Sidenote: Tim Bonython is bringing "Maya and the Wave" to the Big Screen this week -  a docco featuring the trials & tribulations of Maya Gabeira as she achieved the World Record for the biggest wave ridden by a woman. Features a Q&A session with director Stephanie Johnes and Tim at most shows. More info/tickets here: https://event.asmf.net.au/

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 7th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small uptick in quality and size from the E-E/NE building in Thurs, peaking Fri 
• Winds becoming fresh S’ly on Thurs, tending more S-SE Fri (lighter SW inshore early)
• Fun blend of E/SE-SE swells again this weekend with light winds
• Traces of long period S swell Sun, a notch bigger Mon
• More E swell next week, remaining fun-sized Mon-Wed
• Traces of S swell later next week
• Potential for much sizier S swell next weekend - low confidence in specifics so check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Not much to it yesterday with small E’ly swells topping out in the 2ft range (mostly 1-2ft), nice and clean in the morning under light offshore winds before N’ly winds kicked up at light/mod paces. Clean again this morning with only small amounts of E'ly swell to 1-1.5ft suitable for logs and beginners. 

Only small- but the odd little beachie peak on offer

This week (May7-9)

The Eastern seaboard is in between two large highs at the moment with a system near New Zealand still generating surf via a tradewind fetch and a new system moving through the Bight about to replicate it. In between, a trough and cold front are currently approaching Tasmania, expected to bring a vigorous S’ly change o/night, bringing a spike in short range S swell short term. Once the strong high ridges in and establishes a broad fetch in the Tasman it will become the main swell source over the weekend and into next week.

In the short run we’ll see an undersized start tomorrow with a mod SW flow, quickly tending S’ly and reaching strong wind status through the a’noon. We’ll see some 2ft surf early, with an uptick in E/NE swell to 2-3ft becoming overshadowed quickly by a spike in S swell through the a’noon, building through the 3-4ft range into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches by close of play. If you can get out of the wind there’ll be some fun options around. 

Friday looks more muscular all around with a stronger signal of mid period S swell and E/NE swell combo. Early winds should be workable with a W-SW flow but that will swing through the morning through S then SE so don’t leave it too long. Size will be in the 4-5ft range from the S with 3ft sets from the E/NE, potentially throwing up some juicy a-frames. Expect that S swell signal to fade out quite steadily through the a’noon.

This weekend (May10-11)

High pressure drifting over Southern NSW into the Tasman this weekend as outlined on Mon with a similar weekend to the last wind-wise as pressure gradients slacken. 

Good odds for morning land breezes Sat before winds shift to light SE-E breezes. Size will be down from Fri but we should still see a fun mix of SE and E/NE swells to 3ft, offering up fun waves most of the day.

Very similar winds Sun as the high is slow moving- light land breezes in the morning, tending to light SE-E breezes. We’ll see E swell start to perk up Sun as winds from the top of the high generate swells from the Northern Tasman. Small E’ly swells to 2ft early, should perk up a notch into the 2-3ft range through the day, offering a few peaky beachies with a light onshore flow on it. We may see some long period S swell wrap from a polar low passing by late this week. Definitely worth a look at S facing beaches in the a’noon to see if sets to 2-3ft are showing. 

Next week (May 12 onwards)

A big, slow moving high in the Tasman next week will slowly migrate towards New Zealand, holding a broad fetch of SE’ly winds across the Coral Sea, South Pacific slot and into the Northern Tasman. 

We’ll see E’ly swells and light winds from this pattern through until mid next week. Models are suggesting surf to 4ft- that might be a little optimistic considering wind speeds in the fetch. Even if wave models are overcooking it a notch we’ll still see fun waves through Mon-Wed next week under light winds. 

Long period S swell Mon should show a few 3ft sets at S swell magnets before easing.

The southern swell window remains suppressed by high pressure but we may see some traces of sideband S swell from poorly positioned fetches (better aimed at South Pacific targets) next week. We’ll see how they look on Fri but as E swells wane later next week small S swells are possible Thurs/Fri.

Much better prospects medium term as blocking high pressure moves away and a more favourably positioned long wave trough node suggests a strong frontal intrusion late next week or into the weekend 17-18/5, potentially spawning a deep, low pressure system. 

If models hold true, we could be looking at some very sizey S swell in that period or just after. 

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!