Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 19th June)

Best Days: Thurs: strong building S'ly swell with mainly light winds. Fri/Sat: plenty of south swell but with tricky winds. Sun/Mon/Tues: decent S/SE tending SE swell, with light winds. Wed/Thurs: fun SE to E/SE swell with light winds. 

Recap: Tuesday delivered fantastic waves with building surf out of the east to 3-4ft, and mainly light offshore winds keeping conditions smooth. Size eased a little today but still managed some 3-4ft sets early. Winds were offshore early morning ahead of a moderate to fresh S’ly change.

Manly still on the pump this morning

This week (June 20 - 21)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

So, the fetch that generated our current E’ly swell is slowly abating across the central eastern Tasman Sea. This means we’ll see a gradual easing of E’ly swell through Thursday and Friday, probably 2-3ft both days but a little smaller as Friday wears on, and a little less consistent to.

Since Monday, the models have made some major changes in the structure of the low associated with today’s southerly change. They’ve since stalled it off the east coast of Tasmania, and ramped up surface wind speeds, generating a strong S'ly swell for Thursday. It’s then expected to weaken overnight before restrengthening off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island into Thursday, generating another pulse for the weekend. 

As such, the surf outlook has increased for Thursday, with stronger S’ly swell expected to build to 4-5ft, maybe 4-6ft through the day (the models are slightly undercalling this event, and I think their timing is a little late too). We may see a few bigger sets across the Hunter region (and offshore bombies) late in the day as the swell period draws out. 

Expect much smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure, though the E’ly swell will certainly add some nice peaky options to protected beaches. And generally light winds - just an early lingering moderate sou’wester - will create clean conditions. 

On Friday we’ll see temporarily easing S’ly swells from Thursday back to 3-4ft at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere), with freshening W/SW tending SW then S/SW winds as another front pushes up the coast. This will generate some windy short range swell for the afternoon, up to 3-5ft at south facing beaches though quality will be an issue. As such protected southern corners will be your best option throughout the day. 

This weekend (June 22 - 23)

Saturday looks windy with a ridge of high pressure maintaining fresh southerly winds across most coasts. We should see isolated pockets of early SW winds but they’ll be the exception rather than the norm.

As for surf, there’l be a mix of southerly energy in the water: some mid-range swell from the strengthening fetch off the coast throughout Friday, plus some longer period S/SE energy from Thursday’s re-intensification of the southern Tasman Low off the SW tip of New Zealand.

The models are pushing 5-6ft for Saturday but I reckon this is slightly overcooked, I feel it’ll be smaller around 4-5ft at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere) and with fresh southerlies conditions won’t be great. The E’ly swell of the previous days will be much smaller too so protected southern corners won’t have a lot of size. 

Lighter winds are expected on Sunday with an easing mix of southerly swells across the coast from 3-5ft to 3ft at south facing beaches (again, smaller elsewhere). Conditions won’t be perfect but it’ll be improving rapidly. 

Next week (June 24 onwards)

The models are meandering the southern Tasman Low slowly to the north over the weekend, which suggests an extended run of moderate, S/SE tending SE and maybe E/SE swell for much of next week, around 3ft most days but possibly a little bigger through Monday and Tuesday near 3-5ft. Winds should be light too under a weak pressure pattern.

Thumbs up, eh? Winter’s been pretty good so far. More in Friday’s update.