South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 10th Nov)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Continuing E’ly trade-wind swells into the weekend under blocking high pattern
• Lighter NE winds in SEQLD, stronger in NENSW
• E’ly tradewind swells likely to slightly increase in Mon/Tues next week
• Long period S swells may show across NENSW Wed/Thurs next week, small in SEQLD
• Tracking possible tropical depression in the South Pacific next week- low confidence for being a direct swell producer but may enhance tradewind swell- check Mon for latest update

Recap

Nothing much to recap with just workable E’ly tradewind swell offering up some 2ft surf with the odd bigger one. Cleanest early under light winds before N’lies kicked up. Today is almost a carbon copy. 

A few workable beachies around

This weekend (Nov 11-12)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. Surf-wise we’ll see the small E’ly tradewind swell continue at similar levels as a large high continues to sit near New Zealand. 2ft with the occ. bigger set will be the size of it. 

Wind wise, we should see a slightly lighter flow on Sat, especially in SEQLD with E//NE-NE winds in SEQLD and a more classic mod/fresh NE flow south of the border, especially south of Tweed-Byron. 

Sunday offers more of the same expect with increasing onshore N’ly winds. As well as a slight uptick in size from the tradewind swell areas of south of Yamba will see a building trend in NE windswell through the a’noon. Up into the 2-3ft range. All told, there should be some surfable options on the weekend, especially if you have access to a backbeach offering some wind protection.

Next week (Nov 13 onwards)

A troughy change moving north o/night Sun/Mon looks to wash out  on the way up the NSW Coast,likely stalling just south of the Border. Under that scenario we’ll see S-SE winds below the trough, weak variable winds around the trough line and N’lies persisting in SEQLD, at a lower level. E’ly tradewind swell continues in the 2-3ft range.

Much stronger frontal activity in the Far Southern Tasman tied to a deep, slow moving low will provide some long period S’ly groundswell pulses next week, favouring NENSW, although winds are looking very tricky around a troughy pattern. 

Winds should tend N-NE on Tues after early light winds and start to freshen, increasing further into Wed, and producing some small NE windswell favouring the MNC. 

2-3ft tradewind swell chugs away on Tues and into Wed. 

We’ll see some longer period S swell fill in on Wed, up to 3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW with the odd bigger set and smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Winds look tricky as a trough moves up the coast with a tendency for NW-W winds late in the day possible. We’ll revise on Mon.

S’ly winds look likely to reach the border Thurs as the trough is displaced by a front. A morning peak in S’ly groundswell to 3-4ft in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD is expected. In the mix will be some NE windswell and easing E’ly tradewind swell also in the 2ft range.

Tasman Sea continues to generate at least small S swell pulses into the end of next week. 

A strong high moving into the Tasman next weekend also looks to build E/NE winds in the Northern Tasman and more local NE winds off the NSW Coast, suggesting another round of NE windswell and E/NE swell later next weekend.

There’s some suggestion from GFS that remnants of a TC or tropical depression may drift south from Fiji into the swell window and may supply some long range E’ly swell in the medium term. Low confidence in that outcome.

We’ll see how it all looks on Mon, until then, have a great weekend!