Sidenote: Tim Bonython is bringing "Maya and the Wave" to the Big Screen this week -  a docco featuring the trials & tribulations of Maya Gabeira as she achieved the World Record for the biggest wave ridden by a woman. Features a Q&A session with director Stephanie Johnes and Tim at most shows. More info/tickets here: https://event.asmf.net.au/

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 9th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun weekend with light winds and an easing swell combo Sat, rebuilding E/NE Sun
• Punchy E/NE beachies Mon/Tues with generally light winds
• Nice S'ly groundswell Mon too
• Easing size from Wed

Recap

Small clean E/NE swell early Thursday gave way to a mid-morning S’ly change and a robust increase in short range windswell into the afternoon. This morning has dawned clean again with light offshore winds (except Newy) and a fun combo of swells (mainly S/SE) in the 4-5ft range. Winds are now light onshore and size is easing. 

Decent chunks along the Queensie/North Steyne stretch this morning

This weekend (May10-11)

No major changes to the weekend outlook.

A peaky combo of SE and E swells will maintain fun waves on Saturday, with an easing trend from today - still some 3ft sets early at the swell magnets but generally down into the 2-3ft range at most beaches, and becoming a little smaller into the afternoon. 

Early light winds will keep conditions clean but there is a risk that easterlies will crop up into the afternoon (mainly north from Sydney into the Hunter region). 

Similar conditions are expected on Sunday - if anything with a slight tweak in the afternoon wind to the E/NE - and initially undersized surf will build from the E/NE to 2-3ft to 3ft+by late afternoon, sourced from a strengthening ridge in the Northern Tasman Sea. 

This fetch is somewhat off-axis within our swell window but stationary and quite broad, which should allow for a decent spread into Southern NSW (though expect smaller wave heights south from the Illawarra).

Next week (May 12 onwards)

There’s actually a couple of E/NE swell sources for early next week. 

Over the last few days a broad high east of New Zealand has cradled a southward-moving tropical depression south of Tahiti, resulting in a broad E’ly fetch east and south-east of Fiji. This, in addition to the aforementioned ridge in the Tasman Sea, are both generating E’ly quadrant energy that will fill into the NSW coast on Monday and Tuesday, offering peaky 3-4ft sets at most open beaches.

A weak ridge of high pressure should maintain light variable winds and thus clean conditions overall, though we need to remember that ‘variable’ means ‘from any direction’, which could be onshore. No major strength is on the cards right now though.

Also expected to be in the water on Monday is a small long period S’ly swell, generated by a small but tight polar low well south of Tasmania today (see below). Set waves will be extremely inconsistent but could produce 3-4ft waves at beaches with good southerly exposure - in fact given core winds were up to 40-50kts, some of the region's more reliable south swell magnets could punch a little higher than that too. The prospects of a S and E/NE swell combo is pretty exciting too, given the light synoptic winds.  

Monday's southerly swell will ease back through Tuesday and the E/NE swell combo will ease slowly from Wednesday onwards. 

Long term suggests a shallow southerly change Wednesday afternoon but otherwise limited swell sources from the south owing to a strong zonal (west-east) storm track below Tasmania. This may break down towards the end of the week - leading to increasing prospects later next weekend and into the following week - but it’s too early to have confidence.

Otherwise, lingering troughiness through the southern Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea isn’t currently modeled to produce anything worthwhile, however I have a sneaking suspicion that we could see a surface feature of interest develop somewhere in the eastern Tasman Sea into the longer term, i.e. mid-late next week into the weekend. Most of the ingredients will be present, all we need is some consolidation, and a trigger. 

More on that in Monday’s update. Have a great weekend!