Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday July 4th)

Best Days: Keen surfers Friday, beaches Saturday morning, keen surfers Tuesday and Wednesday mornings

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S/SW swell tomorrow with N/NW tending variable NE winds
• Tiny Sun with N/NW winds ahead of a late S change
• Small increase in mid-period SW swell later Sun and Mon AM with N/NW tending N/NE winds Mon
• Small, inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Wed PM with N/NW winds

Recap

The surf has been clean and fun to 2ft yesterday and this morning, with our new pulse of mid-period S/SW swell for today not really showing that well.

This weekend and next week (Jul 5 - 11)

We’ve got an easing trend over the weekend, with the S/SW swell expected today due to ease back from 2ft tomorrow morning, even smaller Sunday. A N/NW tending variable NE breeze is due tomorrow with a N/NW offshore Sunday morning ahead of a shallow S change.

Later in the day Sunday but more so Monday morning, a small lift in mid-period SW swell is due, generated today and tomorrow by a polar front that’s generating W/NW winds along the shelf.

Only 2ft sets are due and a N/NW tending N/NE breeze will create decent conditions through the morning, a touch funky later as the swell eases.

Looking at the rest of the week, and as touched on in the earlier updates this week, a strong frontal progression pushing up and across Western Australia Sunday/Monday will be too far north of our swell window to generate any decent size for us, with it breaking down while pushing east into the middle of next week.

A short burst of severe-gale W/SW-SW winds more favourably aligned in our swell window Monday morning may generate a small W/SW groundswell for Wednesday afternoon to 1-2ft under N/NW offshores. We'll confirm this Monday.

Longer term, into next weekend we might see a bit more size but at this stage the models diverge regarding the incoming frontal activity. More on this Monday, have a great weekend!