Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 23rd May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid, clean though slowly easing surf all weekend and into early next week
• Inconsistent E/NE groundswell building late Thur, peaking Fri
• Sizeable S'ly swell building Wed/peaking Thurs, easing Fri as strong front/low pushes into Tasman
• SW winds expected for this swell combo
• S’ly groundswell expected first week of winter.

Recap

Rain, onshore winds and plenty of E-E/NE swell as a coastal trough (and now embedded low) drift south down the NSW coastline. Yesterday was in the  5-6ft range and today is bigger 6 occ. 8ft with surface conditions still diabolical under a straight onshore flow. We should see winds moderate and drop out through the day, with a tendency towards NW breezes as the low/trough continues southwards. 

Still a mess this morning but conditions will improve through the day

This weekend (May 24 - 25)

Phew- after a hectic week of La Niña influenced weather we should be on the other side of it this weekend as the trough/low continues to slide down the East Coast towards the Gippsland/Bass Strait coast. 

As it does, winds shift offshore W-NW while a broad fetch of E/NE-NE winds slowly contracts to the east. We’ll see plenty of swell from this low-carb nor-easter, with a slow easing trend over the weekend, more pronounced on Sun. 

Expect mod W-NW winds Sat, even tending to fresh breezes which should iron out all the onshore lump and bump from this week’s weather event. Size still in the 4-6ft range Sat, just softening a touch through the a’noon.

Similar winds for Sun although lighter and we’ll see a further easing in size and consistency, with 3-5ft surf, dropping back to 3 occ.4ft through the day. We may see a bit of long range reinforcement from a fetch in the South Pacific with some inconsistent 3ft sets, not likely to stand out much against the prevailing swell trains.  

Next week (May 26 onwards)

Active week ahead next week with the first cold outbreak of the season expected as a major front and deep parent low push across the SE of the continent and into the Tasman Sea respectively. That will see a major blast of S swell next week which wave models appear to be underestimating at present.

That dominant S swell is likely to overshadow smaller, long range E/NE swell from a retreating E’ly dip/tropical low which now looks to reach peak intensity in Samoan longitudes. That extra travel distance will shave off size and consistency from swell decay and swells are not likely to show until later in the week, with late Thurs into Fri seeing inconsistent 3ft sets.

Expect a small leftover E swell Mon in the 2-3ft range with W/NW winds tending pre-frontal NW to N at mod/fresh paces. 

Windy day Tues as the cold front sweeps across the state. We’ll see fresh and gusty W’ly winds, tending more W/SW through the a’noon. Just a trace of E swell in the water to 2ft or less. Depending on the timing of the front we may see a late kick in new S swell- more likely that will occur after dark . 

By Wed though, we’ll see a fresh S’ly swell on the build. A mix of directional S swell trains as a very broad fetch moves into the Tasman and SE of Tasmania. The European model has a very powerful low moving NE into the Tasman , with GFS a slightly weaker system. A conservative estimate would suggest at least 6ft of S swell at S exposed breaks with bigger surf at Bommies and more exposed S facing coasts. Don’t be surprised if we see an upgrade in size on Mon. SW winds are fresh and gusty Wed, easing and tending more S’ly through the day.

Still plenty of size Thurs though on an easing trend with winds SW tending S’ly to S/SE’ly in the a’noon as a dominant high moves E from the Bight.

S swell eases a notch through Fri but remains elevated, under current modelling.

Follow-up fronts look to supply reinforcing S’ly energy into next weekend.

High pressure then occupies the Tasman with settled conditions, tending to N’ly winds.

More strong frontal activity under the continent and below 40S to the polar regions suggests S’ly groundswell pulses into the first week of winter. 

We’ll investigate that further on Mon.

Until then, hope you dry out (on land), and have a great weekend!