Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 22nd Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mix of S swells Sat morning with light winds, new E-E/NE swell shows late (Sun better bet)
• Great mix of S and E/NE swells Sun with light winds
• Longer period S swell Mon and E/NE swell with continuing light winds
• Clean leftovers Tues, with reinforcing S swell arriving late PM
• Last day of S'ly groundswell Wed, with light N winds
• Surf becoming small/tiny Thurs/Fri
• Tracking more E swell first week of May, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Yesterday saw a nice morning session with light offshore winds and clean 3-4ft surf from a variety of swell trains from the S through SE. Surf quality has been very variable through the region with bathymetry being affected by storm swells earlier in the month. If your chosen spot had good sand or reef, then good waves were on offer. S’ly winds kicked in hard through the day as a cold front pushed through and blew most spots out apart from sheltered corners. Today has continued to be wind affected across the region SE winds marring most spots. Size remains in the 3-4ft range with mostly short range S’ly swell on offer. 

Energetic but scrappy way to end the week, cleaner days ahead

This weekend (Apr 23 - 24)

Just a few slight tweaks to the long weekend f/cast. The ridge does weaken over the weekend as high pressure inches up over Southern NSW, but there will still be a bit of onshore flow, especially Sat. That being said, we should still see a light/variable flow over most of the region for the early on Sat. Those winds will tend to light/mod E to E/SE through the day.

S swell trains are still expected in the 3ft range, with some bigger 3-4ft surf on offer on the Hunter. E swell from the South Pacific source is a slight possiblity to show right around dark- and with no buoy data to rely on it’ll be a case of keeping an eye on things late. Sunday is a much better bet. 

Winds look good Sunday morning, which is great news because a great blend of swell trains is expected to make landfall. Long period S swell should fill in through the morning with some 3-4ft sets across S facing beaches, more prominent through the late morning, early afternoon. E swell in the 3ft range will see inconsistent sets filling in through the late morning. Filling in the gaps will be some mid period S to S/SE swell. Keep in mind surf quality will be dependent on local bathymetry after all the storm swells this Autumn. Winds look to stay light through most of the day, just kicking up a notch mid afternoon before settling down again late. 

Sunday is definitely worth some aquatic attention.

Next week (Apr 25 onwards)

Still on track for a nice pulse of long period S swell to start the week. Models have slightly downgraded the storm, with the fetch now a bit more mobile and zonally oriented (W-E). Nonetheless we’ll see good quality long lines from the S in the water Mon morning, with sets in the 3-4ft range across most S exposed breaks, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. With swell periods in the 15 second range there will be outliers with bigger sets so factor that in if you are on the hunt for more juice. Plenty of E swell from the North Island source as well with inconsistent 3ft surf and some bigger sets on offer. Light winds and afternoon seabreezes should be good for all day surfing on the ANZAC holiday.

The trend will be downwards into Tuesday with a smaller blend of leftover S swell in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches and some smaller E swell in the 2ft range with leftover sets hitting 3ft. Light winds continue so plenty of fun surf is on offer. 

A final S swell pulse from the strong series of front passing through the lower Tasman is expected late Tues into Wed. This will see S facing beaches push back into the 3ft range on dark - if the swell arrives as expected.

Wed morning is a safer bet as long period S swell trains make landfall in the 3ft range. With swell periods up in the 15-17 second period band this will be another very directional pulse where certain S swell magnets will punch well above their weight, with some 3ft+ or even 4ft+ sets on offer. Winds look great for S swell magnets Wed, as high pressure drifts into the Tasman and a light N to NE flow becomes established. 

Easing swells and N’ly winds pad out the rest of next week. Looks like a couple of small days through Thurs and Fri with surf around 1-2ft and a weak NE windswell possible Fri, unlikely to exceed 2ft.

Longer term and a long tradewind fetch is expected to draw out into the South Pacific through next week. It’s much better aimed at sub-tropical targets but there should be some small E swell on offer through the first week of May. A front is also on the radar for next weekend with S swell potential. 

We’ll run the ruler over those prospects on Mon.

In the meantime, have a great long weekend!