South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed Feb 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun trade swells with light morning winds Thurs/Fri (N'lies will kick in during Fri, so get in early)
• Window of good winds Sat with fun, easing trade swell
• S'ly change pushing across MNC Saturday, into SE Qld overnight
• Fun semi-exposed points in SE Qld / Nthn NSW on SUnday
• S'ly swell building across Northern NSW Sunday

Recap

We've seen unreal surf across most open beaches for the last few days, generally 3ft but with intermittent 3-4ft pulses. It's been smaller along the regional points, and conditions have been clean with light morning winds and moderate afternoon sea breezes. Hope you got a few!

This week (Feb 22 - 23)

Make the most of Thursday, as we’ve got northerlies on the menu for Friday.

They’ll be slow to develop north for about Yamba so there should be a respectable window of light NW winds favouring the wide open beaches, but the Mid North Coast will see a shorter period of workable conditions before fresh cross-shore winds restrict surfable to protected northern corners. 

Thursday should be clean all morning with only light to moderate afternoon sea breezes taking the sheen off things after lunch.

As for surf, the reinforcing trade swell of the last few days - sourced from a distant fetch - will ease back in size, to be replaced with new energy sourced from a broad ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea (see below). This fetch will extend much closer to the coast, which will ramp up the consistency a few notches (the last few days have seen lengthy breaks between sets). 

Size should manage 3ft+ across many exposed coasts both days, with smaller surf running down the points. Get into it!

This weekend (Feb 24 - 25)

The main feature for the weekend is a fresh southerly change that will reach the Mid North Coast mid-late Saturday morning, and the SE Qld region overnight into Sunday morning. 

Ahead of the change we’ll see moderate NW tending W’ly winds, so Saturday’s shaping up to offer more fun E’ly swell - however the northern ridge of the responsible high pressure system will be retreating and easing by this time, so we will see a very gradual easing of wave heights over the weekend, though not much - occasional 3ft+ sets are possible both days but I feel it’ll generally be back to a slower 2-3ft. 

Sunday also has some southerly swell on the cards, originating from two sources - a morning windswell (from Saturday’s change) and an afternoon groundswell, from the parent low as it rounds the Tasmanian corner on Saturday morning.

3-4ft sets are possible at south facing beaches (mainly south of Coffs) with smaller surf elsewhere. 

Sunday’s southerly breeze will remain fresh north from Yamba - so it’ll be a day only suitable for semi-exposed points and other sheltered spots - however we will see easing breezes tending SW along the Mid North Coast, which should open up a greater number of potential surf spots. 

Next week (Feb 26 onwards)

There’s still nothing major standing out in the long range charts at the moment.

The most interesting synoptic developments are a possible tropical cyclone in the northern Coral Sea (positioned outside of most swell windows), a strong zonal flow below the continent (again, aimed away from NSW’s swell window).

Otherwise, minor background trade swells will occupy most of next week.

See you Friday!