Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E/NE swells Thurs and Fri with mostly offshore winds
• NE windswell building Sat with fresh N-N/NE winds tending NW in the a’noon
• Size easing rapidly Sun with winds from the NW through W/NW
• Small start to next week- Mon and Tues tiny
• S swell developing mid next week- low confidence in specifics so check back Fri for latest update

Recap

E/NE swell yesterday to 3ft got some back-up from a developing NE windswell as winds freshened from the N through the day, reaching 3-4ft by close of play. Similar size this morning, with some even bigger sets in the mix. Conditions were still a bit bumpy this morning but cleaned up by late morning as winds shifted offshore W'ly, expected to tend more W/SW-SW through the day. 

Really fun beachies cleaning up as winds shifted offshore

This week (July 21-25)

A front and trough are now moving over the east of the continent, pushing a NE flow to the east and bringing offshore then SW-S winds as they clear the coast. High pressure then moves over the inland of NSW and slowly exits into the Tasman late Fri into Sat. We’ll see the current pattern repeat as a pre-frontal N’ly flow ramps over the weekend before a front and low bring a stiff W’ly change. The low looks to be slow moving bringing W’ly winds and not much swell before being whisked away to the SE. They next short range feature looks juicier with models now hinting at a stronger front or even slow moving cut-off low in the Tasman from mid next week, that would suggest stronger S swell as we move into August.

In the short run, we’ll see small leftovers from the E/NE tomorrow, with mostly 2ft sets, an occ. 3 footer, clean under morning W tending SW winds. A weak SW-S fetch adjacent to Tasmania and the South Coast will generate a minor flush of S swell that will see S facing beaches up into the 2 occ. 3ft range but with S’ly winds it’s hard to see anything of quality. Probably better off milking the last dregs of the E/NE swell which should stay clean most of the day.

Friday looks a better bet for small S swell which holds in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches. There’ll be some mid period E swell in the mix as well as E’ly winds off the top of a strong high near New Zealand continue to feed into a trough. Expect mostly 2 with occ 3ft sets from this source.  With high pressure moving over the state winds will drop out with light morning land breezes and a’noon seabreezes. By close of play those NE breezes should be reaching mod paces. But they’ll really ramp o/night and into Sat.

This weekend (July 26-27)

N’lies still ramping up into Sat morning, reaching fresh paces and tending NW through the a’noon. Still looking like we’ll see workable NE windswell in the 2-3ft range, possibly ramping up mid-morning as winds reach a maximum before shunting NW.  As winds shift swells should clean up and the a’noon looks fun in semi-clean side-winders. 

Almost all gone for Sun with NW winds tending mod/fresh W/NW though the day and mostly tiny surf from the NE-E- possibly surfable on a log.

Next week (July 28 onwards)

A low is expected to sulk just E of Tasmania through Mon, moving away to the SE on Tues and with high pressure up in the sub-tropics we’ll see a W tending W/NW or even NW flow to start the week. Tiny surf continues, mostly small E’ly swells that will be lucky to throw up the occ. 2ft set (mostly 1ft or so). So pencil in a couple of tiny days unless something changes drastically in the short term.

From there things get more interesting. 

A front and potential cut-off low are expected to form Wed. At this stage GFS is suggesting a strong front and weak low which skips away, leading to a quick spike in S swell Thurs.

EC has a much more bullish outlook with a robust cut-off low sitting in the Tasman for the second half of next week. Under this scenario we’d see an initial spike in S swell followed by more favourable S/SE swell late in the week or into the weekend.

Lack of model agreement leads to low confidence in outcomes so check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

During this time frame a retreating but broad and long trade fetch will be supplying some background E’ly pulses, none of which are expected to exceed an inconsistent 2-3ft. 

Uncertain outlook but swells from the south is the short take home.

We’ll continue to dial in details when we come back on Fri.

Seeya then.