Sidenote: Tim Bonython is bringing "Maya and the Wave" to the Big Screen this week -  a docco featuring the trials & tribulations of Maya Gabeira as she achieved the World Record for the biggest wave ridden by a woman. Features a Q&A session with director Stephanie Johnes and Tim at most shows. More info/tickets here: https://event.asmf.net.au/

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 5th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E’ly swells continue Mon into Tues with winds tending N’ly, more NW on Tues
• Better quality and size from the E-E/NE building in Thurs, peaking Fri with S’ly winds
• Fun blend of E/SE-SE swells again this weekend with light winds
• Traces of long period S swell Sun, a notch bigger Mon
• More E swell next week, possibly sizing up mid week- stay tuned for next update Wed

Recap

Fun waves over the weekend with Sat seeing a nice blend of SE-E/SE swells to 4ft and clean morning conditions before SE winds kicked up. Clean again Sun morning with fun sized 3ft surf before light a’noon breezes. Size has continued to ease into today with some clean 2ft E’ly leftovers and clean autumn conditions. 

Fun beachies on the weekend 

This week (May5-9)

We’ll see the current dominant high (1034hPa) over New Zealand which is directing a broad trade fetch through the South Pacific and into the Coral Sea slowly migrate eastwards this week with an E’ly dip form a trough of low pressure due E of SEQLD mid week. This will drag the trade fetch southwards before another dominant high quickly re-establishes a firm ridge and SE surge on Thursday, bringing another round of SE tending E/SE swell favouring the sub-tropics for size. 

In the short run we’ll see not much action as the current swell cycle bottoms out and the high over NZ directs a N’ly flow over temperate NSW. Bring a big board to the beach and there may be some rideable 1-2ft surf depending on bank and tide but barely worth it on a shorty. 

Not much more in the way of size for Wed but with a high cell to the north and frontal system being shunted southwards we should see a more W’ly flow (tending NW-N through the day) which at least suggests some small, clean surf though remaining in the 1-2ft range. 

By Thurs we’ll see an uptick in E/NE swell as the trough drags the trade fetch southwards. Compared to Fridays notes windspeeds look weaker the fetch is further away and size will be duration limited. We should still see 2ft surf in the morning, with 3ft sets by the a’noon. Problem will be a stiff S’ly flow as the new high pressure ridge builds. That will generate some short range S’ly swell to 3ft through the a’noon. Early winds look best with a W-SW flow before tracking S’ly then S/SE-SE. Swell direction will get into more sheltered spots so there will be some options available.

Similar size surf from the E/NE Fri with 3ft sets along with some short range S-S/SE swell in the mix. The ridge relaxes through Fri leaving a S-SE flow at light/mod paces so we should see morning land breezes across the region for the early with a bit of leftover S’ly bump running through it. Nothing incredible but there should be some fun options for Fri.

This weekend (May10-11)

High pressure sitting over Southern NSW and then drifting into the Tasman will see a weekend of light winds, with early land breezes and a’noon E’ly breezes (more NE south of Jervis Bay). 

SE winds extend from the Coral Sea right through the Northern to Central Tasman and while size will favour the sub-tropics we’ll still see workable levels of E/SE swell from this fetch in temperate regions. 

No great size to it but Sat looks to have fun waves in the 2-3ft range.

Similar Sun, possibly a notch bigger (more 3ft sets, occ. 3ft+).

Frontal activity is well suppressed but a polar low may send some traces of long period swell up the Pipe Sun with S swell magnets seeing some 2-3ft sets.

Next week (May 12 onwards)

We’ll see E swell chugging away next week as the high becomes slow moving and the southern extent of the fetch sits in Northern Tasman latitudes. Light winds look to continue into early next week, trending more N’ly either later Mon or into Tues as the high moves away.

The slow moving polar low under the continent later this week should keep S facing beaches active with 3ft sets Mon.

We may see a nice kick in size from the E either from a retrograding element in the fetch or a trough/E’ly dip forming next week.

Hard to have any confidence in that scenario this far out, so we’ll flag it for now and put fresh eyes on it Wed. 

Seeya then!