South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 12th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong E'ly swell combo easing slowly from Tues onwards
• SE winds slowly easing through Tues/Wed with periods of morning land breeze developing
• Another small kick in E swell expected Thurs/holding Fri under light winds
• Small E’ly swells and light winds Sat
• Strong S-SE surge expected Sun with building short range S-SE swells
• Mix of S-SE swells into early next week
• Dynamic outlook with potential low pressure in the Tasman and sizey swells -check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Plenty of swell energy from the SE through E this weekend although strong SE winds drastically reduced the number of surfable options. Size ranged in the 3-5ft range Sat, slightly smaller into the more protected points with more size on Sun, although winds did have more of an E’ly component. Still plenty of size out of the E today- in the 4-5ft range with bigger sets, smaller into the more sheltered inner Points. Winds continue to be onshore across most of the region from the SE-E, with protected points even a bit raggedy although offering the cleanest conditions. 

Still not back to it's best but improving conditions at the Superbank provided fun waves

This week (May 12-16)

The synoptic situation has been sluggish with a large high (1030hPa) still sitting in the Tasman still maintaining a firm ridge up the sub-tropical coast with a weaker pressure gradient through temperate NSW. A broad trade fetch on steroids is now slowly breaking down through the Coral, Tasman and South Pacific with a tropical low whizzing away to the SE.  Weak supporting high pressure does drift into the Tasman this week with multiple coastal trough lines suggesting instability and variable winds before a weak S’ly change Thurs. The recent pattern of very strong highs moving through the Bight into the Tasman then resets over the weekend with a high likelihood of another surge of S-SE swell during this period. The southern swell window remains fairly suppressed by high pressure but there are good signs a stronger polar low later this week will send a useful long period S swell up the pipe over the weekend.

In the short run, not much change to conditions with a mod/fresh SE flow in SEQLD, slowly easing in strength as you head south from the border. We should see a period of land breezes in NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast before the sou-easter kicks up again. Still plenty of strong E-E/SE swell to 4ft with the occ. bigger set. There will be a slight easing trend though the a’noon, more noticeable into Wed. 

That E’ly swell will be on the decline through Wed as the Tasman Sea/Coral Sea fetch has been breaking up and the tropical low in the South Pacific skipped away to the SE quickly. As a result we’ll see swells easing to 3 occ. 4ft, and just slowly backing down through the day. Similar winds to Tues again with lighter winds in NENSW (morning offshores and SE breezes) slightly stronger in SEQLD although the Southern Gold Coast should expect morning W-SW breezes. 

Thurs looks like even lighter winds as a coastal trough moves north and brings a shallow S’ly tending S/SE change to temperate NSW, whilst a shallow, light S-SE flow remains embedded across the sub-tropics. Light land breezes should be widespread across the region before winds shift light/mod S’ly through the day. Wave models are suggesting a brief bump back up in size Thurs- which looks hard to justify from current synoptics although an intensification of the tropical low before it moved away is the likely source. There are so many active E’ly fetches though thats it’s worth taking it at face value with E’ly swells (slightly longer period, so better quality) showing to 3ft with an occ. bigger 4ft set. 

Similar size into Fri morning (expect slow periods due to the travel distance of the swell) with another day of favourable winds. Light morning offshores and a’noon light S’ly winds. If you can find a decent sand bank there should be plenty of fun waves Thurs and Fri. 

This weekend (May17-18)

Light winds for Sat just in advance of another major high pressure S-SE surge. Best to get in before the next round of strong S-SE winds with light morning land breezes and a’noon S’lies. Residual E’ly swells should hold 3ft sets across the region, albeit with slow periods.

We’ll review the timing through the week, but under current modelling we’ll see the next strong S’ly surge develop Sun as the next big high moving through the Bight rapidly builds a strong ridge up the eastern seaboard. That would see a brief period of lighter SW winds inshore early before S’lies kicked up to fresh/strong paces through the day, bringing a new spike in mostly short range S swell into the 4ft range, smaller into SEQLD and into protected points. 

Next week (May 19 onwards)

Early next week looks like another atypical autumn week with SE winds and a mix of mostly S-SE swells to 3-5ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, and building SE swells to 3-4ft in SEQLD. We’ll pencil that it for now and see how it looks Wed.

Model divergence then kicks in with GFS suggesting the high moves NE into the Tasman, bringing calm, light winds for temperate NSW, with an easing ridge for the sub-tropics. 

EC has a more bullish outlook with another massive high moving in from the Bight and short range feature (trough or low pressure) building in the Tasman with a powerful and broad S then SE-E fetch developing through the Tasman. Under this scenario we’re looking at a very sizey event into mid next week, possibly a sustained week of solid surf although winds will be a problem apart from the QLD points. 

With such a dynamic outlook and model divergence there’s low confidence in specifics this far out. 

The current troughiness does lend weight though to the more bullish outlook. 

We’ll come back Wed and see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!