Lots of action ahead as active monsoon trough supplies low pressure to Coral Sea

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 30th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Mix of S swells Wed, with building short range SSE-SE swell later in the day as low pressure trough forms off CQ/Fraser Coast
  • More building SE-ESE swell Thurs, peaking Fri/Sat with chunky surf favouring the Points
  • Strong ESE swell gradually fades out Sun into Mon, and Tues with winds becoming light and beachies opening up
  • Looking like a second low forms off CQ Coast early next week, with another pulse of E swell Tues or Wed- possibly sizey
  • Possible large low pressure area in Tasman later next week with plenty of S swell
  • Possible fetch near North Island later next week
  • Check back Fri for updates- lots of action to keep tabs on!

Recap

Not much on offer since Mon with early offshore winds yesterday tending fresh S-SSE through the day, with a small late increase in SSE swell. Today is seeing increasing SE winds as a low pressure trough starts to deepen off the CQ coast. That is seeing some increased short range SE swell, along with a few S-SSE swell trains which are topping out around 2-3ft at NENSW S exposed breaks. We’ll see a much bigger increase in size over the remainder of the week as the low meanders SE and strong SE winds occupy a large area of the Southern Coral Sea.

Not great, but surfable on the border

This week (Nov 30- Dec 2)

We are seeing the “schizoid” pattern now develop whereby a monsoonal trough is splitting off a low pressure trough along the CQ coast, supported by a high pressure belt from the Bight to the Tasman Sea, while fronts and a parent low are entering the lower Tasman. That is seeing a regime where both S swells and a developing E’ly swell event are both in play across most of the Eastern Seaboard. S’ly swells are dominating the temperate coast while the more sub-tropical areas are under the influence of developing short range swells as the low pressure trough winds up through today.

In the short run and it’s not a complicated outlook. The trend in wave heights will be up.The developing low pressure trough and supporting high will see a fetch of SE-ESE winds start to build off the SEQLD coast bringing fresh SE winds onto the coast and building short-range SE-ESE swell through tomorrow. You’ll need to tuck in behind the headlands for wind protection and through the day we should see outer Points build into the  3-4ft range, with bigger messier surf on open beaches.

The building trend continues into Fri with size getting up into the 5-6ft range bigger 6ft+ on the beaches, grading smaller into more sheltered Inner Points and Bays. With the fetch so close to the coast but also beginning to elongate out into the Coral Sea there will be that typical mix of longer wavelength ESE swells and shorter period SE windswell in the mix. That will keep a steady conveyer belt of waves rolling down the Points, of varying quality, depending on how exposed they are to continuing fresh SE winds.

This weekend (Dec 3-4)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The trough of low pressure off the QLD coast will supply plenty of size to the sub-tropics although an easing trend is expected as the trough weakens and either dissipates or moves slowly out towards New Zealand. Either scenario will see a slow easing in size over the weekend with coastal winds expected to moderate. 

Expect lighter SSE-SE winds Sat with a small chance of a brief morning SW’er around Coolangatta. Size in the 3-5ft range should back down a notch during the day, and expect smaller surf into more sheltered Points.

Sun offers a better chance of a morning offshore breeze, more likely on the Southern Gold Coast and NENSW, before mod SE winds kick in again, likely tending more ESE-E through the a’noon. Size in the 3ft+ range is expected with semi-protected beachie and break walls coming on line.

Next week (Dec 5 onwards)

Models are really struggling to resolve the remnants of the low pressure trough next week , so revisions are likely on Fri. 

The remnants of the old trough and a potential new trough budding off the monsoon trough line off the CQ coast are likely to impact sub-tropical regions possibly as early as Tues, with Mon seeing fun ESE swell in the 2-3ft range and light ESE winds.

We’re likely to see the secondary low track S through Tues, possibly bringing an increase in new E swell. GFS has a later movement south and a bigger increase, up into the 6-8ft range through Wed.

EC has a more modest increase on Tues, back into the 4ft range. So far, the more conservative estimates have been more accurate so we’ll maintain a cool bias and see how it’s shaping up on Fri.

This low then moves south and washes out in the Northern Tasman, holding fun sized surf through Thurs.

There’s broad model consensus the trough and washed out low will form a large, cut-off low in the lower Tasman later next week (see below), with GFS suggesting a much more bullish outlook which would see strong S swell developing from late Fri into the 6ft range.

EC has a more modest system but would still see some significant S swell develop during the same time frame.

We also may see remnants of a low pressure system reform near the North Island later next week with potential for some longer range E swell so we’ll keep tabs on that and report back on Fri.

There’s a lot to keep an eye on, so check back in then.

Comments

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022 at 4:08pm

Cheers Freeride. Looking forward to Friday onwards.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022 at 4:09pm

Yeah, me too.

Got a couple of weeks off, so I'm going to do some day-o/n trips.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022 at 4:54pm

Where to?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022 at 5:51pm

Just in the f/cast region- SEQLD/NENSW

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022 at 5:55pm

You pass.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022 at 9:16pm

Pitty about this strong wind all week. Going to confine surfing to one single place which is where everyone will end up to feast especially after a lay week or 3.

toncie's picture
toncie's picture
toncie Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022 at 9:21pm

Yep

boogiefever's picture
boogiefever's picture
boogiefever Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022 at 11:50pm

............

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 7:53am

Gurus - a question please. Over the past days, the forecast charts have had a strong ridge forming west of the divide - is that the synoptic feature that keeps the low out to sea?
Looking at the current chart on windy seems the ridge is a little slow in forming.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 8:09am

It's more so the ridge sliding in quickly across the south of the country and then into the Tasman Sea. The deepening inland low across Western Australia also helps push it on its way east.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 11:41am

Copy thanks.
Cold today where I am, have to be some December records being threatened.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 9:22am

Hey guys, old mate on the GC surf report has the tides back to front. Low today 0810 - High 1447.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 9:36am

Weird, will change.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 10:44am

Report from bed this morning? Can't say I'd blame him :)

simsurf's picture
simsurf's picture
simsurf Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 10:37am

Rainbow was fun on the log this morning. Not many people either.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 10:54am

Both major models now progging stronger system with higher windspeeds overnight into tomorrow.

Due to the proximity=size axiom, that will highly likely see a couple of extra feet on the top end of size tomorrow.
ie 6-8ft.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 11:30am

Solid! Cheers for the update

simsurf's picture
simsurf's picture
simsurf Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 1:41pm

I think most of the swell will go straight past....

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 1:48pm

East swell. Straight past where?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 2:53pm

Step ladder sets throughout the morning here today.

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 2:16pm

surfed one of the middle points on the sc mid morning , fun waves but swell seemed to lack a bit of punch , maybe it will muscle up in the coming days

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 2:54pm

It' just the locally generated stuff this morning. More juice coming over the coming days as the fetch lengthens.

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 6:06pm

yeah kinda thought that but was really surprised at the lack of punch ,
still there's waves, which is better than the last week. crowd was pretty light too

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 2:19pm

Looks like a fairly rapid building trend over the last hr or so.

Offset by high tide, somewhat.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 3:16pm

Banks will be an issue. Some deep holes at majority of the points.

Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 3:59pm

Just need that fetch to creep a bit further south so MNC can get in on the action

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 4:35pm

You'll get some swell once that fetch lengthens out into the Coral Sea and the low moves a little offshore throughout tomorrow and Sat.

Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Thursday, 1 Dec 2022 at 5:06pm

Let's hope so Don. Hopefully enough juice to light up the right places

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 2 Dec 2022 at 6:45am

Fark!

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 2 Dec 2022 at 6:47am

All the good action is on the north kirra cam at the moment

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 2 Dec 2022 at 6:50am

Yeah, not many at Kirra.
Some bombs out the back at Snapper but mostly surfable through mid Super-y.

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted Friday, 2 Dec 2022 at 1:42pm

Plenty of swell on the MNC but the SE winds were up early and made a mess of it.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 2 Dec 2022 at 2:20pm

did a couple of laps at kirra this morning. Def not classic Kirra but nice to be in the juice.