South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Mar 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S/SE winds freshen into Mon with a late kick in new S swell
• Strong S swells through Tues, extending into Wed with winds slowly easing
• S/SE swell pulse Thurs with easing winds
• Should see rebuilding trade swells by Wed/Thurs, extending over the weekend and into next week at sizey levels

Recap

Not much to recap for the weekend. Tiny surf both days with light winds. Sun saw a minor increase in S swell through the a’noon in NENSW under light breezes, just enough for a grovel. Today has seen new S swell start to show ahead of schedule with 2-3ft surf across NENSW, just sneaking across the Border and light SW winds early now tending S-S/SE and freshening.  We’ll see strong S-S/SE swells dominate most of this week with improving winds. Details below. 

Small S swells just trickling over the border

This week (Mar 4-8)

We currently have a deep, winter-calibre double-headed low traversing the lower Tasman. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a long fetch of severe gales in the southern swell window and wave buoys are all in an aggressive upwards curve as strong S swells build along the Southern NSW Coastline. We’ll see strong pulses of swell from this system until Thurs with easing leftovers until the end of the working week. To the north an extended trade-wind fetch is setting up through the week with another long playing E’ly swell event from that pattern, favouring the sub-tropics for size.

In the short run we’ll see very strong S swells through tomorrow - up in the 6ft range at S exposed breaks with bigger 8ft sets at deepwater adjacent reefs, bommies and river bars. Mod/fresh S-SE winds all day as the SE surge from the high pressure ridge sets up. 

You’ll find decreasing size as you head deeper into more protected Points and Bays. 

Winds ease into Wed as the ridge relaxes with morning S-SW breezes offering clean conditions at the Points and semi-protected beachies. Still plenty of size with 4-6ft surf at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller into more sheltered Points and into SEQLD, with 3-4ft surf at S facing beaches there. We should see some E/SE swell to 2-3ft in SEQLD build in during Wed from the high pressure system and building tradewinds in the Coral Sea.

Clean conditions for Thurs morning before light SE-E/SE winds set in from mid-morning. Leftover S swells to 3-4ft, rebuilding under a fresh S/SE pulse to 3-5ft from the morning. Mixed in will be E/SE swell to 3ft, slightly bigger north of Moreton Island.

Finally, Friday sees  fun, easing S/SE and E’ly trade swells to 3-4ft. Another day of light morning winds, tending SE-E/SE during the day. Should be a full week of waves, so good luck getting amongst it. 

This weekend (Mar 9-10)

Trade-winds will be in full effect this weekend, with the fetch thickening up and a fully developed sea state likely. Under current modelling that is likely to produce E’ly swells to 3-5ft over the weekend, possibly with some sets nudging 6ft at exposed Outer swell magnets (Behind the Rock at Snapper for eg). 

No change the winds- light/mod in the morning, possibly SW-S breezes, tending mod SE-E/SE through the day. Plenty of surf on tap.

Next week (Mar 11 onwards)

Full-sized E’ly trade wind swells should offer up 4-5ft surf for at least the first half of next week under light winds tending SE-E/SE in the a’noon.

We may see some small S swells wrap in from zonal fetches Sun/Mon and Tues/Wed. We’ll see how these look during the week but flukey S pulses in the 2ft range can be pencilled in Wed and Fri. To be honest, it’s highly unlikely they will be noticeable within the prevailing strong trade-wind swell signal. 

Low pressure in the South Pacific may ramp up windspeeds across the trade-wind fetch next week suggesting stronger E quadrant swells later next week. Models have been inconsistent about the location of the low pressure and how the fetch behaves. We’ll definitely see sizey E swells through most of next week, possibly ramping up later next week depending on how these potential low pressure systems play out.

Check back Wed and see how it’s shaping up. Until then, plenty of strong S swell to deal with before this extended trade swell kicks off.