South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri Dec 22)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Steadily easing E'ly swells from Sat AM, easing winds becoming light and variable
• N'ly winds looking problematic from Sun thru Mon/Tues and maybe Wed
• No major swells on the horizon 

Recap

Local winds have been much more complex than anticipated in Wednesday’s notes. The southerly flow that was meant to only reach Yamba on Thursday ended up briefly crossing into into the Gold Coast, before easing back late afternoon. And we’ve seen a dominant southerly flow across all areas today. As for surf, a slow building E’ly reached a solid 3ft across some regions on Thursday, and has built a little more today, with 3-4ft sets showing across Far Northern NSW and the Gold Coast, though surf size is smaller on the Sunshine Coast and south from Yamba. We are still awaiting a late pulse of slightly stronger E’ly swell too. There is also a decent S/SE swell in the water across the Mid North Coast (Southern NSW reached 4-6ft yesty, from a Tasman Low east of Eden).

Fun waves at D'Bah this morning

The Pass looking mighty fine early Friday afternoon

This weekend (23 - 24)

An approaching inland trough will freshen northerlies about most coasts on Sunday, so make the most of Saturday.

Today’s southerly breeze will generally clear to the east and we’ll see early morning SW winds creating clean conditions. Exposed locations will probably have lingering wobble but conditions should improve as the day wears on, we’ll probably see a nice afternoon of waves in most areas. 

As for surf, the current E’ly swell is still building towards a peak, though we don’t know exactly when that will occur (as we don’t have any offshore wave buoys sitting in our swell window to validate the model guidance). It’s expected to plateau sometime overnight or maybe early Saturday (more likely across southern regions) so aim for an early surf for the most size. 

SE Qld should see 2-3ft surf (then easing) throughout Saturday, and Northern NSW is looking at bigger surf around 3-4ft (also easing). However, the Mid North Coast hasn’t yet performed as well as expected - this may just be a lag in the swell’s arrival, rather than an under performance - so let’s see what happens. 

Today’s S/SE swell will also abate across the Mid North Coast.

Looking at Sunday, and we are likely to experience a window of light variable winds early morning, mainly north from Byron. South from here we will be at risk of a developing N/NE breeze as the trough approaches, and it could become quite gusty throughout the day. 

With easing surf across the region from all sources, you’ll be best to aim early for a northern corner. 

Next week (Dec 25 onwards)

Northerly winds will ruin surf conditions Xmas Day and Boxing Day, lingering across SE Qld into Wednesday before becoming light and variable for the rest of the week. 

However, the positive - if you’re looking for one - is that there won’t be much swell around anyway. 

I’m still expecting a complex coastal trough pattern for next week. Unfortunately, it looks like it’ll be focused around Southern NSW, with any swell generating aimed into the South Coast. This means the primary source of swell early next week will be local N’ly windswell.  

So, flag the first few days of the week and await an improved surf outlook later next week. The long term trends suggest a long wave pattern may develop next weekend (leading to a renewal of southerly groundswells into the following week).

Have a great weekend!