South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 22nd July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Surf becoming XL and stormy Fri, surfable at only the most protected Points with fresh SE winds
• Large surf continues over the weekend, peaking Sat and easing in SEQLD, remaining large in NENSW
• S’ly winds fresh both days, easing Sun
• Renewal in size Mon in NENSW from SE-ESE with winds rapidly improving 
• Plenty of leftover size Tues with offshore winds
• More S swell, possibly sizey in NENSW, from Thurs onwards

Recap

A straight onshore flow has kept surf quality low since Wed. Size was in the 3-4ft range, persisting into today with a straight E’ly flow creating surfable gurgle. Waves for the keen. There’s much more size ahead as a Coral Sea low starts to track South into the Tasman Sea over the weekend. Details below. 

Christmas in July at QLD's most famous secret spot

Some kegs to be had in amongst the wash-throughs

This weekend (July 23-24)

East Coast or hybrid low is now drifting towards Fraser Island, anchored by a huge high (1038hPa) just east of Tasmania. Thats directing gales towards SEQLD, and a broad fetch of E/SE winds as far south as the Hunter. The system tracks SE over the weekend, aiming up gales more directly at temperate NSW before deepening in a form of extra-tropical transition through Sun/Mon and then slowly weakening through Tues. That will equal a spike of elevated wave heights over the next 36-48hrs, easing quickly in SEQLD, with more S’ly oriented swells next week.

With the low tracking south overnight we’ll see a morning peak in E swell in the 8ft range, grading smaller into more sheltered Points with strong to gale force S’lies, easing though the a’noon. This will correspond with a shift in swell direction to the SE, which will see a rapid decrease in size across most of the SEQLD Points, beginning with the Sunshine Coast and propagating south through the day. 

Conversely NENSW will see an increase in size through the day, from large SE swell trains and the initial E’ly swell. Expect solid 8ft+ surf to persist through the day there.

Fresh S’lies continue Sun, likely SW inshore early across Far Northern NSW and into the Gold Coast. Strong ESE/SE swell continues, in the 6ft+ range in NENSW, grading smaller 4-5ft on the Gold Coast and smaller 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast. The winds will still be an issue but with a bit of looking around a few more options than just crowded Points should be available, albeit with a bit of work involved.

Expect surf to ease across the SEQLD coast through the a’noon, with another pulse of SE swell boosting wave heights in NENSW up into the 5-6ft range, later in the a’noon.

Next week (July 25 onwards)

As mentioned above, the low reintensifies as it tracks towards the North Island (suggesting a hybrid warm-cored system initially), with gales aimed back towards temperate NSW primarily. That will favour the Mid North Coast for maximum size in these later pulses, with diminishing size the further north you are, more marked north of the border.

That’ll see plenty of size Mon across NENSW, with a strong  SE groundswell holding size in the 4-6ft range, smaller 3-5ft on the Gold Coast and 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast. Winds ease back to lighter S’lies, likely SW inshore early and tending to a’noon sea breezes.

Tuesday sees a true offshore flow, with light W’lies likely extending well into the day, tending to light sea breezes in the a’noon. Expect strong SE groundswell to continue in the 4-5ft range across NENSW, grading smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD,  with potentially a few larger sets, slowly easing down through the a’noon. Pencil in Tues.

By Mid week we’ll see S’lies kick in a cold front pushes further north, with a small surface low potentially forming off the Central Coast. Expect residual SE swell in the 4ft range and a chance of new shorter range S swell through the a’noon, although winds will be a problem.

Longer term and into the end of next week we’ll see plenty of swell energy from the S to SE as the low complex linger near New Zealand with a fetch SE winds extending under the South Island back into the Tasman Sea.

We’ll need to finesse these calls early next week but under current modelling we are looking at size in the 3-4ft range Thurs, easing back to 3ft Fri and into Sat.

Cold fronts sweeping into the Tasman are likely to see periodic wind shifts from W to SW to S’ly but there should be plenty of  clean windows available.

Into next weekend and we’re likely to see a brief pause in the action Sat PM into Sun before more S swell energises the Tasman Sea.

Check back Mon for details and have a great weekend!