South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 23rd May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Great weekend of strong E'ly swells and light winds, tending more NW-N on Sun
• Smaller Mon/Tues with good winds for the beachies (NW-N)
• Fun, inconsistent E'ly groundswell building Thurs/Fri
• Strong front and low in the Tasman next week with sizeable S'ly swell building NNSW Wed/peaking Thurs, slow easing Fri
• Favourable winds expected for this swell combo
• Reinforcing S swell expected next weekend with more S groundswell into first week of winter
• Small trade swell likely first week of winter

Recap

The trough line contracted southwards yesterday with areas north of Coffs seeing offshore winds and plenty of E swell in the 4-6ft range. Offshore winds are now extending through the entire region with size in the 6-8ft range on the MNC, grading smaller 4-5ft across the rest of NENSW and smaller 4ft in SEQLD. Good to great surf if you could find a sandbar handling the swell. 

Wind and sand not ideal but plenty of fun on the QLD points.

This weekend (May 24 - 25)

Phew- after a hectic week of La Niña influenced weather (for those south of the trough at least!) we should be on the other side of it this weekend as the trough/low continues to slide down the East Coast towards the Gippsland/Bass Strait coast. 

As it does, winds shift offshore W-NW to N while a broad fetch of E/NE-NE winds slowly contracts to the east. We’ll see plenty of residual swell from this low-carb nor-easter, with a slow easing trend over the weekend, more pronounced into next week. 

Expect mod W’ly winds Sat, tending more NW to N/NW in the a’noon, so widespread clean conditions early getting bumpy in the a’noon apart from backbeaches.  Size still in the 3-4ft range Sat, just softening a touch through the a’noon.

Similar winds for Sun although tending more N-NE in the a’noon, with 3-4ft surf holding from the E. We may see a bit of long range reinforcement from a fetch in the South Pacific with some inconsistent 3ft sets, not likely to stand out much against the prevailing swell trains.  

Next week (May 26 onwards)

Active week ahead next week with the first cold outbreak of the season expected as a major front and deep parent low push across the SE of the continent and into the Tasman Sea respectively. That will see a major blast of S swell next week which wave models appear to be underestimating at present.

That dominant S swell is likely to overshadow smaller, long range E/NE swell from a retreating E’ly dip/tropical low which now looks to reach peak intensity in Samoan longitudes. That extra travel distance will shave off size and consistency from swell decay and swells are not likely to show until later in the week, with Thurs into Fri seeing inconsistent 3-5ft sets.

Expect a leftover E swell Mon in the 3ft range with W/NW winds tending pre-frontal  N at mod/fresh paces. 

Windy day Tues as the cold front sweeps across the state. We’ll see fresh and gusty NW’ly winds, tending more W’ly through the a’noon. Just a trace of E swell in the water to 2ft or less.

By Wed, we’ll see a fresh S’ly swell on the build. A mix of directional S swell trains as a very broad fetch moves into the Tasman and SE of Tasmania. The European model has a very powerful low moving NE into the Tasman , with GFS a slightly weaker system. A conservative estimate would size building through the day across NENSW to at least 6ft of S swell at S exposed breaks with smaller surf to 2-3ft building in the a’noon across SEQLD S facing beaches. Don’t be surprised if we see an upgrade in size on Mon. SW winds are fresh and gusty Wed, easing and tending more S’ly through the day.

Still plenty of size Thurs from the S with winds SW tending S’ly to S/SE’ly in the a’noon as a dominant high moves E from the Bight.

S swell eases a notch through Fri but remains elevated, under current modelling.

Basically we are looking at a run of solid S swell from Wed-Fri with surf likely to remain in the 4-5ft range right through Fri and winds most suitable for regional points, sand supply permitting.

Follow-up fronts look to supply reinforcing S’ly energy into next weekend, likely with some size to it, although models are still divergent over the strength and track of the following fronts.

High pressure then occupies the Tasman with settled conditions, tending to SE winds. Some small E’ly tradeswell is also likely to build into the first week of winter.

More strong frontal activity under the continent and below 40S to the polar regions suggests S’ly groundswell pulses into the first week of winter underneath the trade swell.

We’ll investigate that further on Mon.

Until then, hope you dry out (on land), and have a great weekend!