Today's swell will ease through tomorrow and conditions are looking great for the South Coast with light morning offshores from the N/NW that will strengthen during the day. The Mid Coast will have waves early but conditions will deteriorate rapidly during the day.
Clean fun waves tomorrow on the Surf Coast, with improving conditions later in the day on the Mornington Peninsula. Plenty of swell for the weekend but with average winds.
Our large and inconsistent S/SW groundswell is still on track for later Tuesday ahead of a peak Wednesday across Eastern Indonesia.
Today's fun increase in S'ly groundswell was generated by a strong frontal system pushing across us on Sunday and this system has since raced off towards New Zealand, with a rapid drop in size expected to have taken place this afternoon, leaving nothing tomorrow.
Steadily easing swells and freshening NW tending W’ly winds are expected on Wednesday, which should be primo for most of the open beaches in Northern NSW
