Increase in surf activity and potential next week
UNLESS YOU LIVE AT THE BEACH, PLEASE DON'T TRAVEL TO SURF
COVID-19 is changing the way we think about surfing. Travelling to the surf now means you're putting an unnecessary strain on the resources of small regional communities. So, please stay home. If you live near the beach and want to surf, please maintain a healthy spacing in the lineup, don't hang in the carpark, and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet. Above all, stay happy, healthy and look out for one another.
Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 19th February)
Best Days: Beginners Saturday and Sunday mornings, Monday morning, Tuesday morning, Wednesday onwards
Tiny yesterday morning ahead of a spike in E/SE swell but with onshore winds, peaking this morning but with those very average winds.
This week and weekend (Feb 20 - 23)
Any swell seen the last couple of days will be gone tomorrow and unfortunately the deepening low that was forecast by both ECMWF and GFS on Monday has now been effectively wiped off the charts.
Instead a weaker trough and onshore change will hardly generate any swell over 2ft for Clifton on Friday and with onshore winds.
The weekend doesn't look too enticing with an easing S/SW windswell Saturday from 1-1.5ft but with a light offshore wind, ideal for beginners. Background energy looks to keep the swell a similar size Sunday with morning offshores.
Moving into next week and we've got a slight upgrade in the groundswell due on Monday, with a strong but distant polar low currently positioned around Heard Island, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds in our far swell window.
This system will weaken while projecting east, helping to generate some mid-period swell energy, mixed in with the long-period and inconsistent groundswell energy.
We should see both fill in on Monday and provide good though sometimes inconsistent 2-3ft sets across Clifton and with favourable NW offshore winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes.
Longer term and we're looking at a more active period into the middle to end of next week as a strengthening node of the Long Wave Trough moves in from the west.
This will project back to back polar fronts through our swell window, generating larger and windier pulses of W/SW-SW swell. More on these developments Friday.