Great weekend ahead with a cold outbreak next week bringing plenty of S swell
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 23rd May)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Great weekend of strong E'ly swells and light winds, tending more NW-N on Sun
- Smaller Mon/Tues with good winds for the beachies (NW-N)
- Fun, inconsistent E'ly groundswell building Thurs/Fri
- Strong front and low in the Tasman next week with sizeable S'ly swell building NNSW Wed/peaking Thurs, slow easing Fri
- Favourable winds expected for this swell combo
- Reinforcing S swell expected next weekend with more S groundswell into first week of winter
- Small trade swell likely first week of winter
Recap
The trough line contracted southwards yesterday with areas north of Coffs seeing offshore winds and plenty of E swell in the 4-6ft range. Offshore winds are now extending through the entire region with size in the 6-8ft range on the MNC, grading smaller 4-5ft across the rest of NENSW and smaller 4ft in SEQLD. Good to great surf if you could find a sandbar handling the swell.
Wind and sand not ideal but plenty of fun on the QLD points.
This weekend (May 24 - 25)
Phew- after a hectic week of La Niña influenced weather (for those south of the trough at least!) we should be on the other side of it this weekend as the trough/low continues to slide down the East Coast towards the Gippsland/Bass Strait coast.
As it does, winds shift offshore W-NW to N while a broad fetch of E/NE-NE winds slowly contracts to the east. We’ll see plenty of residual swell from this low-carb nor-easter, with a slow easing trend over the weekend, more pronounced into next week.
Expect mod W’ly winds Sat, tending more NW to N/NW in the a’noon, so widespread clean conditions early getting bumpy in the a’noon apart from backbeaches. Size still in the 3-4ft range Sat, just softening a touch through the a’noon.
Similar winds for Sun although tending more N-NE in the a’noon, with 3-4ft surf holding from the E. We may see a bit of long range reinforcement from a fetch in the South Pacific with some inconsistent 3ft sets, not likely to stand out much against the prevailing swell trains.
Next week (May 26 onwards)
Active week ahead next week with the first cold outbreak of the season expected as a major front and deep parent low push across the SE of the continent and into the Tasman Sea respectively. That will see a major blast of S swell next week which wave models appear to be underestimating at present.
That dominant S swell is likely to overshadow smaller, long range E/NE swell from a retreating E’ly dip/tropical low which now looks to reach peak intensity in Samoan longitudes. That extra travel distance will shave off size and consistency from swell decay and swells are not likely to show until later in the week, with Thurs into Fri seeing inconsistent 3-5ft sets.
Expect a leftover E swell Mon in the 3ft range with W/NW winds tending pre-frontal N at mod/fresh paces.
Windy day Tues as the cold front sweeps across the state. We’ll see fresh and gusty NW’ly winds, tending more W’ly through the a’noon. Just a trace of E swell in the water to 2ft or less.
By Wed, we’ll see a fresh S’ly swell on the build. A mix of directional S swell trains as a very broad fetch moves into the Tasman and SE of Tasmania. The European model has a very powerful low moving NE into the Tasman , with GFS a slightly weaker system. A conservative estimate would size building through the day across NENSW to at least 6ft of S swell at S exposed breaks with smaller surf to 2-3ft building in the a’noon across SEQLD S facing beaches. Don’t be surprised if we see an upgrade in size on Mon. SW winds are fresh and gusty Wed, easing and tending more S’ly through the day.
Still plenty of size Thurs from the S with winds SW tending S’ly to S/SE’ly in the a’noon as a dominant high moves E from the Bight.
S swell eases a notch through Fri but remains elevated, under current modelling.
Basically we are looking at a run of solid S swell from Wed-Fri with surf likely to remain in the 4-5ft range right through Fri and winds most suitable for regional points, sand supply permitting.
Follow-up fronts look to supply reinforcing S’ly energy into next weekend, likely with some size to it, although models are still divergent over the strength and track of the following fronts.
High pressure then occupies the Tasman with settled conditions, tending to SE winds. Some small E’ly tradeswell is also likely to build into the first week of winter.
More strong frontal activity under the continent and below 40S to the polar regions suggests S’ly groundswell pulses into the first week of winter underneath the trade swell.
We’ll investigate that further on Mon.
Until then, hope you dry out (on land), and have a great weekend!
Comments
That Samoan fetch is a long way away. Reckon we’ll see it that big (the upper size you’re saying) for late next week from that fetch?
I'm more biased towards the lower end, other forecasters here prefer the upper end- will observe over the weekend and fine-tune call on Mon.
Anyone on the ground on the Coffs coast able to give a report on whether people are out surfing or not yet? Water quality I guess the main worry? State titles there this week from Tuesday.
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Yes there are People Surfing.
I am a subscriber chief just wanted a ground report. Will have a look at the cams.
I surfed LP for the first time in close to 2 years today, filthy water, sand is pretty bad, wasn't too crowded though.
Had a look around the traps and everywhere I saw looked pretty poor, nice long lines of east swell coming in but too many holes in the banks.
Hopefully some of that sediment from down south washes it's way up here
Ok - so very minimal to no rain all week, blue bird skies and open stretches brown as with heaps debris - more so than when it was raining. Can’t work it out.
Felt like it was clearing up yesterday- gone dirty again today.
These big new moon tides should lead to a marked improvement over the next 3 days.
Hope so - couldn’t see my feet this morning, strange leaf litter around too.
fuck. 2 days running the wind has been offshore and i've waited for the tide to run out to help my fave beachie, and both days as soon as i paddled out it went north east. fuck
Fool me once shame on me, fool me twice…
hearing you mate, i had kids sport and missed it too.
the tweed coast "all day offshore" kicked in early today
Damn. After the record rain, winter feels like it's arrived all at once.
That's three bad seasons for surf in a row! Will winter disappoint?
Welcome Spring, Winter cancelled this year. Full hazy, light Seabreeze, hot Spring day. Fun run of waves, Friday around low the pick of it.
Couple of all time sessions last 2 days lots of lads in the doghouse from Friday Saturday sessions haha
We have swell here, (lower MNC) however all the beaches are closed due to biohazard. Wood and livestock all over the place. I really feel for all of those that have lost all their livestock and everything else.
Yep. No shortage of swell and offshore conditions down here, but I ain't going in that water. Rough time for all the farmers and people in low lying areas. Been insanely jealous watching the sunny coast cams. Reminds me a lot of the last big black noreaster which was 8 or 9 years ago, with the insane run of pumping beachies on the backside of that event.
Banks still aren't great in most spots
Missed most of Thursday Friday sessions except for quick hour before work, made up for it yesterday and today.
Absolutely cooked now.
Geez it would be nice to have runs like this more often!!!
great coupla days , so much fun ,
Yep, some awesome waves this weekend. Very grateful I was able to get a fair test of my new board too!
Bit of a downgrade on that south swell, which I'm all for
imagine if alfred had not come. the last few weeks would have been the most all time run of surf had their been sand on the points and decent beachie banks.
Yeh my thoughts exactly man! Would have been an insane may run of swell.
Pumping! Tweed beaches are still really solid on dark.
Big and clean all day and not many takers.
K Vaast putting on a clinic on some square ones.
3-4ft on the report and forecast was a bit light on.
Stronger and longer than expected here too.
hahaha on the Spring vibes Sprout- I sniffed the air this morning too and did a double-take.
Full spring smells in the air.
Surf definitely bigger on the sets today, albeit much slower.
Must have been an intensification in the fetch leading into the trough, most likely in the New Cal region judging from swell direction and time between sets.
Copy that.
We had a solid pulse through the morning that peaked around lunch / low when for about an hour there was barely a break between sets and plenty in each. Had some good hold downs!
Rest of the day had longer breaks (10-15mins).
Most keen beans went up to Cooly, so no crew and pits everywhere. As good a full day of conditions as we get here. . Great day!
Wish I could surf this morning. Hopefully the wind isn’t too hectic tomoz.
Anyone brave a surf on the MNC? I went out where the water looked clear but tasted a bit chemmy, a bit foamy but doable, I think. There was a million dolphins too, most had fucked up fins which was strange to me. Waves were really bad.
Times like this I dream of rock shelves and reefs with minimal tidal swings.
Pumping locally, strong but inconsistent 5ft+ sets yesterday. Water a bit off but not as bad as post Alfred.