South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon 2nd Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building NE windswells Tues, biggest overnight Wed, solid but easing from Thurs (most size on the MNC)
• Small E/NE swell in the mix north of Yamba mid-week
• Poor conditions Tues/Wed with gusty N'ly winds, reaching gale force Wed
• Excellent conditions for the beachies in most regions Thurs as winds swing NW, though there could be a lag on the Sunny Coast early AM
• Small fun leftovers Fri with winds around to the south
• Building S'ly swells over the weekend with small clean waves at protected spots

Recap

Saturday delivered early light offshore winds and a mix of east and south swells, biggest south of the border with 2-3ft sets from the south, smaller to the north, but northerlies wrecked things after mid-morning. The northerly regime continued through Sunday with declining swells, and the same pattern has repeated today north of Yamba with very little swell energy on offer, and fresh northerly winds. However a southerly change did push through the lower Mid North Coast early morning, reaching Yamba around 1:30pm (it's expected to peter out south of Ballina). 

Lotta northerly wind on the Gold Coast today, not much swell though

This week (Oct 3 - 6)

Main feature on the synoptic charts is a strengthening N'ly fetch adjacent the NSW coast, between a Tasman high and an approaching front through the Bight. It's one of the strongest N'ly local fetches we've seen in a while and will consequently deliver a punchy, sizeable NE windswell during the middle of the week, biggest to the south (smallest with increasing northerly latitude).

Unfortunately, local conditions look terrible as this windswell builds. Starting off small early Tuesday, northerlies will be moderate before freshening throughout the day, becoming strong on the Mid North Coast into the afternoon, and then reaching gale force strength into Wednesday. We'll see slightly less wind across the Northern Rivers and into SE Qld but it'll still be enough to significantly deteriorate surfing conditions. 

As for size, the models are overcooking things (mainly due to windswell contamination) however we should see a peak in size late Wednesday around 4-5ft at NE facing beaches south from Coffs, 3-4ft across Northern NSW and 2-3ft throughout SE Qld. In fact, slightly bigger waves are possible at the height of the event but this is expected to occur overnight Wednesday.

SE Qld will concurrently see a small easterly trade swell in the mix from a broad ridge across the Northern Tasman that's expected to strengthen across the southern Coral Sea. However no major size is expected from this source.

Thursday morning is shaping up to be a great day of waves, thanks to an overnight swing in the wind to the NW (tending W'ly along the Mid North Coast) as a low pressure system develops off the Far Southern NSW coast. Size wise should be similar to what I'm expecting late Wednesday, that is, 4-5ft sets across the Mid North Coast, slightly smaller surf across the Northern Rivers (3-4ft+) and 3ft+ surf throughout SE Qld from the NE and E/NE swell combo. 

The only concern for local winds on Thursday is the Sunshine Coast, which may slightly lag the southern regions with the swing to the NW (so, early N'lies are possible). But it will improve throughout the day. 

It's also worth pointing out that NW winds won't favour the points either, so Thursday is a day best suited for the beachbreaks, with a rare oversupply of lefts winding down the coast. 

Afternoon N'lies are a risk throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW however we'll see favourable conditions persist all day south of Ballina.

Moving into Friday, and a shallow SW tending S'ly change will slide up the coast as a smaller mix of easing NE and E/NE swells offers 2-3ft+ sets at most open beaches, smaller later. This will provide better conditions for semi-exposed points.

Into the afternoon, the Mid North Coast will see the first signs of a new south swell arriving, generated by gale to storm force W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait (around the parent Tasman Low) early Thursday, plus a secondary southerly swell from an associated fetch off Tasmania's East Coast. This southerly swell will show best over the weekend but we may see some 3ft+ sets at south swell magnets south of Coffs by the end of the day.

This weekend (Oct 7 - 8)

On Friday, the Tasman Low (off the Far Southern NSW Coast) will receive a polar injection from a passing front in the Southern Ocean, which will broaden the main fetch on its western flank, though it will be under an unfavourable easterly track.

Nevertheless, it'll maintain strong southerly swells that will build Saturday, and hold into Sunday thanks to an active SW frontal regime through the lower south-eastern Tasman Sea.

South facing beaches south of Byron should build to 3-5ft late Saturday (smaller earlier) though fresh southerly winds will create poor conditions at these spots, both days. Locations not open to the south will be much smaller though cleaner.

Expect similar conditions on Sunday, with a brief window of morning SW winds. 

North of the border, the south swell won't really get in very well though there'll be some small levels of east swell in the water. Exposed south facing beaches and northern ends should pick up wind affected 3ft+ sets (smaller early Saturday) but most beaches will probably max out around the 2ft mark from the southerly swell, plus a similar levels of residual easterly swell.

Next week (Oct 9 onwards)

Persistent S/SE swells from the anchored Tasman fronts will maintain 3-5ft surf into Monday throughout Northern NSW's south facing beaches, with much better conditions as winds become light and variable. Expect smaller surf (as per the weekend) in SE Qld with little runners along the semi-exposed points. Swell direction should have a smidge more east (of south) in it which should assist things north of the border, but keep your expectations in check.

Otherwise, we have lots of activity expected in the Southern Ocean from the weekend into next week which suggest a healthy supply of useful long period southerly groundswell for Northern NSW, though no major size is expected. Late Wed/Thurs appear to offer the peak size of the week from this region, though I'll revise this in Wednesday's update.

Light winds are expected until Wednesday, Thursday onwards wil see a resumption of the northerly flow.

See you Wednesday!