Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Freshening S-SE winds Tues with some developing short range S-SE swell
• Onshore winds Wed with short range SE-E swells
• Some long period S swell buried in the mix Wed/Thurs
• Improving winds Thurs with a small blend of swells
• Fun but inconsistent E swell Fri, easing into Sat
• Offshore winds likely Sat
• SW-S winds freshening Sun as low moves offshore with a spike in new S swell
• Likely easing S swell early next week before a new pulse of better quality S swell 
• Another small but fun E swell likely mid next week, potentially with light winds

Recap

Good Fridays all-time swell slowly eased over the Easter weekend. Sat still saw plenty of size with 6-8ft sets through the morning, slowly backing down in the second half of the day under light morning offshores and seabreezes. Sunday offered up a more user-friendly 3-4ft (occ. 5ft set) with clean morning conditions and a slow ease through the day. Back to small surf today with a few 2ft waves to one had under light morning winds from the NW, expected to tend N’ly before an a’noon brisk SW/S change. 

Pumping beachie barrels on offer Sat if you could get out to them

This week (Apr 21-25)

We’ve got a more subdued synoptic outlook this week with weak high pressure currently in the Tasman and a complex troughy area of low pressure situated off the Southern NSW/Gippsland coast. That trough moves NE, backed by a large high pressure centre currently in the Bight. We’ll see the trough bring onshore winds and swell as it moves up the NSW Coast through the first half of this week. That will mostly obscure some traces of long period S swell pushing up the Tasman. A distant low in the South Pacific currently in Tongan latitudes will send some small but good quality E’ly swell late this week, with more favourable winds. 

In the short run we’ll see the trough move NE through tomorrow, with a brief window of lighter SW/S winds before winds quickly freshen from the S then tend SE at fresh paces. Small amounts of E swell may be worth a grovel with short range S-S/SE swell building through the day to 3ft. It’ll be raggedy and of low quality so keep expectations pegged low. 

With the trough expected off the MNC/Northern Rivers on Wed and the high moving towards Tasmania we’ll see a high pressure ridge up the entire eastern seaboard and onshore winds through Wed, mostly from the SE, tending E/SE to E’ly through the day at mod/fresh paces, although an easing trend is expected through the a’noon. That won’t be enough to clean anything up so expect a messy surf from the E/SE-E to 3ft. There will be some long range S groundswell buried in underneath it somewhere with sets to 3ft at S facing beaches, although they will likely be blown out.

We’ll see pressure gradient relax on Thurs with a fair chance for a morning land breeze before light E’ly tending NE breezes through the day. Local swell trains from the Tasman Sea hold SE-E swells in the 2-3ft range with an easing trend. Long period S swell should come into play more with sets to 3 occ. 4ft at select S swell magnets under more benign surface conditions for those places exposed to S groundswells. 

Winds will shift more definitively to the N on Fri with a morning land breeze from the W-W/NW tending to N/NE breezes at mod paces in the a’noon. A current low and strong high combo in the South Pacific looks to send quality but very inconsistent E’ly swell to make landfall on Fri. In the absence of any other major swells this will provide some fun but very slow sets from the E in the 3ft range. Be prepared for some very long waits though.

This weekend (Apr 26-27) 

We’ll see another trough approach the region this weekend, bringing a S’ly change at some stage as it moves offshore and forms a low. As this stage it looks like we will see an initial NW flow on Sat, tending W’ly through the day, although the European model suggests the SW-S change will push through Sat a’noon. Only small surf expected Sat with some inconsistent sets from the South Pacific and some E/NE swell from an infeed into the approaching trough/low- all topping out around 2 occ. 3ft. If winds play ball, there should be a few fun beachies about. 

Sun looks more robust with the trough moving offshore and forming a broad surface low. Wind-wise we’d expect a fresh SW tending S’ly flow through Sun as pressure gradients tighten along the coast. With that, a sharp spike in new, short range S swell is expected, likely pushing up into the 3-5ft range through the day. We’ll fine-tune size and timing as we go through the week.

Next week (Apr 28 onwards)

Quite a complicated outlook for next week with plenty of model divergence so we’ll sketch out the basic outline and fill in the details as we get more model agreement. 

The weekend’s low looks to skip away quite quickly so easing S swells are on the cards for early next week. 

Another S’ly change is likely Mon or Tues as a front pushes through the  Tasman, backed by another strong high. We should see some S swell from this broad scale pattern, along with S’ly winds, possibly easing quickly as high pressure moves up over southern NSW.

Also in play is a potential E swell from a tropical low moving towards the North Island onto a pre-existing E’ly fetch. The pattern looks quite mobile at present, so no major size is expected but swell from the Eastern quadrant looks likely as we move into the middle of next week. 

In other words, typical autumn pattern of medium size swells from the E and S- potentially combining with light winds.

We’ll pencil it in for now and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.