Days of swell and offshore winds now on the menu for next week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 16th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small E’ly swells and light winds Sat
  • Lighter S’ly winds now expected Sun with some S groundswell in the water across NENSW and small E swells in SEQLD
  • Low pressure trough developing in Tasman next week with building SE swells Mon across the MNC
  • Widespread pumping SE-E/SE swells Tues and Wed with offshore winds (maybe S’ly on the MNC)
  • Easing but still sizey Thurs with offshore winds
  • Spike in short range S swell likely Sat
  • Dynamic pattern persists -check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

E’ly swells have kept up in the 3-4ft range through yesterday, with variable winds around a low pressure trough (mostly SW-S, then tending W’ly late in the day). Winds have tended more offshore today as the low pressure trough moves south. E swells are hanging in there today with an inconsistent 3ft signal (occ. 4ft set). Much more dynamic outlook ahead.

Banks still iffy but at least it's clean

This weekend (May17-18)

A few tweaks to the weekend f/cast. The low pressure trough moves away Sat and leaves a weak, troughy area with morning offshores and light/variable breezes through the day, expect winds from around the compass in rain areas but with speeds generally light there should be all day surfing conditions on hand. E swell is on the way out but there should be some leftover 2-3ft surf for the morning with the occ. bigger set still a possibility, easing a notch through the day. 

Sunday now looks a little more benign with the expected S’ly flow not as strong for most of the region. We’ll still see S’lies on the MNC freshen through the day as the new high pressure ridge builds in and a trough forms in this area but for the rest of the region winds should only reach mod paces through the day. Lighter W-SW winds are on hand for the early tending S’ly at strengths described above. Small remnant E swells in the 2ft range with an occ. 3ft set (very occ!) are on hand along with some S swell generated by multiple fetches active SW of Tasmania around a deep, slow moving polar low. Most of this swell is headed up the pipe for South Pacific targets but with long periods we may see some 3ft sets show across NENSW S swell magnets and S exposed breaks. Generally speaking S swells from this position rarely show in SEQLD but there may be some 2ft sets around at S facing beaches in the a’noon.

Next week (May 19 onwards)

We’ve got good model agreement now that through Mon we’ll see a deep trough develop from the Coral Sea down to a terminus somewhere on the MNC to lower North Coast with good odds we will see a surface low develop at that terminus. Areas to the south of that trough/low will see strong S/SE-SE winds develop, with those winds extending into a powerful fetch through the Central Tasman. Areas to the north should maintain a light offshore outflow from the trough/low. At present it looks like Coffs Harbour will be the dividing line between the sweet spot and the onshore flow.

If this holds true (we could still get a shift in the position of the trough/low) we’ll see some great days of surf and offshore winds for most of the region next week. 

Mon is likely to see building swells in NENSW, likely starting in the 2-3ft range and building to 4ft, just tickling the border regions in the late a’noon. 

Tues and Wed look good to great for most of the region, as the fetch draws out and solid SE-E/SE swells fill in. Expect Tues to be in the 4-6ft range (smaller 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast) with offshore winds for most of the region, up a notch into Wed. The MNC is likely to see even bigger surf with the fetch more directly aimed up at that region- in the 6ft+ range Tues, 6-8ft Wed.

Models suggest the trough/low complex will move south and even SW towards the south coast later next week- which would see the winds shift SW through Thurs across the MNC, more W/NW into SEQLD. and then wash out to light/variable breezes Fri morning before stiff S’lies return late in the day.

Swells will ease slowly as the fetch into the low devolves into a broad but weakening infeed. 

Still lots of size on Thurs in the 4-5ft range, possibly smaller Fri from that source, with potential for a spike in new S swell Sat as the return flow on the low builds a S’ly fetch along the  NSW coast (see below). 

Lots of water to flow under the bridge before we get there, so expect revisions when we return on Mon.

Model runs have also toyed with the idea of more low pressure development in the Coral Sea or Tasman, although latest runs have back off on that possibility. 

We’ll see how it looks when we come back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 16 May 2025 at 11:35am

Punched well above it's weigh this morning on the open beaches.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Friday, 16 May 2025 at 4:37pm

Had an unreal surf this arvo up here on the SC.

vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess Friday, 16 May 2025 at 5:53pm

Easterly swell continues on the wide Greenmount bank into Coolangatta at consistent 3-4+ feet range. Best on the top of the tide as wide sets had enough push to make into the inside section of Greenmount. Super smooth water surface compared to the bumpy last couple of days. Sand is slowly filling inside Rainbow Bay. Snapper Rocks has received a stack of sand via sand bypass. Super crowded with moderate reverse current which makes it extremely dangerous with drop-ins and run overs. Gold Coast Council has to something about the selfish motorised foils going through crowded surf breaks with no regard for other paddle surfers safety. They get hundreds of waves out wide so there is no need to go through surf breaks.

swellsam's picture
swellsam's picture
swellsam Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 12:59am

i surfed greenmount into spot x today, its pretty shocking the sand still. its like little punchy wedgy a frames that you think are gonna turn into nice ones but just get fat on the inside. let the sweep take me down into kirra. the sand there is actually very nice. every now and then that 11 second east swell would dish out a good 4 foot set down kirra and youd get some perfect ones on the wider sets. man i really need greenmount into cooly stretch back asap! thats my favourite wave on the goldy stretch that alfred has just put to absolute shame

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 16 May 2025 at 8:26pm

This wet signal is truly incredible.

Smal low formed in the trough line yesterday and then moved south and offshore, dragging the rain with it.
Sunshine this morning, until lunch-time.

By a'noon the coastal trough just reset as if nothing had happened and just sits there for days more.

That coastal trough and associated rain has been a semi-permanent feature all autumn- I doubt there has been a single week it hasn't been there.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 16 May 2025 at 9:40pm

Decent flash flooding in Byron this evening.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Friday, 16 May 2025 at 10:05pm

Stoked we missed out on the rain up here on the SC today. Was actually quite a nice day. Not too much wind either.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 16 May 2025 at 10:11pm

It was a nice day here too.
Rain started around dark or after that caused Byron flooding.

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 10:06am

sdw- 1 day in arow :(

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 4:01pm

What a day of contrasts. Dawn was average with gurgle and wobble and no real beachies liking the low-mid tide. Late morning on the high, rain clouds part sun comes out and the SW kicks making clean offshore 3-4ft kegs on the open beaches. Stocked to finally see Autumn start to kick.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 4:25pm

Great morning! Glassy high tide peaks, 3'+ and only a few on it. Surfed out tonight

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 4:30pm

Surfed a B grade point.

+
Clean, good shape, a little bit of push, 2ft+, no crowd, sun was out

-
Slow, chocolate brown water (where're me feet??), 2ft+

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 7:11pm

Good patch of waves for an hour or so early arvo. Pretty grateful to get that on top of yesterday’s good waves.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 6:19am

I admire your optimism Don but autumn is done.

What we've had instead of an autumn is a profound wet signal/monsoonal pattern which barely shows signs of breaking down as we head through the end of the month and the start of winter.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 7:20am

Well we can’t say we weren’t warned. I think it’s interesting to note how wet it’s been despite only a weak La Niña and neutral IOD. The next proper La Niña could be a real doozy around these parts given the notable shift poleward in seasonal air pressure belts, particularly over the last decade.

When I was out in the water yesterday it didn’t really feel like an autumn day. It felt more like one of those summer days after the influence of a trough has passed, the wind is slack and the atmosphere feels like it’s rained itself out for the time being.

Spatchcock's picture
Spatchcock's picture
Spatchcock Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 6:58am

Seems pretty concerning as these changes to climate become more and more pronounced.
The sea surface temps have been crazy for the year. Starting to wonder what it will look like in another 5 let alone 10 years

nextswell's picture
nextswell's picture
nextswell Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 7:12am

Appears some conflict between models with that ECL forming during the week. Forecast winds a couple of days ago were all S to SW, now looking some periods of easterlies depend on location.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 7:14am

is it just me or has there been way more east swells the last 5 years or so than normal or what i thought was normal.......what happened to the se swells........and peaky se swells ......the east swells seem to last for weeks which has fu the banks on the beaches here...or am i dreaming

swellsam's picture
swellsam's picture
swellsam Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 11:49am

Was getting so keen for next week... looks pretty shit now

juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 1:43pm

I've surfed 6 times in the last 6 days for a 2025 record. It's been mixed quality across the days but it's something to be grateful for. I surfed a variety of locations (point, beachies) and managed to find a couple of lumps of sand which were fun. Massive gutters which look to be a feature coming into shark season :( Good vibes with the weekday crowd.

Fingers crossed we dry out soon.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 4:06pm

Late morning saw solid 3-4ft sets out of the south along the Tweed Coast. Wasn't great but there was some serious push in the swell.

andy-mac's picture
andy-mac's picture
andy-mac Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 4:21pm

Offshore winds have been taken off the menu.... sigh.
:(

nextswell's picture
nextswell's picture
nextswell Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 5:38pm

Yep. First time that I can remember a forecast a couple of days out was so wrong. We were looking Good on Friday. Mind you the Bom was forecasting up to 50mm rain with s/sw winds. That combo appeared on the nose. Now up to 100mm a day for Tuesday and Wednesday. Coffs has recoreded 17 rain days straight. Looks like we’re in for another wk

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 6:28pm

Yep. forecast has fallen apart.

The low pressure trough/potential low has devolved back into a coastal trough with moist, onshore infeed.

Sigh.
Hope tomorrow brings better news.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Monday, 19 May 2025 at 9:33am

Hmmm, willyweather has the winds looking nice for the mornings all week, i hope its right!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 19 May 2025 at 9:44am

If north of the trough, which looks to sit just on or immediately south of Coffs. Anything south of it will be a write-off.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Monday, 19 May 2025 at 9:55am

Awesome news Craig (not for you mid nth coasters though), ill pencil in a few mornings off work once the forecaster notes drop later.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Monday, 19 May 2025 at 11:01am

Latest GFS run has come back towards a bit of trough blockage over the weekend.