Continuation of strong easterly swells and windy conditions
Sidenote: Tim Bonython is bringing "Maya and the Wave" to the Big Screen next week - a docco featuring the trials & tribulations of Maya Gabeira as she achieved the World Record for the biggest wave ridden by a woman. Features a Q&A session with director Stephanie Johnes and Tim at most shows. More info/tickets here: https://event.asmf.net.au/
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 9th May)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Plenty of E and SE swell this weekend, though windy from the SE quadrant at times
- Strong E'ly swell combo for Sun/Mon, easing slowly from Tues onwards
- Light variable winds developing Tues onwards
- Long period S'ly swell for NNSW late Mon (MNC) and Tues (elsewhere)
Recap
Thursday produced very fun waves in SE Qld with a slowly building E’ly swell from 3ft to 3-4ft, and early light offshore winds ahead of developing southerly breezes into the afternoon. South of the border saw similar conditions but with more strength in the afternoon southerly, and therefore a more noticeable deterioration of conditions at exposed locations. Today has seen wave heights increase further south of the border with an additional S/SE swell to 3-5ft, on top of the pre-existing E’ly swell around 3-4ft across all coasts. Fresh and gusty S/SE winds from Yamba to the Sunshine Coast have persisted most of the day though we have seen a little less strength along the Gold Coast (and a touch more south in direction). South from Coffs, winds have been more out of the SW, allowing for a broader range of surfing options.
Nice lines showing across the Currumbin stretch this afternoon
This weekend (May10-11)
No major changes to the weekend outlook.
The dominant synoptic feature is a high pressure system in the southern Tasman Sea that’s directing a firm ridge over Northern NSW and SE Qld.
As the high moves eastwards, the ridge will slightly reorientate the fetch adjacent the coast, from the S/SE to the SE throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, tending more E’ly across the Mid North Coast. Lighter winds from the SW are possible both mornings south from about Coffs Harbour, though similar pockets are less likely in northern regions, aside from the usual exceptions such as the southern Gold Coast.
This means most exposed coasts north from Yamba will be wind affected for almost all of the weekend, so you’ll need to tuck into a sheltered southern corner or into a semi-exposed point (of which sand continues to be an issue at a few spots - though many are improving slowly).
As for size, Saturday is looking at a similar size range as per today though with a slight easing of the S/SE swell component south of the border. So, this pegs most open beaches around the 3-4ft mark again. Essentially, it should be somewhat similar to what we saw today but with that very slight anti-clockwise bias in the wind direction.
Sunday will see wave heights trend upwards thanks to an intensification of the ridge through the northern Tasman Sea on Saturday. This should produce 4-5ft waves across most open beaches, and again with a slow, incremental anti-clockwise swing in the wind direction.
As a side note, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the regional swell magnets nudge the 5-6ft mark at times, though it’s worth pointing out that anywhere picking up the bulk size will be wind affected.
Either way it’s a pretty active weekend of wind and waves so here’s hoping the longshore drift associated with this S/SE flow is helping to move some sand around the points to restore some kind of normality.
Next week (May 12 onwards)
Monday has plenty of swell on the cards and although winds will remain from the same direction as Sunday, they will ease in strength as the ridge starts to weaken. This may allow for a broader coverage of early light SW winds (though bear in mind the Sunshine Coast is rarely the beneficiary of these scenarios). The Mid North Coast is like to see light variable winds for much of the day.
As for surf, there’s actually a couple of E/NE swell sources for early next week.
Over the last few days a broad high east of New Zealand has cradled a southward-moving tropical depression south of Tahiti, resulting in a broad E’ly fetch east and south-east of Fiji. This, in addition to the aforementioned ridge in the Tasman Sea (generating Sunday’s size), will continue to provide solid 4-6ft surf across exposed beaches on Monday.
Wave heights will then gradually ease from Tuesday thru’ Thursday, by which time open beaches should still be in the 2-3ft range. So, with light variable winds expected across most coasts these three days, we can look forward to plenty of great surf across the region (banks pending, of course).
Also expected to be in the water from late Monday (Mid North Coast) into Tuesday (remaining Northern NSW coast) is a small long period S’ly swell, generated by a small but tight polar low well south of Tasmania today (see below). Set waves will be extremely inconsistent but could produce 3-4ft waves at reliable south swell magnets.
Looking further ahead, and lingering troughiness through the southern Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea isn’t currently modeled to produce anything worthwhile later in the week, however I have a sneaking suspicion that we could see a surface feature of interest develop somewhere in the eastern Tasman Sea into the longer term, i.e. mid-late next week into the weekend. Most of the ingredients will be present, all we need is some consolidation, and a trigger.
More on that in Monday’s update. Have a great weekend!
Comments
looks like snappers finally showing some forms of life. still no sign of movement from that annoying greenmount deposit of sand.
Yes mate, the bloody "foil bank" is still hanging around. Been some fun peaks inside though, reminiscent of the 80's Cheeseburger bank in front of the old Cooly Maccas
I swear the banks around here are getting worse.
Same around parts of my hood too.
Some big gutters to fill from storm bars that feel rebellious in their persistence.
Recalcitrant, even.
You said it better.
I thought "rebellious in their persistence" had a real Mike Tyson/Drederick Tatum sound to it :)
May is traditionally the maximum month for sand transport, as measured by the sand bypass system, and personal observations.
There's no sign of any longshore sand transport which could replenish inshore sand bars- just no sand available to be transported.
Certainly these SE surges and chunky swells aren't helping anything.
I’m not even interested in the surf forecast at the moment. Shit banks, dirty water.
Just give me one full week of sunshine please!
And that’s not gonna be this week……again.
Feels like I've been complaining about all this fucking rain for 5 years now because I have.
I feel like I am becoming Sprout mkII
Thoughts and prayers.
Yep, me too :(
surely it has to stop soon , ,
I just wanna mow the lawn and have a surf where I can see my feet- is that too much to ask?
Absolutely bucketing down at Mt Creek
As above I’m so sick of the years of wet wet wet.
Off to K’gari tomorrow and of course the weather isn’t playing ball for the next week either.
First world problems I know
Taking a board?
Wonder if there’ll be a wave at Waddy.
I’m thinking about it. Staying at Orchard with views of the point.
Always worth taking a board though personally I’ve never scored or seen quality waves there.
Edge of that bank always seems too raggedy.
What about a kayak, rods and crab pots for Wathumba?
Yep nothing surfable at Waddy. Been windy too. Wathumba beautiful as ever. Good swimming and no wind over there obviously. No fish so far.
How’s the sand in front of the bypasses?
There is none. No taking the easy route even at low tide. The island is closed north of Ngkala Rocks. Completely impassable up there.
Went over west side at Woralie Ck and Awinya Ck and the beach is as it ever was. Whitest sand and clearest water. Swimming in the passing showers, it was magic.
Adds a lot of time eh, especially with a bit of traffic.
Good to hear the north end is closed, Ngkala is such a shit-show with the P-plate 40 psi crew.
Do you drive down the west coast between Wathumba and Moon Point?
Looks like you'd have to be on the ball much more than the east coast but exploring those little creeks would be unreal, especially in a kayak.
Might even get some muddies.
You can drive Moon Point north to about 5 k’s south of Wathumba. Pretty good at the moment, not too soft. Some good little camp spots at the creek mouths.
there's a lake nearby that opens onto the beach and on its southern side a lot of banksias have fallen onto the beach and they must be 30 year old trees or more and rocks that have appeared that are 4ft or so high that haven't seen daylight in who knows when certainly not in the last 20 years ........so much erosion and a lot of it in the last 3 weeks
Be interesting to see. Probably have to take every bypass heading up to Orchard, even at low tide.
Despite the offshore wind obs at the nearest BOM it is straight onshore on the MNC.
What’s happening to the Magical Month of May, no sign of blue water or westerly winds, just another big high pressure system sitting in the Tasman, sending onshore rain and wind onshore for another week.
We’re not really supposed to talk about it on here but the current weather pattern is very much as what has been predicted under a warming climate. So damn depressing.
I've said it here many times, the biggest impact of changing climates has been on the autumn surf season.
Autumn has gone from being the most reliable time of the year to now sometimes being the worst season for surf in aggregate.
May. If any visitor ever asked what month to be here for surf, May. Always May, like clockwork, good old reliable May. Not anymore.
Yeah same. I'd say late April/early May.
Anyone have stats on the rain? I’d be so surprised if we’ve had more than a 2 week gap between rainy days since December…….???
Stats are sometimes misleading. In that, with rainfall for example - it's the big daily totals that stick in your head, because they're associated with flash flooding and the like.
The last few months haven't so much seen large daily totals, but instead a steady repetitive cycle of smaller, intermittent accumulations - which means the soil profile is fully saturated (leading to minor flooding events more quickly).
For example, in my hood it feels like it been "bloody well raining all week", but the daily totals over the last eight days are:
13mm, 9mm, 3mm, 2mm, 0mm, 26mm, 20mm, 9mm.
82mm in total over eight days. Nowhere near as much as it seems it's been.
And in context with what's been a wet summer/autumn (in fact, pretty much a wet last 4-5 years), it seems that the rain simply won't end.
On that point, I can't see any major changes in the pattern in the near future either.
Yeah fully. I’d almost hazard a guess that we’ve had no more than 7 ‘rain free’ days since Dec 1. We’ve had brown water since then with very intermittent reprieves on an incoming tide
1.5 meters for the year so far up the hill from Tweed. Fully saturated. The constant rain is somehow worse than the big one-off events
I’ve had a look at the records and in my zone you have to go back to July 2024 to have 14 consecutive no rain days. Since Dec has been relentlessly consistent k.
At Ballina airport at least, we haven’t had a week without rain since last September.
Spare a thought for anyone trying to grow food for a living on the north coast with this long period of ongoing showers and saturated soils
Conditions are woeful on the Tweed but sets are pushing 5-6ft now.
Unsurfable junk here but plenty of size.
Hard to say how big it is- I went to the next point north and it was breaking 600m off the beach on the cyclone storm bar.
You've got 3 weeks to clear this mess up!
Doesn’t like there’ll be much of shift any time soon:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/...
Yep over it....
one can only dream of the perfect weather, westerly all day period of june and july
Torrential rain here. Again.
Over it.
No signs of this weather pattern breaking down at all, utter shit
So over this rain!!!! Bring on westerly winds and sunny days...
chunky dawny today at a regional spot , good to see the grommets giving it a go .