South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed 19th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large onshore surf MNC Thurs, improving Fri as winds become light
• Large surf on the Northern Rivers Thurs/Fri (smaller but still solid SE Qld), clean on the points with good winds
• Great weekend of strong E'ly swells and light winds
• Smaller Mon/Tues with good winds for the beachies (NW)
• Solid though very inconsistent E'ly groundswell building Wed, peaking Thurs/Fri
• Sizeable S'ly swell building NNSW late Wed/peaking Thurs, easing Fri
• Favourable winds expected for this swell combo

Recap

Building SE swells have generated great waves across the points (those that have reclaimed their sand, anyway), reaching 6-8ft across Northern NSW but smaller to 4-5ft across SE Qld. Winds have been ideal for the points north from Yamba under a mainly S’ly flow, but we’ve seen poor conditions from Yamba south under heavy rain and fresh to strong onshore winds. 

Superbank starting to show form again

This week (May 22 - 23)

Fresh easterly winds across Coffs Harbour and light variable winds throughout Yamba (oscillating between westerly and easterly) means the axis of the trough is meandering in the vicinity of the Clarence Coast right now. 

The trough will slowly turn south on Thursday, and then hasten its southerly track during the day, with the axis expected south of Coffs by Thursday night and Forster by Friday morning.

This timing is important because it will dictate the onset of favourable conditions across the Mid North Coast - though water quality is expected to remain very suspect for quite a few days thanks to the considerable rainfall totals. So if you’re in this region please steer clear of rivers, creeks and other waterways. 

The current synoptic set up is akin to a mid-strength black nor’easter, with an impressive fetch stretching all the way from Far Southern NSW to Fiji and Tonga. A new E’ly dip will become embedded in the trough line near New Caledonia on Friday but I’ll discuss this a bit further down.

As for size, we may see a touch more energy across exposed SE Qld coasts (say, 4-6ft) but surf size will generally be smaller running along the regional points. Northern NSW will hold steady in the 6-8ft range. Friday should remain similar. 

Local winds should remain light offshore both days north from Yamba thru’ to the Sunshine Coast. So, expect almost a carbon copy of today for the rest of the week. 

Thursday looks problematic along the Mid North Coast with onshores persisting for most of Thursday (though variable winds slowly extending from the north at some point, probably later). Light variable winds tending offshore are expected Friday, though without the presence of a stiff offshore to iron out the bumps, it will take a few hours for things to clean up.

This weekend (May 24 - 25)

The good news about the low-carb nor’easter is that the long fetch length means we’ll see only a slow decline in surf size once the swell window eventually quietens down.

And at this stage the fetch will remain active in the central/northern Tasman Sea swell window through Saturday, so the whole weekend will be flush with strong surf. 

Even better - winds will remain light and variable both days under a weak ridge of high pressure. 

SE Qld should meander in the 4-5ft range both days, with bigger 5-6ft sets across Northern NSW. Sunday could also see a minor reinforcement of E’ly swell from the aforementioned E’ly dip developing on Friday up near New Caledonia, though no major size increase is expected.

Next week (May 26 onwards)

The weekend's swell source will continue to slowly ease into next week, however we have some new swell on the way from the E’ly dip near New Caledonia. 

This system looks magical on paper. The dip is expected to track slowly to the east - not always a good sign for our prospects - but it’ll broaden and intensify as a large high east of New Zealand tightens the squeeze to its north (see below), becoming almost stationary south-east from Fiji for a day or two.

The travel distance from this system to the coast is much longer so we’ll see a smaller comparative size at the coast, however expectations are for an initial period of small background energy in the 3-4ft range Monday and Tuesday (clean with W/NW tending NW winds), before surf size builds slowly through Wednesday and peaks Thurs/Fri out of the E/NE. At its height we should be seeing solid 5-6ft+ sets across exposed coasts, though it will be quite inconsistent. 

But that’s not the only swell source for next week. 

A powerful Southern Ocean low and front will push across the SE corner of the country on Monday (see early stages above, in the Bight), and a broad fetch of SW tending S/SW winds across the south-western Tasman Sea will concurrently generate a series of large southerly swells for Northern NSW (smaller in SE Qld). Surf size should come up quickly on Wednesday afternoon (Mid North Coast), peak later Thursday and then ease through Friday. 

At this stage the fronts are expected to track reasonably quickly into the Tasman Sea and therefore their influence on local winds may be only brief. As such the middle to latter part of next week is shaping up for an impressive, sizeable swell combo from the south and east with favourable winds to boot.

More on that in Friday's update.