Winds finally easing this week with fun E swells hanging in there

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 12th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Strong E'ly swell combo easing slowly from Tues onwards
  • SE winds slowly easing through Tues/Wed with periods of morning land breeze developing
  • Another small kick in E swell expected Thurs/holding Fri under light winds
  • Small E’ly swells and light winds Sat
  • Strong S-SE surge expected Sun with building short range S-SE swells
  • Mix of S-SE swells into early next week
  • Dynamic outlook with potential low pressure in the Tasman and sizey swells -check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Plenty of swell energy from the SE through E this weekend although strong SE winds drastically reduced the number of surfable options. Size ranged in the 3-5ft range Sat, slightly smaller into the more protected points with more size on Sun, although winds did have more of an E’ly component. Still plenty of size out of the E today- in the 4-5ft range with bigger sets, smaller into the more sheltered inner Points. Winds continue to be onshore across most of the region from the SE-E, with protected points even a bit raggedy although offering the cleanest conditions. 

Still not back to it's best but improving conditions at the Superbank provided fun waves

This week (May 12-16)

The synoptic situation has been sluggish with a large high (1030hPa) still sitting in the Tasman still maintaining a firm ridge up the sub-tropical coast with a weaker pressure gradient through temperate NSW. A broad trade fetch on steroids is now slowly breaking down through the Coral, Tasman and South Pacific with a tropical low whizzing away to the SE.  Weak supporting high pressure does drift into the Tasman this week with multiple coastal trough lines suggesting instability and variable winds before a weak S’ly change Thurs. The recent pattern of very strong highs moving through the Bight into the Tasman then resets over the weekend with a high likelihood of another surge of S-SE swell during this period. The southern swell window remains fairly suppressed by high pressure but there are good signs a stronger polar low later this week will send a useful long period S swell up the pipe over the weekend.

In the short run, not much change to conditions with a mod/fresh SE flow in SEQLD, slowly easing in strength as you head south from the border. We should see a period of land breezes in NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast before the sou-easter kicks up again. Still plenty of strong E-E/SE swell to 4ft with the occ. bigger set. There will be a slight easing trend though the a’noon, more noticeable into Wed. 

That E’ly swell will be on the decline through Wed as the Tasman Sea/Coral Sea fetch has been breaking up and the tropical low in the South Pacific skipped away to the SE quickly. As a result we’ll see swells easing to 3 occ. 4ft, and just slowly backing down through the day. Similar winds to Tues again with lighter winds in NENSW (morning offshores and SE breezes) slightly stronger in SEQLD although the Southern Gold Coast should expect morning W-SW breezes. 

Thurs looks like even lighter winds as a coastal trough moves north and brings a shallow S’ly tending S/SE change to temperate NSW, whilst a shallow, light S-SE flow remains embedded across the sub-tropics. Light land breezes should be widespread across the region before winds shift light/mod S’ly through the day. Wave models are suggesting a brief bump back up in size Thurs- which looks hard to justify from current synoptics although an intensification of the tropical low before it moved away is the likely source. There are so many active E’ly fetches though thats it’s worth taking it at face value with E’ly swells (slightly longer period, so better quality) showing to 3ft with an occ. bigger 4ft set. 

Similar size into Fri morning (expect slow periods due to the travel distance of the swell) with another day of favourable winds. Light morning offshores and a’noon light S’ly winds. If you can find a decent sand bank there should be plenty of fun waves Thurs and Fri. 

This weekend (May17-18)

Light winds for Sat just in advance of another major high pressure S-SE surge. Best to get in before the next round of strong S-SE winds with light morning land breezes and a’noon S’lies. Residual E’ly swells should hold 3ft sets across the region, albeit with slow periods.

We’ll review the timing through the week, but under current modelling we’ll see the next strong S’ly surge develop Sun as the next big high moving through the Bight rapidly builds a strong ridge up the eastern seaboard. That would see a brief period of lighter SW winds inshore early before S’lies kicked up to fresh/strong paces through the day, bringing a new spike in mostly short range S swell into the 4ft range, smaller into SEQLD and into protected points. 

Next week (May 19 onwards)

Early next week looks like another atypical autumn week with SE winds and a mix of mostly S-SE swells to 3-5ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, and building SE swells to 3-4ft in SEQLD. We’ll pencil that it for now and see how it looks Wed.

Model divergence then kicks in with GFS suggesting the high moves NE into the Tasman, bringing calm, light winds for temperate NSW, with an easing ridge for the sub-tropics. 

EC has a more bullish outlook with another massive high moving in from the Bight and short range feature (trough or low pressure) building in the Tasman with a powerful and broad S then SE-E fetch developing through the Tasman. Under this scenario we’re looking at a very sizey event into mid next week, possibly a sustained week of solid surf although winds will be a problem apart from the QLD points. 

With such a dynamic outlook and model divergence there’s low confidence in specifics this far out. 

The current troughiness does lend weight though to the more bullish outlook. 

We’ll come back Wed and see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!

Comments

Mata's picture
Mata's picture
Mata Tuesday, 13 May 2025 at 2:35pm

The point lined up as the tide dropped and wind died off. The sun even made a cameo appearance before the inevitable next bout of showers came through.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Tuesday, 13 May 2025 at 4:27pm

Those autumn offshores and glassy days are really MIA. Wonder if our prime autumn window will be moved back 6 weeks or so. Hope so, i imagine our winter south swells are going to be too straight for the rubbish banks

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron Tuesday, 13 May 2025 at 4:41pm

Still just shit a little north of byron, just crap. Even my son has lost interest in onshore, dirty, shitty short period, ugly, and so on. Nightmare stuff.

stevehamilton_'s picture
stevehamilton_'s picture
stevehamilton_ Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 8:35am

Lots of good waves on the GC with late arvo class offs. Lots of complaining on here

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 12:54pm

Yeh you guys have got multiple sand bypass systems and the boat out there moving sand. Nth NSW doesn't have any of that heirgo the poor banks and the lots of complaining.

stevehamilton_'s picture
stevehamilton_'s picture
stevehamilton_ Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 9:55pm

Fair enough. Must be a lot of northern nsw folks commenting then

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 10:49am

Stoked you are scoring some Steve.
Pretty grim around here.

stevehamilton_'s picture
stevehamilton_'s picture
stevehamilton_ Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 9:56pm

Yeh surprisingly good in a few places. Normally by now we have to travel down your way for waves

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 11:10am

We have waves, fun waves. Every single day.

shraz's picture
shraz's picture
shraz Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 11:15am

Goldie obviously loves the recent conditions and so do hundreds of thousands of yer best mates!

swellsam's picture
swellsam's picture
swellsam Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 3:00pm

burleighs sand the past couple of days with this east swell has been unreal. down near the pav, youd think you were surfing cape solander or something, so drainy theres even little steps at times.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 3:39pm

Sand is amazing - huge fishing hole to barrels in a couple of days

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 3:39pm

At Snapper?

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 6:44pm

Yeah Free. You couldn’t believe, was still unsurfable during Burleigh comp and then bang - sand just pushed around the corner. The key hold was like 2m deep and now people are walking out there.

Not that I surf the joint.
Some really poor banks where I normally float around.

TH's picture
TH's picture
TH Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 4:23pm

Cresso this morning the Point was super fun, 4ft+ on the sets and light offshores. Very crowded and multiple drones flying over top. Rivermouth is still disgustingly brown on the low tide though. Ear plugs all round.

Back beaches much better, however, sand needs work after the last few weeks of big swells.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 4:52pm

The surf may be shit but at least it's still pissing down.

andy-mac's picture
andy-mac's picture
andy-mac Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 5:34pm

Glorious ey!!

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 6:14pm

fmd it hasnt stopped pissing down on the sunny today,
just relentless

swellsam's picture
swellsam's picture
swellsam Thursday, 15 May 2025 at 1:12pm

the goats in town!