South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 14th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another small kick in E swell expected Thurs/holding Fri under light winds (will be variable depending on small low pressure trough forming- see notes)
• Small E’ly swells and light winds Sat
• Strong S-SE surge expected Sun with building short range S-SE swells
• Mix of S-SE swells into early next week
• Dynamic outlook with potential low pressure in the Tasman and sizey swells -check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Chunky E’ly trade swells have been holding since the last f/cast notes with yesterday seeing size in the 4ft+ range, down a notch today into the 3-4ft range. Clean to clean-ish conditions under early light winds before SE winds clocked in, sometimes strong around squalls. Generally speaking conditions have favoured the Gold Coast points for size and quality. 

Generally light winds but Points still the cleanest

This week (May 14-16)

Weak pressure gradients are now over NSW, as the synoptic pattern takes a pause in between dominant high pressure systems. A coastal trough linked to tropical moisture continues the La Niña wet signal this week, now looking to form a small closed low off the MNC tomorrow before being captured by a cold front this weekend. We’ll see unstable, variable winds through the rest of this week before the front and next dominant high bring a new strong S-SE surge over the weekend. Polar lows tied to the front bring some longer period S swell during this period. Next week still looks dynamic with potential for a deep trough or low in the Tasman, although we are going to have to play it day by day due to poor model to model and run to run consistency. Read on details. 

In the short run we’ll see light winds again tomorrow morning, likely W through W/SW in far Northern NSW to SEQLD. The trough does look to form a small circulation somewhere on the MNC so we may see S-SE winds somewhere south of Coffs, although the whole trough line is unstable so variable winds anywhere along it are possible. 

Most models suggest a light SE flow at some point tomorrow. As noted Mon, Thurs should see a last little boost from the E with some 3 occ. 4ft sets.

Tricky winds for Fri depending on how the small trough of low pressure evolves. Likely we’ll see some N’ly component develop in SEQLD after early morning W-W/NW winds, and more W-SW winds in NENSW. Winds should stay light across the board though so pencil in clean conditions for the early with fun-sized E swell to 2-3ft, becoming a bit slow and sluggish through the day.

This weekend (May17-18)

Bit more clarity on the timing of the next dynamic event to unfold, but expect further revisions on Fri.

Basically Sat now looks more benign with light winds through the morning at least as the small trough of low pressure moves away, a strong front weakens as it approaches the Tasman and a dominant high in the Bight moves a little more slowly. Light morning W-SW breezes should tend light/mod S through S/SE during the day, more N-NE in SEQLD. Last day of clean, fun E swell to 2 occ. 3ft so get it before it’s gone. 

Sunday sees the start of a dynamic event now. The dominant high ridges in, remnants of the cold front join the trough of low pressure with a developing fresh S/SW-S flow which should build through the late morning across the North Cost, reaching SEQLD later in the day. Small surf for most of the day with the MNC seeing a late kick in new S swell to 4-5ft.

Next week (May 19 onwards)

Expect lots of revisions on Fri as we get clarity on the upcoming week. 

The gist of it is a deep trough forming in the Tasman, potentially a surface low or variant of ECL. 

Currently the European model is most bullish on this outcome, with the trough/low deepening o/night Sun into Mon and gales aimed at the NSW Central Coast through Mon. This would see a wild stormy day Mon with L-XL surf developing Mon south of the low and remaining elevated with onshore winds Tues before easing Wed into Thurs with improving winds. There’d be a sweet spot just north of the low centre with large surf and offshore winds. Further north, likely north of Byron we’d expect smaller E/SE-SE swells to develop through Mon/Tues before easing. 

GFS has a much more subdued outlook with the trough deepening but moving away rapidly through the Tasman before setting up shop near the North Island and aiming up a fetch of E’ly winds towards the Eastern seaboard. 

Under that scenario we’d see the initial blast of S swell Mon holding or increasing Tues as high pressure moves over Southern NSW and strong S-SE winds blow across the sub-tropics. A couple of small clean days then a nice uptick in E’ly swell late next week, depending on how the trough/low behaves. 

So much model divergence leads to low confidence in outcomes so pencil in a wide range of possible outcomes. Might need to wax up a 7’6” or you might be riding small fun beachies on a short board. 

We’ll also see some fun longer period S swell in the mix Mon, easing Tues, which we’ll discuss on Fri depending on what fires up in the Tasman.

We’ll come back Fri and see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!