South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 30th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mix of easing S/SE and slowly building but inconsistent E'ly swell Sat/Sun but marred by onshore SE-S/SE winds (lighter inshore early)
• Solid long period S'ly swell late Sat (MNC) and Sun (remainder NNSW and SEQLD), easing Mon though best on the points under S/SE winds
• Small E swell Tues/Wed with offshore winds developing Tues
• Front and low in Tasman brings as spike in S swell Wed PM (MNC), solid across the region Thurs, easing Fri- favouring NENSW for size
• More S swell medium term

Recap

Small to start yesterday after an initial pulse of S swell Wed a’noon eased off with S swells to 3ft across NENSW, tiny in SEQLD. Size built through the day with  solid 6ft+ surf at NENSW S facing spots and smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Conditions were clean under SW winds which tended light in the a’noon. There has been some small E swell underneath offering 3ft sets which is persisting into today. S swells are on the ease today with inconsistent 3-5ft surf in NENSW becoming slow while SEQLD is seeing a mix of S swells and E swell to 2-3ft. Early light W-SW winds are now tending S-SE.

This weekend (May 31 - Jun 1)

A few tweaks to the weekend f/cast, mostly due to local winds. We’ve currently got a deep polar low with two strong embedded fronts tracking NE into the lower Tasman. High pressure moves up over NSW with easing pressure gradients while a trough deepens off the QLD coast and drifts south over the weekend.

That trough will see deteriorating conditions through Sat with onshore SE winds and rain. We should see a window of cleaner conditions in the morning across NENSW and the Gold Coast before winds kick in, with only the sheltered points offering a clean wave. A mix of easing S swell and background E swell offers surf in the 3ft range - bigger and blown out at S facing beaches, smaller and cleaner at sheltered Points. 

Long period S swell should start to show across the MNC- North Coast late in the day but with onshore SE winds on offer it’s likely to be hard to utilise.

Winds will be similar Sun- lighter SW-S inshore early, tending S-S/SE as the trough of low pressure continues to move southwards parallel to the coast. Local winds are likely to have whipped up some short range S/SE-SE swell to 3ft, with longer period S swell filling in to 4-5ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Background E swell will hold some inconsistent 3ft sets. With all those different swell trains in the water there should be something rideable on offer, although the biggest S swell trains will be once again marred by S/SE winds. 

Next week (Jun 2 onwards)

Easing S swells into Mon with some early sets to 3-4ft dropping through the a’noon, mixed with short range SE and easing E’ly energy to 2-3ft. Tricky winds as the trough forms a small low and moves southwards. Likely offshore W-SW on the Sunshine Coast, E/SE-SE across the Gold Coast and Northern Rivers and NE from Coffs southwards. Caveat: winds could swing depending on the movement and positioning of the low, so keep tabs on local winds.

Models are suggesting small surf Tues with winds swinging offshore as the trough of low pressure moves south and forms a weak, closed low in the Central Tasman. Odds are reasonable though that we’ll see some small, workable E’ly swell through Tues from local winds feeding into the system. It’s not a strong fetch but it is well aimed and proximate so we should see some clean 2ft surf Tues- possibly with 3ft sets if the infeed ramps up a notch. Keep expectations low, but beachies are worth a look under offshore conditions with such a favourable swell direction.

Wed is a different story. We’ll see a front enter the Tasman, and merge with the weak surface low, with a long S-SW fetch developing through the Tasman and proximate to the NSW Coast (see below). Models are still offering divergent takes on the evolution of the system with GFS now much more bullish than EC. Regardless, we’ll see early W’ly winds swing fresh SW through S/SW later Wed, accompanied by a steep rise in new S swell to 3-5ft at S facing beaches, initially across the MNC later a’noon, possibly just reaching the Byron coast for a late session (not much daylight in the a’noon with the run down the Solstice). We’ll fine-tune size and timing on Mon.

Plenty of size into Thurs, although with such model divergence it’s hard to have confidence in the trend. GFS suggests a slow easing in the a’noon as a complex low moves through the Tasman, with EC suggesting a smaller peak and faster easing trend through Thurs as high pressure moves over the state. We should see at least 5-6ft of S swell across NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD Thurs morning, with some sort of easing trend in play through the a’noon. 

Low confidence for Fri into Sat as much depends on whether the low sticks around in the Tasman with a fetch near the South Island (GFS) or has exited the Tasman (EC). Under the GFS resolution we’ll see plenty of swell into Fri, easing Sat. 

EC suggests much smaller surf, with high pressure in the Tasman and northerly winds developing. 

We’ll see how it looks on Mon.

Medium term looks like a continuation of swells from the S with more frontal intrusion into the Tasman backed by a strong high moving through the Bight.

Check back Mon for the latest and until then, have a great weekend!