South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 16th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E’ly swells and light winds Sat
• Lighter S’ly winds now expected Sun with some S groundswell in the water across NENSW and small E swells in SEQLD
• Low pressure trough developing in Tasman next week with building SE swells Mon across the MNC
• Widespread pumping SE-E/SE swells Tues and Wed with offshore winds (maybe S’ly on the MNC)
• Easing but still sizey Thurs with offshore winds
• Spike in short range S swell likely Sat
• Dynamic pattern persists -check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

E’ly swells have kept up in the 3-4ft range through yesterday, with variable winds around a low pressure trough (mostly SW-S, then tending W’ly late in the day). Winds have tended more offshore today as the low pressure trough moves south. E swells are hanging in there today with an inconsistent 3ft signal (occ. 4ft set). Much more dynamic outlook ahead.

Banks still iffy but at least it's clean

This weekend (May17-18)

A few tweaks to the weekend f/cast. The low pressure trough moves away Sat and leaves a weak, troughy area with morning offshores and light/variable breezes through the day, expect winds from around the compass in rain areas but with speeds generally light there should be all day surfing conditions on hand. E swell is on the way out but there should be some leftover 2-3ft surf for the morning with the occ. bigger set still a possibility, easing a notch through the day. 

Sunday now looks a little more benign with the expected S’ly flow not as strong for most of the region. We’ll still see S’lies on the MNC freshen through the day as the new high pressure ridge builds in and a trough forms in this area but for the rest of the region winds should only reach mod paces through the day. Lighter W-SW winds are on hand for the early tending S’ly at strengths described above. Small remnant E swells in the 2ft range with an occ. 3ft set (very occ!) are on hand along with some S swell generated by multiple fetches active SW of Tasmania around a deep, slow moving polar low. Most of this swell is headed up the pipe for South Pacific targets but with long periods we may see some 3ft sets show across NENSW S swell magnets and S exposed breaks. Generally speaking S swells from this position rarely show in SEQLD but there may be some 2ft sets around at S facing beaches in the a’noon.

Next week (May 19 onwards)

We’ve got good model agreement now that through Mon we’ll see a deep trough develop from the Coral Sea down to a terminus somewhere on the MNC to lower North Coast with good odds we will see a surface low develop at that terminus. Areas to the south of that trough/low will see strong S/SE-SE winds develop, with those winds extending into a powerful fetch through the Central Tasman. Areas to the north should maintain a light offshore outflow from the trough/low. At present it looks like Coffs Harbour will be the dividing line between the sweet spot and the onshore flow.

If this holds true (we could still get a shift in the position of the trough/low) we’ll see some great days of surf and offshore winds for most of the region next week. 

Mon is likely to see building swells in NENSW, likely starting in the 2-3ft range and building to 4ft, just tickling the border regions in the late a’noon. 

Tues and Wed look good to great for most of the region, as the fetch draws out and solid SE-E/SE swells fill in. Expect Tues to be in the 4-6ft range (smaller 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast) with offshore winds for most of the region, up a notch into Wed. The MNC is likely to see even bigger surf with the fetch more directly aimed up at that region- in the 6ft+ range Tues, 6-8ft Wed.

Models suggest the trough/low complex will move south and even SW towards the south coast later next week- which would see the winds shift SW through Thurs across the MNC, more W/NW into SEQLD. and then wash out to light/variable breezes Fri morning before stiff S’lies return late in the day.

Swells will ease slowly as the fetch into the low devolves into a broad but weakening infeed. 

Still lots of size on Thurs in the 4-5ft range, possibly smaller Fri from that source, with potential for a spike in new S swell Sat as the return flow on the low builds a S’ly fetch along the  NSW coast (see below). 

Lots of water to flow under the bridge before we get there, so expect revisions when we return on Mon.

Model runs have also toyed with the idea of more low pressure development in the Coral Sea or Tasman, although latest runs have back off on that possibility. 

We’ll see how it looks when we come back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!