Plenty of swell but with average winds
Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 5th August)
Best Days: Saturday morning, possibly early Sunday
Our new SW groundswell filled in yesterday but conditions weren't ideal with westerly winds, swinging more onshore through the day. Today it's cold, stormy and poor with a S'ly windswell.
This week and weekend (Aug 6 - 9)
The cold low sitting east of us today will move off to the north-east tomorrow, resulting in a drop in windswell from 3ft+ or so out of the S/SE but with strong S/SW winds.
The chance for a possible early offshore with the new SW groundswell Friday isn't looking good. We'll instead see moderate W/SW winds, shifting S/SE through the day.
Size wise, there's been no change to the expected size with the polar front due to provide solid 4ft sets through Friday, easing Saturday from 2-3ft. We'll hopefully see a more variable wind Saturday morning as the swell eases, though the afternoon looks bumpy with a S'ly breeze.
Moving into Sunday and we should see a good new long-period SW groundswell, with a follow up due Monday morning.
Sunday's swell is being generated by a good though distant fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds east of the Heard Island region, pushing along the polar shelf towards us while weakening.
Inconsistent 2-3ft sets are due Sunday from this first swell source, while come Monday some new long-period S/SW groundswell is expected from a late forming polar low south of us on the weekend.
This should maintain 3ft sets though winds for both days look mostly onshore from the W/SW-SW as the polar low clips the state. Sunday morning may see an early W'ly but we'll review this Friday.
Longer term there's a bit more S'ly swell on the cards with cleaner conditions, though the models are a little divergent. More on this Friday.