Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid but raggedy S swell Thurs, likely easing through the day with fresh SW-S/SW winds
• Nice blend of smaller but better quality S-S/SE swells Fri with light winds 
• Quality but smaller S-S/SE swells this weekend with offshore winds
• Easing swells early next week with a quiet period through the working week
• Possible S swell late next week, Fri looks most likely. 
• Check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Small clean morning yesterday with a babyfood blend of E and leftover S swells to 2ft. Clean conditions extended into the late morning before winds tended S/SW through S and blew out most open beaches. Winds have freshened o/night from the S/SW-S and we’ve got a raggedy, raw short range S swell in the water this morning, currently 5-6ft and still building. Very wind affected already at S facing beaches with much smaller surf at protected spots. 

Raggedy, raw S swell on the build

This week (Jun 4-6)

We’ve got a complex low in the Tasman, deepened after interaction with a cold front, which is attaining maximum intensity today. A trough off the low is swinging northwards, accentuating a proximate fetch of strong to low end gale force S/SW-S winds up along the NSW Coast. A secondary low in the gyre is moving towards the South Island. With the Tasman Sea inflamed by these robust S’ly fetches we’ll see strong S’ly swells in the short term, improving in quality as size eases from the proximate fetch and better quality swell trains fill in from below and adjacent to the South Island. Conditions look to rapidly improve as high pressure moves over central/NENSW late this week. 

In the short run we’re still looking at vigorous surf from the S tomorrow, with a mod/fresh S/SW- S’ly flow (SW briefly inshore early, longer on the Northern beaches) which should ease off through the a’noon and tend more S/SW-SW. Wave quality will still be on the raw side but a little more wavelength compared to today should see a bit more line in the swell and size will still be in the 6-8ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 8-10 likely on exposed S facing reefs and coasts. By the a’noon we should see an easing trend in play as local S swell trains ease out of the mix with bigger sets dropping down into the 5-6ft range. 

Friday still looks good. High pressure rapidly moves NE with winds swinging SW through W overnight and then tending W/NW through NW as a frontal system approaches from the Bight. Quality mid-period S swell in the 4-5ft range is expected with some 6ft sets at more exposed S facing coasts like the Hunter. Size and consistency will soften gradually through the a’noon. Friday should be a good day.

This weekend (June 7-8)

The weekend is looking good. A synoptic W’ly flow should establish as high pressure retreats further north and fronts sweep across the SE of the country. These winds will veer around through W/NW to W and NW but conditions should remain offshore/groomed most of the day at S facing beaches. 

Surf-wise better quality swell trains from below the South Island, mixed with sideband energy from the Tasman Sea retreating fetch should hold 3-4ft surf Sat morning, softening a little through the day and then likely improving late as a pulse of S/SE swell fills in with 4ft sets. 

That pulse should hold into Sun supplying some really fun waves for the day. Again, with the timing of the swell, we should see size ease off through the a’noon. 

Next week (Jun 9 onwards)

A low pressure system moves into the Tasman, through Bass Strait and then stalls or retrogrades on Mon into mid-week. 

The upshot of that is synoptic W’ly-NW'ly winds and easing swells.

Mon should have fun leftovers from the S/SE to 2-3ft and easing. 

By Tues and into Wed surf looks to become tiny- well below 2ft and more likely in the 1-1.5ft range. Possibly surfable on a log. 

Tiny again into Thurs.

Models are offering mixed messaging on the fate of the low but we may see a S swell late in the week as the low finally moves E and develops a fetch on the western flank, likely enhanced by a cold front and large high moving through the Bight (see below).

We’ll pencil in a new S swell through Fri, easing next weekend and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then!