Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 30th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S/SE swell Sat AM with light morning winds, tending SE in the a’noon
• Solid long period S'ly swell late Sat, easing Sun and into Mon, Sun AM looks the best of it 
• Potential for small, fun NE swell Tues into Wed from winds feeding into low- winds look favourable
• Front and low forming in Tasman Wed see a spike in S swell Wed PM
• Solid S swell Thurs, likely easing into Fri
• Easing swells next weekend
• More S swell likely medium term, possibly sizey

Recap

Raggedy S swell came in a bit under expectations yesterday as the Tasman low scooted off the the east more quickly than modelled. Size topped out in the 6-8ft range at S facing beaches North and South of Sydney with smaller surf at the Harbour City. Conditions were clean to cleanish early under an offshore flow before S’ly winds kicked in. Smaller today, in the 3-5ft range and generally lumpy at most spots despite a morning offshore breeze. More protected spots are benefiting from a bit more E in the swell (S/SE as opposed to straight S) and there are some quality waves available at these spots out of the S’ly flow. 

Smaller this morning but better swell direction sending some quality into more sheltered spots

This weekend (May 31 - Jun 1)

Little change to the weekend f/cast. We’ve currently got a deep polar low with two strong embedded fronts tracking NE into the lower Tasman. High pressure moves up over NSW with easing pressure gradients while a trough deepens off the QLD coast and drifts south over the weekend.

We’ll still see some S’ly flow Sat but winds should be light and W’ly biased in the morning (W-W/SW) swinging light S through SE as the day goes on. Residual S/SE-SE swell from the current low holds some 3ft surf before longer period S swell looks to fill in through the late morning/lunch-time hours. By the mid a’noon we should be seeing 4-5ft sets at S facing beaches, bigger sets possible at direct S facing reefs although S’ly quarter winds will put a bit lump and bump on them. 

Sun looks primo as far as conditions are concerned with light morning offshores extending well into the day before tending to light/variable seabreezes. The early should be smoking at S facing beaches and reefs as long period S swell in the 15-16 second band looks to peak in the 5-6ft range with bigger 8ft sets likely at deepwater adjacent reefs. Even more sheltered spots should have some fun waves, augmented by a small, background E swell. Sets will ease though the later morning and through the a’noon but we should see plenty of fun waves through the a’noon as swells ease. 

Next week (Jun 2 onwards)

Easing S swells into Mon with some small leftovers to 2-3ft dropping through the day. Conditions should be clean as high pressure moves NE and the trough of low pressure moves south, directing a N-NW flow across the coast. 

Models are suggesting tiny surf Tues with winds swinging offshore as the trough of low pressure moves south and forms a weak, closed low in the Central Tasman. Odds are still reasonable though that we’ll see some small, workable E/NE-NE swell through Tues from local winds feeding into the system (see below). It’s not a strong fetch but it is well aimed and proximate so we should see some clean 2ft surf Tues- possibly with 3ft sets if the infeed ramps up a notch. Keep expectations low, but beachies are worth a look under offshore conditions with such a favourable swell direction.

Wed is a different story. We’ll see a front enter the Tasman, and merge with the weak surface low, with a long S-SW fetch developing through the Tasman and proximate to the NSW Coast. Models are still offering divergent takes on the evolution of the system with GFS now much more bullish than EC. Regardless, we’ll see W’ly winds swing fresh SW through S/SW later Wed, accompanied by a steep rise in new S swell. We’ll pencil in surf building to 6-8ft at exposed S facing spots, smaller into more sheltered areas and fine tune on Mon. 

Plenty of size into Thurs, although with such model divergence it’s hard to have confidence in the trend. GFS suggests a slow easing as a complex low moves through the Tasman, with EC suggesting a smaller peak and faster easing trend through Thurs as high pressure moves over the state. We should see at least 5-6ft of S swell Thurs morning, with some sort of easing trend in play through the a’noon. 

Low confidence for Fri into Sat as much depends on whether the low sticks around in the Tasman with a fetch near the South Island (GFS) or has exited the Tasman (EC). Under the GFS resolution we’ll see plenty of swell into Fri, easing Sat. 

EC suggests much smaller surf, with high pressure in the Tasman and northerly winds developing. 

We’ll see how it looks on Mon.

Medium term looks like a continuation of swells from the S with more frontal intrusion into the Tasman backed by a strong high moving through the Bight.

Check back Mon for the latest and until then, have a great weekend!