South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 4th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Raggedy large windy S swell Thurs with strong S’lies, plenty of size into Fri before easing
• Winds easing Fri
• Fun blend of S-S/SE swells this weekend with light offshore winds most of the day (may tend to light N-NE breezes in the a’noon)
• Looking quiet now next week with offshore winds and tiny surf

Recap

Fun blend of E and S swells yesterday under W’ly winds saw some 2-3ft surf with quality dependent on the state of local sand banks. We’re seeing fresh W-SW winds today, expected to tend more S/SW-S as a low winds up in the Tasman. Surf is small to start with, building in through the a’noon across the MNC to North Coast. 

Good sand still hard to find but a few fun peaks on the Sunny Coast beachies yesterday

This week (Jun 4-6)

We’ve got a complex low in the Tasman, deepened after interaction with a cold front, which is attaining maximum intensity today. A trough off the low is swinging northwards, accentuating a proximate fetch of strong to low end gale force S/SW-S winds up along the NSW Coast. A secondary low in the gyre is moving towards the South Island. With the Tasman Sea inflamed by these robust S’ly fetches we’ll see strong S’ly swells in the short term, improving in quality as size eases from the proximate fetch and better quality swell trains fill in from below and adjacent to the South Island. Conditions look to rapidly improve as high pressure moves over central/NENSW late this week. 

In the short run we’re still looking at vigorous surf from the S tomorrow, with a fresh/strong (possible low end gale force gusts) S’ly flow.  Most of the swell will be short range and very ragged with size in the 6-8ft range at S exposed breaks (bigger 8-10ft at S facing river bars), grading smaller 4-5ft into SEQLD S facing beaches and smaller into more sheltered points. Keep expectations low for wave quality but there should be some surfable options out of the wind.

Friday still sees improving conditions. High pressure rapidly moves NE with winds from the SW early tending S’ly then easing rapidly through the day and laying down to variable breezes in the a’noon, likely with a N’ly component. Plenty of size early in the 6ft+ range across NENSW S exposed breaks (bigger and still overloading S magnets), grading smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches. Consistency and size will soften gradually through the a’noon. Friday should have more surfable options.

This weekend (June 7-8)

The weekend is looking good. A synoptic W’ly flow should establish as high pressure retreats further north and fronts sweep across the SE of the country. These winds will veer around through W/NW to W and NW but conditions should remain offshore/groomed most of the day at S facing and most open beaches. Points will have devil wind patches causing unfavourable surface conditions.

Surf-wise better quality swell trains from below the South Island, mixed with sideband energy from the Tasman Sea retreating fetch should hold 3-5ft surf Sat morning at S facing beaches, smaller 3ft in SEQLD, softening a little through the day. 

Better quality, longer period S/SE swell fills in Sun, through the mid/late morning, offering up 4ft surf in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. 

Next week (Jun 9 onwards)

A low pressure system moves into the Tasman, through Bass Strait and then stalls or retrogrades on Mon into mid-week. 

The upshot of that is synoptic W’ly-NW’ly winds and easing swells.

Mon should have fun leftovers from the S/SE to 3ft and easing. 

By Tues and into Wed surf looks to become tiny- well below 2ft and more likely in the 1-1.5ft range. Possibly surfable on a log. 

Tiny again into Thurs.

Models are offering mixed messaging on the fate of the low but we may see a S swell late in the week as the low finally moves E and develops a fetch on the western flank, likely enhanced by a cold front and large high moving through the Bight (see below).

We’ll pencil in a new S swell through Fri, easing next weekend and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then!