South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon 26th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small clean surf Tues
• Rapidly building S'ly swell Wed in NNSW (much smaller SE Qld, though fun with a residual E'ly swell)
• Very large S'ly tending S/SE swell in NNSW Thurs, smaller but solid in SE Qld and with a building E'ly swell too
• Solid mix of easing S/SE and slowly building but inconsistent E'ly swell Fri/Sat (easing Sun)
• Solid long period S'ly swell late Sat (MNC) and Sun (remainder NNSW NNSW), easing Mon though best on the points under S/SE winds
• Nothing signifcaint long term at this stage

Recap

An excellent weekend of waves with surf size performing better than model guidance suggested, building from 3-4ft to 4-5ft Saturday with a few bigger waves showing on Sunday, easing back to 3-4ft today. Conditions have been great with generally light winds.  

Next week (May 27 - 30)

We’ve got a really dynamic week of waves ahead.

To kick things off, Tuesday will see a further slight reduction in the E’ly swell from today, and clean conditions as freshening NW winds veer W’ly as a vigorous front approaches from the west. Open beaches should manage 2-3ft sets, it’ll be well worth a paddle. 

On Tuesday morning, a cold front will cross the Southern NSW coast, and a new low pressure system will then develop in the central/southern Tasman Sea during the day, strengthening overnight and stalling by Wednesday into a deep Tasman Low, a real beauty. 

We’ll see several different sources of swell from this system, most of which will overlap at some point so it’ll be hard to distinguish them all (and kinda pointless really, seeing how rapidly surf size will increase). But let’s take a look at a few of ‘em.

The first proper S/SW fetch off Tasmania’s East Coast will develop later in the afternoon, and extend north into NSW latitudes by the evening, creating a solid increase in S’ly swell for Wednesday.

I have a feeling that the wave models are undercooking surf size estimates for the morning session (2-3ft MNC south facing beaches at dawn); regardless we are looking at a step-ladder increase through the day and by the evening should be pushing 5-6ft+ at south swell magnets south of Byron. Expect a wide variation in size from beach to beach, owing to the steep swell direction.

Conditions look ideal with generally light variable winds in the north all day, tending moderate SW thru’ S/SW on the Mid North Coast.

SE Qld won’t pick up much size from this initial south swell, and it’ll arrive later too, however there should be enough residual E’ly swell to manage slow 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches. Certainly nothing as special as the last few days but enough to warrant a paddle. 

By late Wednesday, the Tasman Low will reach maximum strength (see below), which, along with a nice frontal slingshot around the low (albeit off-axis to the NSW coast), will generate an even larger pulse of S/SE swell for Thursday afternon, probably up to 8ft+ at south facing beaches (south of Byron) though again with a wide variation in size across the coast. Wave heights will probably be a little undersized early. 

Winds will swing more to a gusty S/SW through the day but a few locations could see morning W/SW thru’ SW winds. The regional points will pick up plenty of size and these winds will be ideal, but mileage will vary depending on the sand setup - large south swells often tend to push wide. 

SE Qld will pull in some energy from this swell, but again, there’ll be a wide range in wave heights from south facing beaches to sheltered points. South swell magnets could see 5-6ft sets but most beaches and semi-exposed points will probably come in smaller around 3ft+ (protected points will be smaller again).

However, we are also looking at a building easterly swell through the day too, generated by an impressive E’ly fetch to the NE of New Zealand right now - essentially the same fetch that generated the weekend’s E'ly swell, which has since retreated east and temporarily weakened, though is now restrengthening. Despite surf size being much smaller than that of the S/SE swell, and also a lot less consistent too, it should increase the chances of rideable waves at more sheltered spots. Lighter winds here should favour most spots. 

Winds will then remain light to moderate SW tending S’ly across most coasts on Friday as Thursday's large S/SE slowly eases. We could see a similar size range early as per late Thursday but expect the trend to be steadily downwards (say, 6-8ft sets south of Byron early, down to 4-6ft through the day).

Fortunately for SE Qld, this easing S/SE swell will be accompanied by an increase in E’ly swell that should push somewhere up into the 3-4ft+ range at open beaches. Again, set waves will be inconsistent but it’s shaping up to be a really nice day of waves across the regional points. 

This weekend (May 31 - Jun 1)

The Southern Ocean is very active at the moment, and we have a really nice long period south swell due to arrive on Saturday afternoon (lower MNC) and into Sunday (remaining NNSW coasts), generated by a broad, intense polar low passing underneath Tasmania on Thursday (see below).

Prior to its arrival, we are expecting the aforementioned long range E’ly swell to reach a peak on Saturday with inconsistent 3-5ft sets across exposed coasts. And Friday’s S/SE swell will still be easing across the region too, offering a similar size range south of the border.

Conditions look problematic for the open beaches though with a new ridge of high pressure freshening S/SE winds across the region. Early morning should allow for a period of lighter winds and clean conditions but by mid-late morning it’ll be best suited to semi-exposed points and sheltered southern ends.

Similar conditions will play out on Sunday as the E’ly swell slowly eases and the long period S’ly groundswell shows strongly with occasional 5-6ft+ sets at south swell magnets south of Byron. The usual S’ly swell caveat (wide variation in size etc) will be somewhat tempered by the concurrent E’ly swell, so there should be plenty of waves around. Expect fun surf along the semi-exposed SE Qld points with favourable winds and dual swells.

Next week (Jun 2 onwards)

Wave heights will trend down from all sources through Mondauy, and things thereafter looks much more quiet for the rest of the week, which may be very welcome after what’ll have been an extended run of strong pumping swells. There’s a small south swell due mid-late week but nothing worth getting too excited about right now.