Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun sized E-/NE swells Tues with winds from the NW to N/NE
• NE windswell in the mix Tues PM
• Fun mix of E/NE and NE swells Wed AM with winds swinging offshore, size easing in the a’noon
• Small E/NE swells Thurs and Fri - slim chance we may see a slight rebuild Fri with mostly offshore winds
• NE windswell building Sat with fresh N-N/NE winds
• Size easing rapidly Sun with winds from the NW through W/NW
• Small start to next week- Mon and Tues tiny
• S swell developing mid next week- nothing sizey at this stage but multiple pulses likely

Recap

Not much action over the weekend with just traces of S swell around biggest on Sat with mostly 2ft surf, 2-3ft on the Hunter under light W-SW winds for the morning. That dribbled away to less than 2ft on Sun with light land and seabreezes. Light winds and clean conditions again this morning but were seeing swell direction veer more eastwards with some fun 2ft surf on offer. 

Small, clean E swells on offer this morning

This week (July 21-25)

We’ve got a high in the Tasman and a low pressure north of the North Island as we start the new week. Unfortunately, compared to Fridays expectations the interplay between these two systems is weaker, with a more constrained fetch of lower windspeeds that drifts away quicker than modelled on Friday. That will result in smaller east quadrant swell this week, relative to Fridays expectations. So, small and fun from the easy this week. We’ll see N’ly winds increase as we head into the weekend in response to an approaching cut-off low in the Bight,  with some workable NE windswell now on the radar for this period. Other than that, nothing significant short or medium term as we start the week. 

In the short run well see E/NE swell from the low/high combo creep up in size into the 3ft range. Early winds from the NW-N/NW will shift N-N/NE and really freshen through the day. Reaching strong wind status and whipping up some NE windswell into the mix. That should add 2-3ft of size, bigger on the South Coast. 

NE windswell will be dominant into Wed morning with size to 3ft. As a small low scoots into the Tasman winds will shift W/NW-W then SW so get in early for improving conditions with size easing through the a’noon.

The latter part of the working week will see size dribble away with residual E/NE-E swells to 2ft Thurs, down even further Fri. A long trough of low pressure does form in the Tasman later this week and while current modelling has a constrained fetch confined to the eastern Tasman there is a chance we could see a little bump in size from E’ly winds feeding into the trough. We’ll see how that looks on Wed.

This weekend (July 26-27)

We’ll see N’lies ramp right up Sat as a low approaches from the west. Small early from the E-E/NE with 2ft surf expected. As N-N/NE winds ramp up through the a’noon we should see NE windswell build to 3 occ. 4ft. 

That NE windswell drops out quickly Sun as the low shunts the fetch away eastwards and brings an offshore flow. NW winds will shift W/NW  to W’ly through the day and we’ll see become tiny through the a’noon after a few clean 2 footers for the early.

Next week (July 28 onwards)

Not much expected to start there new week. The low is expected to stall near Tasmania, and with high pressure right up in the sub-tropics we’ll see a stiff W’ly-W/NW’ly flow through Mon and possibly into Tues with tiny surf

S swells should resume from mid-week, either as a result of fronts pushing proximate to the NSW coast or the low developing a fetch SE of Tasmania- models are offering divergence outputs there.

Nothing too sizey at this stage, although longer term GFS has a monster low under the continent as we head into August, better positioned for the southern states but still offering possibility of S’ly groundswell wrap for the Eastern seaboard.

We’ll see how it looks on Wed.