South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 10th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E’ly tending NE winds through Tues into Wed- tending more E’ly later Wed and into Thurs
• Increasing chance of morning land breezes Thurs, then more likely Fri
• Slow increase in E swell likely through this week as tropical low drifts southwards and trade fetch ramps up
• Becoming sizey from Thurs
• Further increase in size over the weekend
• Light winds Sat morning tending N’ly
• Early offshores Sun before a S’ly change
• Low expected to form in Tasman this weekend, bringing a late increase in S swell Sun (MNC to North Coast most likely)
• Stronger S swell next week, possibly peaking Tues/Wed
• E swell holds into Mon, before easing out Tues/Wed
• Dynamic outlook so stay tuned for updates 

Recap

There were some  fun waves from the E over the weekend, hovering around the 3ft range both days although sets tended to be very inconsistent. Winds were light all weekend, with morning land breezes widespread on Sat, more limited to Southern Gold Coast and NENSW on Sun, before tending to light/mod E’lies (more E/NE-NE south of Yamba). Similar size surf today, albeit even more inconsistent with a niggling E’ly flow across SEQLD into NENSW, tending to light land breezes south of Yamba to the MNC. Plenty of action ahead this week. 

Cleaner south of Ballina this morning

This week (Feb 10-14)

The Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) remains in full swing with tropical lows strung along the trough line from the Indian Ocean off the Kimberley Coast into the Coral Sea. High pressure at summer latitudes, south of Tasmania, is interacting with a stalled trough off the South Coast and then expected to anchor low pressure drifting down from the Coral Sea. This low intensifies as it tracks slowly through the South Pacific slot between New Caledonia and the North Island, spraying the East coast with quality E swell. As we enter the weekend a low is expected to form in the lower Tasman, bringing S’ly winds and potentially a significant S swell into next week. Lots to look at, let’s dive in.

In the short run we’ve got a fairly straightforward outlook, especially as far as local winds go. With the high moving into the Tasman and tropical low starting to wind up and move south-eastwards we’ll see a modest ridge along the sub-tropical coast with with E-E/NE winds, tending more E/NE-NE south of the border through Tues and into Wed. By Wed a’noon and into the second half of the week we’ll see winds shift more E’ly, becoming light as the ridge relaxes along the coast. Expect bumpy surface conditions through Tues/Wed with low chances of a morning land breeze. Surface conditions may even be better mid/late morning due to very high SST's. 

Thurs is a 50/50 call at this stage, but Fri has moderate/high confidence for a morning land breeze.  

Surf-wise this week looks equally straightforwards. There’s already a wide swathe of E’ly to SE’ly winds across the Coral Sea and a developing low off the Central QLD coast tracking towards New Caledonia. That will increase windspeeds along the northern flank of a very broad trade-wind fetch smack bang in our eastern swell window. 

We should start to see a steady but slow upwards trend through Tues into Wed with a nice consistent swell consisting of a swathe of swell periods, typical of our proper trade swells. In other words, lots of waves. 

Expect size to build upwards into a consistent 3ft tomorrow, up into the 3-4ft range Wed with some 5ft sets on offer through the a’noon, tide permitting. There will be some tidal effects to deal with as tidal amplitudes ramp up in response to the full moon. 

Friday should be similar size with reasonable odds of a morning land breeze. If not, just a light E/SE flow is expected- good for the Points and workable on the beachies if you can find somewhere handling the size. 

This weekend (Feb 15-16)

The weekend looks dynamic. The slow moving low in the South Pacific slot has a very broad, almost semi-stationary fetch on its southern flank, buttressed by high pressure over New Zealand. This is likely to see a fully developed sea state with plenty of sizey mid period E swell across most of the eastern seaboard. We’ll see how it looks through the week, but for now, we should see a significant muscling up into the punchy 4-6ft range for Sat and Sun.

In addition to that, a low is likely to form in the Tasman as a strong front tied to an intense polar low tracks to the south. We’re likely to see both long period S and shorter range but stronger S swell if the Tasman Low winds up. 

Light morning W-NW breezes look likely Sat morning before a light NE flow through the day- offering potential for a handful of spots to be pumping.

A S’ly change pushes northwards Sun as the low forms, with winds freshening through the day. At this stage the change should be on the MNC around dawn, mid morning on the North Coast and reaching the QLD border around lunchtime. Offshore winds are likely through areas of SEQLD ahead of the change. 

We’ll revise through the week but at this stage an a’noon increase in new short range S swell looks confined to the MNC to North Coast with windy 3-4ft surf increasing on top of the existing E swell.

Next week (Feb17 onwards)

A chunky mix of S and E/NE swells is expected  Mon, likely in the 4-6ft range.

From there, we should see a slow easing in E swell as the tropical low will have slid off behind New Zealand. A pulse of S swell from the Tasman Low is expected Tues/Wed but it’s too far off to have confidence in specifics at this stage.

We’ll see how it looks on Wed.